The 150th edition of The Open at St. Andrews did certainly not disappoint. It looked like a two horse race going into the final round between Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland but that wasn’t the case at all. Cam Smith, went nuclear on the back nine shooting six under par win by a stroke.
Following The Open Championship we head to TPC Twin Cities for the 3M Open. Given that it’s the week after a major-championship, we don’t have a great field. In the three editions of this event, we’ve seen longshots have success here. It’s not the most glamorous events by any means, but it does provide an opportunity to find those under the radar players.
Tournament Information:
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Dates: July 21st, 2022 – July 24th, 2022
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Location: Blaine, Minnesota, United States
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Course: TPC Twin Cities
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Course Type: Midwest/ Parkland
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Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
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Length: 7,431 yards
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Format: 72 hole stroke play
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Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
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Greens: Bentgrass .110″
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Fairways: Bentgrass .300″
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Rough: Bentgrass/ Fescue 4″
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Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
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Purse: $7,500,000/ $1,350,000 Winner
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FedEx Cup Points: 500
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Bunkers: 72
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Water Hazards: 27 (In-Play on 15 Holes)
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Average Green Size: 6,500 sq. ft.
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Course Scoring Average:
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2021: 70.44 (-0.56), Rank 24 of 51
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2020: 69.95 (-1.05), Rank 23 of 41
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2019: 69.46 (-2.54), Rank 36 of 49
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Historic Cut Line:
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2021: -2
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2020: -2
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2019: -3
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Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
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Course Architect: Arnold Palmer (2000)
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Renovation Architect: Steve Wenzloff (2018)
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Comparable Courses:
TV Information:
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Round 1: Thursday, July 21st, 2022
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Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 5:00 PM ET
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Round 2: Friday, July 22nd, 2022
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Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 5:00 PM ET
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Round 3: Saturday, July 23rd, 2022
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Golf Channel – 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM ET
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CBS – 2:00 PM – 5:00 PM ET
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Round 4: Sunday, July 24th, 2022
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Golf Channel – 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM ET
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CBS – 2:00 PM – 5:00 PM ET
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Weather:
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Thursday: Sunny 78 F, 13 mp/h NW, 44% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
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Friday: Partly Cloudy 80 F, 8 mp/h WSW, 45% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
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Saturday: Isolated Thunderstorms 76 F, 7 mp/h NNE, 54% Humidity, 30% Chance of Rain
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Sunday: AM Showers 73 F, 9 mp/h N, 60% Humidity, 30% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The 3M Open debuted on the PGA Tour in 2019. Prior to that, TPC Twin Cities hosted the 3M Championship which was a Champions tour event from 1993-2018. The 3M Open is the PGA TOUR’s first regular stop in Minnesota in five decades. As one of the newer tournaments on the tour, they’ve taken a great approach to trying to grow the event and game. On hole 17, they added sky boxes with a goal of trying to mimic the famed rowdy par-3 16th hole at the Waste Management Open.
The course was originally a sod farm that was transformed to a championship golf course by Arnold Palmer Design Co with consultation from Minnesota native, Tom Lehman. Before the inaugural tournament in 2019, the course underwent a renovation. During that renovation, they lengthened the course, narrowed fairway lines, repositioned tees and bunkers, and added more space for grandstands and spectators.
72-Hole Record: 263, Matthew Wolff (2019)
18-Hole Record: 62, Scott Piercy (1st Rd, 2019), Bryson Dechambeau (2nd Rd, 2019), Matt Wolff (3rd Rd, 2019), Lucas Glover (4th Rd, 2019)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC Twins Cities is apart of the Tournament Players Club (TPC) a group of courses owned by the PGA Tour. TPC courses are designed for amateur golfers who want to play the courses they see the pros playing on TV.
As with most TPC layouts, this course has a fairly straight forward set up with water coming into play on most of the holes. TPC Twin Cities has four Par 3’s with two having a stroke average under par (Holes 4, 8) and having stroke average over par (Holes 13, 17). If wind is a factor, as expected Hole 8 can be more difficult with the cross wind coming into play.
In terms of Par 4’s, this course has eleven of them with six having stroke average under par (Holes 1,5,10,14,15,16) and 5 having stroke average over par (Holes 2,3,7,9,11). The Par 4’s are the most critical on this course with the winner needing to capitalize on birdie opportunities. Hole 7 has had a new tee installed adding about 80 yards in length during the renovation. Even though it only is listed at 372, off the tee accuracy is key here. A lake lines the fairway on the left while the right is very tight with the out of bounds stakes close on the right. The green is also surrounded by bunkers making a difficult approach shot. Speaking of difficult approach shots, Hole 14 has one of the most challenging ones on the course. The green is close to the water that usually has a cross wind that pushes the ball in that direction.
TPC Twin Cities has three Par 5’s with all three playing under stroke average under par (Holes 6,12,18). Hole 6 is a Par 5 as mentioned, that plays nearly 600 yards. While most of the long hitters can reach the green in two, it is very challenging to do so as the green is surrounded by bunkers on the right and water on the left. Hole 18 is also an interesting hole with players having to decide how risky they want to be off the tee in terms of going over the lake. As if the lake wasn’t a challenge enough, the fairway is lined with bunkers on the opposite placing an emphasis on driving accuracy here. TPC Twin Cities is generally regarded as one of the easier courses on tour, with the past three winners coming in at -15, -19, and -21.
This course also features pure bentgrass greens which is quite unusual and will cause the ball to roll a bit quicker than players are used to. This makes calculating the distance on approach shots even more critical. TPC Twin Cities is at 900 feet of elevation, and with thinner air, it will also cause the ball to fly a bit further.
Featured Holes: #6, #7, #9, #14
For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
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Strokes Gained: Approach
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Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
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Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
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Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards
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Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards
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Approaches from 175-200 yards
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Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
Tony Finau (+1400) is the favorite this week at TPC Twin Cities. Last week, he finished T28 at the Open Championship shooting a 66 in the final round. He’s been playing some great golf as of late making the cut eight of his last nine starts dating back to the Masters. Finau has yet to win on Tout this season but did finish runner-up at the Mexico Open and RBC Canadian Open. In terms of event history, he’s finished T23/T3/T28 in his three appearances.
Sungjae Im (+1800) hasn’t been in the best form as of late, missing the cut in two of his last three Tour starts. The lone event where he did make the cut, was last week at The Open Championship finishing T81. Before he missed the cut at the U.S. Open and Genesis Scottish Open, he placed inside the top-21 in five consecutive tournaments. Im last played at TPC Twin Cities back in 219 where he finished T15.
Hideki Matsuyama (+1800) is one of several players making the trip to Minnesota from St. Andrews. Last week he finished T68 with a 67 in the final round. Before The Open Championship, he missed the cut at the Genesis Scottish Open and finished 4th the U.S. Open. He last played in this event in 2019 placing T7. The rumors of Matsuyama to the LIV Tour continue to increase so I wouldn’t be surprised if he withdraws from the field and makes the official announcement.
Maverick McNealy (+2200) is one of the players this week that certainly looks like he’s trending towards a win. In his last three events, he finished T8 (John Deere Classic), T16 (Genesis Scottish Open), and T9 (Barracuda Championship). McNealy made his debut in this event last year where he placed T16.
Adam Hadwin (+2500) comes into TPC Twin Cities off a missed cut at the John Deere Classic. That was his first missed cut in his last five starts on Tour. In those four events, where he did make the weekend he finished T71/T18/T35/T7. In terms of event history, there’s not another guy in the field this week who’s had two top-10 finishes. Hadwin finished T4 in 2019, did not play here in 2020, then finished T6 in 2021.
Previous winners in the field; Cameron Champ (2021), Michael Thompson (2020)
Notable Withdraws: Mark Hubbard, Erik van Rooyen, Charles Howell III, Lanto Griffin, Chad Ramey, Brandt Snedeker, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Aaron Rai
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
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2021: Cameron Champ (-15)
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Price: 150-1
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2020: Michael Thompson (-19)
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Price: 125-1
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2019: Matthew Wolff (-21)
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Price: 175-1
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Picks (Outright):
Headed to Dublin then London so I didn’t have time to do a full writeup on all of my selections this week. Should hopefully be back to normal next week.
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Brendan Steele (+3500) – DraftKings
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Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
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Nick Hardy (+4500) – DraftKings
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Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
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Austin Smotherman (+8000) – DraftKings
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Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
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Troy Merritt (+8000) – Caesars
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Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
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Doug Ghim (+8000) – BetMGM
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Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
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Lucas Glover (+10000) – BetMGM
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Risk 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
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Total Risk on Outrights: 0.79 Units
Picks (Top 20):
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Adam Hadwin (+140) – Caesars
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Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
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I mentioned Adam Hadwin before in this article and given his course history, it’s hard to pass him up at this number. He comes into TPC Twin Cities off a missed cut at the John Deere Classic. That was his first missed cut in his last five starts on Tour. In those four events, where he did make the weekend he finished T71/T18/T35/T7. In terms of event history, there’s not another guy in the field this week who’s had two top-10 finishes. Hadwin finished T4 in 2019, did not play here in 2020, then finished T6 in 2021.
While TPC Twin Cities has been known as a bombers paradise in the past, accuracy off the tee is crucial as water comes into play most holes. Hadwin isn’t long off the tee ranking 120th but, makes up for it with accuracy ranking 46th. His iron play has been good with him really exceling around the green. We know this event comes down to putting and in his two previous starts at the 3M Open, he’s gained over a stroke on the green each time.
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Cam Davis (+160) – FanDuel
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Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
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Cam Davis comes into the 3M Open in great form. He’s made the cut in each of his last six starts on Tour and has finished inside the top-10 in his last three of those events. He’s played in all three editions of the 3M Open finishing MC/T12/T28.
In terms of the bomber narrative, Cam Davis fit’s it nicely. He averages over 300 yards off the tee and ranks 71st in strokes gained. Where Cam struggles is his short game which includes his putting. As of late, his putting has been much better gaining strokes in six of his last seven events (where SG Data has been tracked). His play around the green is still a little iffy but luckily for us, it’s not a key stat this week. Given his recent form and his course history, Cam Davis should be able to place inside the top-20 this week.
Total Risk on Top-20s: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
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Michael Gligic (+125) – FanDuel
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Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
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Michael Gligic has made the cut in each of his last eight starts on Tour. During that span, he has finished inside the top-40 in seven of those eight events. He made his debut at this event back in 2020 where he finished T26 and followed that up with a T49 last year.
He’s not one of the longer hitters on Tour but isn’t short by any means. Despite the “lack of length” off the tee, he ranks T40 in Par 5 Scoring. We’ve seen him struggle on the green earlier this year but in each of his past three starts, he’s gained strokes putting. In addition to his putting, his approach play has gotten more consistent. It’s an easier course this week that we’ve seen suits him well in the past (TPC Deere Run).
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Callum Tarren (+160) – FanDuel
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Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
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Most people probably heard about him from the first round of the U.S. Open where he was T2. He would go on to finish T31 at the Country Club. Callum Tarren isn’t the epitome of consistency making the cut in three of his last six events. However, when he does make the cut he has finished T31 or better in those events. He will be making his debut at TPC Twin Cities.
In terms of distance off the tee he ranks 20th on Tour averaging over 310 yards on his drives. His putting wasn’t great earlier this year but he has gained strokes on the green five of his last eight events. Overall, his iron play has improved both around the green and on approach. We saw him do well on some of the easier courses so I expect a similar result this week.
Total Risk on Top-40s: 2.00 Units
