The 2024 NCAA Tournament – The Wild Wild West Region – Sports Betting

• The Spartans probably should not have made the NCAA tournament based on resume.   That really isn’t the question for me.   When you look at overall strength, I think that sparty might have the edge.
• Michigan State ranks higher than Mississippi State in most of the efficiency sites.   I also give the experience advantage for the players and the coach to Izzo and the Spartans.
• Michigan State will have advantages scoring from near proximity ranking 22nd in the league on Haslametrics to 204th for Mississippi State.
• I also like the fact that Michigan State had to hear the whole week that they do not belong.
• Take Sparty

Michigan State -1 – 2 stars

Charleston vs Alabama -9.5 O/U 173.5

• This should be a fun high flying matchup between two very fast pace teams.
• After watching Alabama lose four of their last six games.   Three by over 100 points, one must ask themselves if this team might slow it down a little.   I am not so sure about that, but what I will say is that Alabama’s defense is trash ranking an abysmal 112th in efficiency on Kenpom.   They can’t rebound all that well while they do not force turnovers.
• Now Charleston’s defense is quite bad as well, but I also think that the Cougars can play some with the tide as long as they can match score for score.   Charleston ranks 58th in offensive efficiency and they do not turn the ball over.
• Alabama has had some issues with turnovers and allowing steals ranking 248th in steal percentage.
• Now I would probably call Charleston a poor man’s Alabama in this easy CAA conference, but I also could see this team making some wind during the first half.

Lean Charleston 1st half +5.5

TCU vs Utah State +4 O/U 150.5

• I do not understand why TCU is such a large favorite.   Utah State checks a lot of boxes here.
• The Aggies should be able to score inside on the Frogs ranking 41st in adjusted near proximity tots to 128th for TCU defending them.
• The Frogs have a solid offense, but they tend to turn the ball over too much ranking 238th in the nation.
• Utah State is pretty tall inside and should be able to pull down some rebounds and hang with TCU.

Utah State +4 – 2 stars

Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary’s -5.5 O/U 151.5

• Well we have two mid-major schools facing off together.   Both have won their conference tournaments and both will be looking to make some noise.
• To be completely honest, I am not seeing a huge talent advantage at Saint Mary’s and I have some concerns with their health as Starting Forward Joshua Jefferson is out for the season and their depth at center in Harry Wessels might be on the shelf as well.  This may affect their rebounding against GCU who themselves rank 30thi in offensive reboudning percentage.
• GCU gets to the foul line quite frequently ranking 5th in attempts.  This would be bad if Saint Mary’s being already short handed gets into foul trouble.
• Grand Canyon has playedfour top 100 teams in the non-conference winning three of them against San Francisco, San Diego State and LA Tech with their only loss to South Carolina.  Saint Maries hasn’t fared as well losing to San Diego State, Utah, Xavier and Boise State.   Their best win besides Gonzaga was against New Mexico.
• Take the Lopes

Grand Canyon +5.5 – 1.5 stars and ML +200 – .5 stars