The 2025 Belmont Stakes – Preview & Picks – Sports Betting

Race Time:

• Date: Saturday, June 7, 2025 ⏰ Post Time: 7:04 p.m. ET 📺 Broadcast: Fox 📡 Live Streaming: & Fox Sports app

Preview:

The 2025 Belmont Stakes, the final leg of the Triple Crown is upon us today at Saratoga Race Course instead of Belmont Park due to ongoing renovations. The race will be run at 1.25 miles instead of the traditional 1.5-mile distance.  There are a total of eight horses in this race which is a bit lower than I had expected.

Key Contenders:

• Journalism (8-5 favorite) – Won the Preakness Stakes after finishing second in the Kentucky Derby.
• Sovereignty (2-1 odds) – Won the Kentucky Derby but skipped the Preakness.
• Baeza (4-1 odds) – Finished third in the Kentucky Derby.
• Rodriguez (6-1 odds) – Trained by Bob Baffert, missed the first two Triple Crown races due to a foot bruise.

Race Dynamics:

• Journalism and Sovereignty are expected to be the top contenders, with their rivalry shaping the race.
• Rodriguez and Crudo are expected to set the early pace, potentially disrupting the favorites.
• The shorter distance at Saratoga could favor horses with tactical speed rather than pure stamina.

Weather:

• The weather at the track will be a crisp 67 degrees with rain until about 2PM.   The rain will clear up 2pm which is a good four to five hours before post time.  I expect more of a wet track but not necessarily sloppy.

Predictions:

Nobody loves having to bet the favorites in horse racing, but I honestly think that this is a two horse race between the Kentucky Derby winning Sovereignty and the Preakness winner Journalism.   I rate them both as equal being that Sovereignty had a longer layoff.   Both of these horses have run the fastest Beyers speed figures of all the three year old thoroughbreds to date.  Some say that Journalism would have beaten Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby had this horse had a better trip.  I am not 100% sure on that, but I do know that the six horse Baeza was also coming in to attempt a big finish and ended up third.  I think that Baeza is worth a look with Flavien Prat as the Jockey.  Prat, right now, is probably the best jockey in the field.  I have a third spot reserved for Baeza as I think that he is the third best horse in this race.  I will however have Baeza in a trifecta savor box with the other two favorites.  The way that I will construct my ticket is to have the big exacta box with Journalism and Sovereignty.  I will have Baeza at third with a few other combinations at the show spot as I think that the only other three horses that can hit the board are Rodriguez, Crudo, and Hill Road.  Here is my ticket for a total of $150.  Best of luck everyone!