The 3M Open Preview & Picks

July 20, 2021

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In the last major of the year, Colin Morikawa has won the Claret Jug. Louie Oosthuizen led The Open for the first three rounds but, failed to capture the title after posting a +1 on Sunday. Morikawa is now the “Champion Golfer of the Year” becoming the first men’s golfer in history to win his debut at two separate major events. If that wasn’t impressive enough, he also became just the eighth golfer ever to win two majors before the age of 25. Jordan Spieth wound up finishing second with Louie Oosthuizen and Jon Rahm tied for third. We finished the week -0.58 Units, making our total for the year +4.6 Units.

The 3M Open will be at full capacity after last years tournament was unable to have fans due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. The PGA Tour has officially eliminated testing after the British Open so we will not see anything like we saw at the Memorial. In that tournament Jon Rahm was leading by six strokes headed into the final round before being forced to withdraw after a positive test.

The 3M Open was inaugurated in 2019. Prior to that, TPC Twin Cities hosted the 3M Championship which was a Champions tour event from 1993-2008. The 3M Open is the PGA TOUR’s first regular stop in Minnesota in five decades. As one of the newer tournaments on the tour, they’ve taken a great approach to trying to grow the event and game. On hole 17, they added sky boxes with a goal of trying to mimic the famed rowdy par-3 16th hole at the Waste Management Open. They’re also thinking of adding a fishing pier in the middle of the course that can be used by fans. Tournament director Mike Welch is quoted as saying “What we want this to be known for is the Minnesota event of the summer” and I have to say, I think they’re on the way to making that happen. This is exactly the fan engagement that golf needs to attract a broader audience.

We also have a decent field with over twenty of the worlds top golfers will be in attendance led by Dustin Johnson, the No. 1 golfer in the world according to WGR. Michael Thompson captured the 2020 3M Open with a final round of 4-under 67. He won his second tournament on the PGA years, seven years after his first. A major key to his victory and something to keep an eye on when approaching this week, was his putting. He led the tournament in strokes gained putting with a rank of +7.275. In addition to putting, he also only had three bogeys in his four rounds. Thompson has not been in great form as of late missing the cut in two of his last three events. Another thing to keep in mind, with the favorite Dustin Johnson, is he failed to reach the weekend last year in this event, missing the cut. One player who does love this course is Matthew Wolff. Wolff won the inaugural 3M Open in 2019 where he set a course record and finished T12 in 2020. Another player who has had some success in this event is Tony Finau, he was T23 in 2019 and T3 in 2020.

Another thing to note, is that this tournament last year was not prior to The Open Championship. The closest major to this tournament was the PGA Championship which was played three weeks later. The fatigue factor may be an issue for some guys who played in all four rounds at The Open and have to fly back to the US only to play again four days later. This tournament is also the week before the Olympics, so any player who is field for the Olympics in Japan, will not be here. There is also not a PGA Tour event next week in recognition of the Olympics.

Some notable withdraws are: Brian Harman, Jason Kokrak, Brandon Grace, Seamus Power, Peter Uihlein

Tournament Information:

Dates: July 22, 2021- July 25, 2021
Location: Blaine, Minnesota, United States
Course: TPC Twin Cities
Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 7,431 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 & Ties Make The Cut
Greens: Bentgrass
Fairways: Bentgrass
Purse: $6,600,000 / Winner $1.18 Million
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Stimpmeter: 12
Avg. Green Size: 6,500 sq. ft.
Water Hazards: 27
Bunkers/ Waste Area: 72 bunkers, Bluegrass/fescue rough 3″
Stroke Average:
- 2019: 69.455 (-1.545)

Course History:

The course was originally a sod farm that was transformed to a championship golf course by Arnold Palmer Design Co with consultation from Minnesota native, Tom Lehman. Before the inaugural tournament in 2019, the course underwent a renovation. During that renovation, they lengthened the course, narrowing fairway lines, repositioned tees and bunkers, and added more space for grandstands and spectators.

Course Guide:

TPC Twins Cities is apart of the Tournament Players Club (TPC) a group of courses owned by the PGA Tour. TPC courses are designed for amateur golfers who want to play the courses they see the pros playing on TV.

As with most TPC layouts, this course has a fairly straight forward set up with water coming into play on most of the holes. TPC Twin Cities has four Par 3’s with two having a stroke average under par (Holes 4, 8) and having stroke average over par (Holes 13, 17). If wind is a factor, as expected Hole 8 can be more difficult with the cross wind coming into play. In terms of Par 4’s, this course has eleven of them with six having stroke average under par (Holes 1,5,10,14,15,16) and 5 having stroke average over par (Holes 2,3,7,9,11). The Par 4’s are the most critical on this course with the winner needing to capitalize on birdie opportunities. Hole 7 has had a new tee installed adding about 80 yards in length during the renovation. Even though it only is listed at 372, off the tee accuracy is key here. A lake lines the fairway on the left while the right is very tight with the out of bounds stakes close on the right. The green is also surrounded by bunkers making a difficult approach shot. Speaking of difficult approach shots, Hole 14 has one of the most challenging ones on the course. The green is close to the water that usually has a cross wind that pushes the ball in that direction. TPC Twin Cities has three Par 5’s with all three playing under stroke average under par (Holes 6,12,18). Hole 6 is a Par 5 as mentioned, that plays nearly 600 yards. While most of the long hitters can reach the green in two, it is very challenging to do so as the green is surrounded by bunkers on the right and water on the left. Hole 18 is also an interesting hole with players having to decide how risky they want to be off the tee in terms of going over the lake. As if the lake wasn’t a challenge enough, the fairway is lined with bunkers on the opposite placing an emphasis on driving accuracy here. TPC Twin Cities is generally regarded as one of the easier courses on tour, with the past two winners coming in at -21 and -19.

This course also features pure bentgrass greens which is quite unusual and will cause the ball to roll a bit quicker than players are used to. This makes calculating the distance on approach shots even more critical. TPC Twin Cities is also at 900 feet of elevation, and with thinner air, it will also cause the ball to fly a bit further. TPC Twin cities has received a lot of rain as of late, making for soft greens. Players should be able to attack the pin locations this week. We should see this years winner around -20.

In-Play/ Live Betting Angles:

If you’re looking for some in play angles, Holes 1 and 15 have the lowest stroke average for Par 4’s. Hole 12 has the lowest stroke average for Par 5’s. On those holes, you should look at betting a player for birdie or better if the odds are + money. Especially, if that player is in great form that week (approach shots/ putting well). Holes to avoid when betting on players for birdie or better are Holes 3 and 9 as they have the highest strokes average over par.

Also the past two winners have been tied for the lead heading into the final round. If you’re looking to back someone come Sunday, I would advise looking at the top of the leaderboard depending on the price.

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

Architect: Arnold Palmer and Tom Lehman
Comparable Courses:
- TPC Sawgrass
- TPC River Highlands
- TPC Deere Run
- TPC Scottsdale
- TPC Summerlin
- TPC Craig Ranch
- Detroit Golf Club
- Sherwood CC
- Greenbrier
- PGA National

TV Information:

Round 1: Thursday, July 22, 2021 – Golf Channel* – 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM
Round 2: Friday, July 23, 2021 – Golf Channel* – 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM
Round 3: Saturday, July 24, 2021 – Golf Channel* – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM and CBS** – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
Round 4: Sunday, July 25, 2021 – Golf Channel* – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM and CBS** – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM

Weather:

Thursday: Partly Cloudy 80 F, 8 mp/h S, 52% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
Friday: Partly Cloudy 81 F, 8 mp/h SSE, 53% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
Saturday: Partly Cloudy 80 F, 8 mp/h NNE, 53% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
Sunday: Partly Cloudy 79 F, 9 mp/h N, 46% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain

Key Statistics:

Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Par 4 Scoring
Greens in Regulation %
Driving Accuracy
Scrambling
Bogey Avoidance
Par 4: Birdie or Better %
Birdie or Better Conversion
Approaches from 175-200 yards

Average Key Stats (previous 2 winners):

2020, Michael Thompson (-19)
- SG Off the Tee: 51st, SG Approach: 4th, SG Around the Green: 53rd, SG Tee to Green: 17th, SG Putting: 1st.
2019, Matthew Wolff (-21)
- SG Off the Tee: 21st, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 18th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 39th.

Previous Winners & Prices: