The American Express – Preview & Picks

Congrats to all Grayson Murray backers at the Sony Open in Hawaii last week if there were any. Based on @GolfTipsChecker‘s weekly recap, no one picked him to win. We were on Byeong Hun An (35-1) who came up short in that three-man playoff. It looked like it was An’s tournament to win until Murray drained a 39-foot birdie. Despite just barely missing our first outright of the 2024 season, we did profit on the week as J.T. Poston (+150) and Eric Cole (+150) finished inside the top 20. Our lone top 40 placement, Nico Echavarria (+225) was tracking until the weekend when he struggled in his last two rounds.

To extend the playoff, Ben An narrowly missed from 4 feet. pic.twitter.com/e4QhzA5vnA

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 15, 2024

39 FEET FOR THE WIN!

Grayson Murray is victorious @SonyOpenHawaii in dramatic fashion! pic.twitter.com/C86sTS4O7a

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 15, 2024

 

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

It’s certainly been a change of pace for these first two events with Chris Kirk (125-1) and Grayson Murray (300-1) winning. Last year, we saw a majority of the winners come in around 40-1 or below. Both of these players will also be in the field for this tournament.

We begin the California Swing with a unique event, the American Express. The Farmer’s Insurance Open, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and Genesis Invitational also held in California, will take place in the coming weeks.

Daniel Berger will make his return to the PGA Tour following back surgery. He has not played since the 2022 U.S. Open where he missed the cut. Back then he was ranked No. 25 in the Official World Golf Ranking but is currently ranked 634. His return was speculated last summer when he posted a swing video but was only confirmed a few weeks ago. He still has exempt status through 2024 from his last win at the 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am but isn’t qualified yet for the signature events or majors.

Justin Thomas will make his first start of the 2024 PGA Tour season. He struggled last season failing to make the TOUR Championship for the first time in his career. However, he played much better during the Fall Swing finishing 5th at the Fortinet Championship and 3rd at the Hero World Challenge. This will be his first appearance at this event since 2015 (Humana Challenge).

The past two winners of this event, Jon Rahm and Hudson Swafford will not be in this year’s event as they have joined the LIV Tour. Despite those two players not participating, there will be seven previous winners in the field this week.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: January 18th, 2024- January 21st, 2024
• Location: La Quinta, California, United States
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Thursday-Saturday: 3 Course Rotation
    • PGA West Stadium Course
    • PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course
    • La Quinta CC
  • Sunday: PGA West Stadium Course
• Purse/ Winner: $8,400,000/$1,512,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 and Ties – 54 Holes
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2023: -10
  • 2022: -7
  • 2021: -4 (36 Holes)

 

PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course

• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,187 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Poa overseed .110”
• Fairways: Ryegrass overseed .350”
• Non-overseeded Rough: Tifgreen 328 Bermuda 2”
• Bunkers: 90-plus
• Water Hazard(s): — (In-Play on 7 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 11 ft.
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 69.20 (-2.80), Rank 47 of 49
  • 2022: 70.57 (-1.43), Rank 37 of 50
  • 2021: 70.81 (-1.19), Rank 36 of 51

 

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

 

PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course

• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,159 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Poa overseed .110”
• Fairways: Ryegrass overseed .350”
• Rough: TifGreen 328 bermudagrass 2”
• Bunkers: 90-plus
• Water Hazard(s): — (In-Play on 5 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 10.5 ft.
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 68.73 (-3.27), Rank 48 of 49
  • 2022: 70.26 (-1.74), Rank 39 of 50
  • 2021: 70.95 (-1.05), Rank 36 of 51

 

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

 

La Quinta Country Club 

• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,060 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Poa trivialis/rye overseed .105”
• Fairways: Ryegrass overseed .400”
• Rough: Ryegrass overseed 1.75”
• Bunkers: 82
• Water Hazard(s): 5 lakes (In-Play on 7 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 4,773 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 11.5 ft.
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2023: 69.58 (-2.46), Rank 46 of 49
  • 2022: 69.92 (-2.08), Rank 43 of 50
  • 2020: 69.18 (-2.82), Rank 41 of 41

 

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

 

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, January 18th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, January 19th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, January 20th, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, January 21st, 2024
  • Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Sunny 76 F, 5 mp/h E, 45% Humidity, 3% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Mostly Cloudy 76 F, 5 mp/h E, 40% Humidity, 1% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Mostly Cloudy 76 F, 5 mp/h E, 40% Humidity, 1% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: PM Showers 69 F, 5 mp/h SSE, 64% Humidity, 36% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course was designed by Pete Dye and established in 1986. It first made an appearance on the PGA Tour in 1987 in the Bob Hope Classic (The American Express). However, after being deemed too challenging by the tour pros, it was removed as a host course until its return in 2016. This is also the only course that we have Strokes Gained data from. Here are the current Strokes Gained Leaders at Pete Dye Courses (Last 36 Rounds); Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay, Shane Lowry, and Justin Thomas.

PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course was designed by Jack Nicklaus and established in 1987. In 2016, this course became part of the three-course rotation for this event. Here are the current Strokes Gained Leaders at Jack Nicklaus Courses (Last 36 Rounds); Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, and Jason Day.

La Quinta Country Club was designed by Lawrence Hughes and established in 1959. It became a permanent fixture of this event in 2010. However, it hosted the American Express a total of 50 times, more than any other course.

All three of these courses are less than 7,200 yards. Here are the current Gained Leaders on Short Courses (less than 7,200 Yards, Last 36 Rounds); Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Eric Cole.

The American Express has undergone several name/ sponsorship changes throughout the years. This event debuted in 1960 as the Palm Springs Golf Classic. In 1965 Bob Hope Chrysler took over as sponsor and was involved in this tournament until 2011. From 2012 to 2019 this event was known by several different names including the Humana Challenge (2012-2015), the CareerBuilder Challenge (2016-2018), and Desert Classic (2019). In 2020, American Express took over as the main sponsor.

In addition to name/ sponsorship changes, this event has also gone through several formats and courses as well. Until 2012, its format remained unique among PGA Tour events, being played over five days and four different courses. In 2012, the tournament was narrowed to a four-round event played on three courses with a 54-hole cut. In 2016, the current three-course rotation of PGA West (Pete Dye Stadium Course), PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course), and La Quinta Country Club was enacted.

This is a unique tournament for several reasons but let’s start with the obvious, the 3-course rotation. The players will play a different course for the first three days rotating between the PGA West Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta CC. The PGA West facility will host three of the four rounds as the Stadium Course and Nicklaus Tournament Course are both on the grounds. La Quinta Country Club is roughly a 5-mile drive from that facility and will be the only travel required for players during this event.

Given that the first three days are at different courses, the lone cut for the event will be made after 54 Holes and not the typical 36 Holes. In 2021, this event only took place at just two courses, so the cut was made after 36 which has skewed the cut line data. The historical cut line for this event has been around -9 after 54 Holes.

Another interesting variation is the incorporation of the Pro-Am structure. Each pro will be paired up with an amateur for the first three rounds. So the groupings for the first three days will feature two pros and two amateurs. Given the format, the pin positions will be in easier locations for the first three days. The rounds can also take up to 6 hours with the amateurs in the field.

• Most Wins at Event:
  • 5, Arnold Palmer (1960, 1962, 1968, 1971, 1973)
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 260, Patrick Reed (2014)
• 18-Hole Record (Pete Dye Stadium Course):
  • 61, Patrick Cantlay (Round 4, 2021)
• 18-Hole Record (Nicklaus Tournament):
  • 61, Will Zalatoris (Round 2, 2022)
• 18-Hole Record (La Quinta Country Club):
  • 59, Adam Hadwin (Round 3, 2017)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course

The PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course is one of the shorter courses on tour that plays roughly 7,187 yards. It ranks 10th out of 44 courses in terms of length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 16th of 44, with the average fairway width being 33.5 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,000 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 90 bunkers that rank as the 6th most out of the 44 courses.

The four Par 3’s range from 165 to 223 yards. Last year, Hole No. 17 was the only Par 3 to have a scoring average over par.

No. 6 “Amen”, 223 yards, Par 3: One of the more intimidating holes on the course, however, there is a bailout area left and the green is large enough to receive just about any club you choose to hit here.

No. 17 “Alcatraz”, 165 yards, Par 3: Alcatraz is our signature hole at the Pete Dye Stadium Course. A precise tee shot here is a must into this island green which is surrounded by imposing boulders and a treacherous water hazard.

There are ten Par 4’s on the Pete Dye Stadium Course with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest hole on the course last year was No. 18 (+0.089).

No. 7 “Black Hole”, 346 yards, Par 4: This may be the shortest par-4 on the course but this hole requires a very precise drive. There is a water hazard that runs down the entire right side and the bailout area left is no bargain. If you are lucky enough to hit the fairway you will be left with a short iron into the green.

No. 18 “Coliseum”, 349 yards, Par 4: One of the more intimidating drives on the course with water down the entire left side of the hole. You will need to favor the right side and try to avoid the bunkers. Your approach shot into this green has no bail out on the left and water that comes into play and bunkers that protect the front right.

There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 5, No. 8, No. 11, and No. 16. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. No. 11 was the easiest hole on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.493 below par.

No. 5 “Double Trouble”, 535 yards, Par 5: This par-5 is a true risk-reward hole that requires a drive that avoids the water down the left side. Laying up here is no easy feat as you need to favor the left side to stay out of the water on the right.

No. 16 “San Andreas Fault”, 600 yards, Par 5: Avoid the bunker down the left off the tee. If you have a chance to go for the green you will need to keep your second shot down the right as the bunker that is greenside is approx. 20 feet deep. Getting out of this bunker could take some time. Laying up is always the suggested play as a short iron into this green should set you up nicely.

Hole	Name	Par	Yardage	Hole	Name	Par	Yardage
1	PRELUDE	4	445	10	QUARRY	4	405
2	CRATERS	4	371	11	ETERNITY	5	591
3	CRESCENT	4	471	12	MOAT	4	363
4	SAND PIT	3	170	13	SECOND THOUGHTS	3	195
5	DOUBLE TROUBLE	5	535	14	CAVERN	4	389
6	AMEN	3	223	15	TURNING HOME	4	468
7	BLACK HOLE	4	346	16	SAN ANDREAS FAULT	5	600
8	LINKS	5	559	17	ALCATRAZ	3	165
9	REFLECTION	4	452	18	COLISEUM	4	439
OUT		36	3572	IN		36	3615
				TOTAL		72	7187

 

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 17

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course

The PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course is one of the shorter courses on tour that plays roughly 7,159 yards. It ranks 9th out of 44 courses in terms of length. The average green size is roughly 7,000 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 78 bunkers that rank as the 18th most out of the 44 courses.

The four Par 3’s range from 165 to 209 yards.

No. 8 “Lilly Pad”, 172 yards, Par 3: A beautiful semi-island green that has no room for shots that come up a little short. Aiming at the middle of this green is always the best option, no matter where the pin location is for the day.

No. 12 “Fatal Attraction”, 165 yards, Par 3: The center of the green is always the best spot to aim on this hole. Miss this green to the right or short left in the bunker and you will be left with a nearly impossible up and down.

There are ten Par 4’s on the Nicklaus Tournament Course with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. One thing to note is that hole No. 1 was listed at 378 Yards and this year has changed to 412 Yards.

No. 9 “Jack’s Revenge”, 461 yards, Par 4: Try to favor the left side of this fairway as a shot down the right could leave you with a blind second shot. The green is well guarded by a large water hazard, so choosing the correct club here is a must. You can bail out a little right if needed.

No. 18 “Bear Trap”, 431 yards, Par 4: It is hard to find a more beautiful finishing hole than this one. Your tee shot plays back to the clubhouse and will need to avoid the fairway bunker and water hazard down the right side. You will have a second shot that will require a mid to long iron and will need to have enough carry to get over the bunker that guards the front of the green. The green slopes severely from back to front and from left to right.

There are four Par 5’s on the course, No. 4, No. 7, No. 11, and No. 15.

No. 11 “Moguls”, 528 yards, Par 5: Aim to the right of the moguls on the left side of the fairway to set up the best view of this green for your second shot. The layup shot is crucial here as you need to decide whether to lay up short of the fairway bunker or take on the carry to set up a short pitch into the green. Make sure to avoid the left side of the green at all costs as it falls off severely and leaves an almost impossible up and down.

No. 15 “Long Island”, 572 yards, Par 5: One of the more scenic driving holes that requires a straight drive that avoids the deep fairway bunker off the tee. Keeping your lay-up shot down the right is a must and will leave you an approach shot that will need to carry the water hazard onto an island green.

Hole	Name	Par	Yardage	Hole	Name	Par	Yardage
1	JACK’S OR BETTER	4	412	10	PLATEAU	4	370
2	TOP GUN	4	444	11	MOGULS	5	528
3	PYRAMID	3	192	12	FATAL ATTRACTION	3	165
4	RIDGE RUNNER	5	549	13	IMAGES	4	419
5	WISHBONE	4	364	14	DATE BOWL	4	442
6	JAGGED EDGE	4	462	15	LONG ISLAND	5	572
7	DESERT VALLEY	5	527	16	CATTAIL	4	440
8	LILLY PAD	3	172	17	MOUNTAIN VIEW	3	209
9	JACK’S REVENGE	4	461	18	BEAR TRAP	4	431
OUT		36	3583	IN		36	3576
				TOTAL		72	7159

 

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 8

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

 La Quinta Country Club

La Quinta Country Club is one of the shorter courses on tour that plays roughly 7,060 yards. It ranks 6th out of 44 courses in terms of length. The average green size is roughly 4,773 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 82 bunkers that rank as the 19th most out of the 44 courses.

The four Par 3’s range from 168 to 206 yards. Last year, No. 3 and No. 15 were the only Par 3’s to have a scoring average over par.

No. 3, 202 yards, Par 3: This picturesque par three features water and bunkers on the left. The proper club selection is required for a good position on this two-tiered green. If the green is missed on the right side there is a great opportunity to get up and down for par.

No. 7, 168 yards, Par 3: This beautiful par three has a large bunker on the left side of the green as well as a waterfall on the right, which empties into a small lake at the front of the green. Don’t let its beauty or its short yardage distract you. You must hit a great shot to score on this hole.

There are ten Par 4’s at La Quinta Country Club with the majority of those holes ranging between 400 and 450 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest hole on the course last year was No. 18 (+0.089).

No. 10, 405 yards, Par 4: The back nine starts off with a short dogleg left. It’s best not to cheat the corner due to the large eucalyptus and mesquite trees on the left. By using the aiming bunker on the far, right side of the dogleg, the player will set up a perfect approach to the green. The fairway slopes from right to left from the turning point all the way to the green. This will help the ball feed into the proper positions on the fairway as well as on the green.

No. 18, 412 yards, Par 4: Eighteen’s beauty begins at the tee box with a full view of the fairway, lake, clubhouse, and a backdrop of the Santa Rosa Mountains. Avoiding the water left off the tee and again for the approach shot near the green are the challenges on this great finishing hole. The right side is framed with a lone fairway bunker and a series of greenside bunkers.

There are four Par 5’s on the course, No. 5, No. 6, No. 11, and No. 13. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2023. No. 11 was the easiest hole on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.493 below par.

No. 5, 516 yards, Par 5: The first par five rewards a long drive aimed at the bunkers on the left side of the fairway. There is an opportunity to reach this green in two. However, there is only a small opening in front of the green where the ball can enter. For the player who wishes to lay up, the shot should favor the left side deep down the fairway. This will leave the player with a short pitch and a chance to make a birdie.

No. 11, 543 yards, Par 5: Eleven is a par five that plays like the letter “s”. A good tee shot should finish just to the right of the left fairway bunker. This will set up an opportunity to carry the fairway bunker, which guards the green, and possibly run the ball up on the green. If the player elects to lay up, the best landing area is left of the fairway bunker. From this point, the approach shot must finish on the correct level of the three-tiered green to capture a birdie.

Hole	Par	Yardage	Hole	Par	Yardage
1	4	382	10	4	405
2	4	434	11	5	543
3	3	202	12	3	202
4	4	384	13	5	547
5	5	516	14	4	469
6	5	527	15	3	206
7	3	168	16	4	454
8	4	389	17	4	421
9	4	399	18	4	412
OUT	36	3401	IN	36	3659
			TOTAL	72	7060

 

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 18

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

The three possible course rotations will be as follows:

• R1: PGA West Stadium -> R2: La Quinta -> R3: Nicklaus Tournament
• R1: La Quinta -> R2: Nicklaus Tournament -> R3: PGA West Stadium
• R1: Nicklaus Tournament -> R2: PGA West Stadium -> R3: La Quinta

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
  • As with most tournaments on TOUR, strokes gained on approach is a major factor. La Quinta Country Club and the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West have some of the smallest average greens on Tour.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Sam Ryder
    • Adam Schenk
    • Mark Hubbard

• Birdies or Better Gained
  • Each of the five previous winning scores at this event has been -23 or lower. Players will need to take advantage of every scoring opportunity if they want to have a chance at winning.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Eric Cole
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • J.T. Poston
    • Xander Schauffele
    • Sam Ryder

• Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa)
  • The green complexes at PGA West (Dye & Nicklaus Course) are Poa overseed .110”. At La Quinta Country Club the green complexes are Poa trivialis/rye overseed .105”.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Denny McCarthy
    • Maverick McNealy
    • Kevin Kisner
    • Peter Malnati
    • Justin Suh

• Par 3 Scoring: 150-175 Yards (x2)
  • Two of the four Par 3’s on the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West range between 150-175 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Mark Hubbard
    • Eric Cole
    • Alexander Bjork
    • Dylan Wu
    • Adam Schenk

• Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x3/ x4/ x4)
  • Three of the ten Par 4’s on the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West range between 400-450 Yards.
  • Four of the ten Par 4’s on the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West range between 400-450 Yards.
  • Four of the ten Par 4’s at La Quinta Country Club range between 400-450 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Ryan Moore
    • Beau Hossler
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Sam Ryder
    • Min Woo Lee

• Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards (x3)
  • Two of the four Par 5’s on the Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West range between 500-550 Yards.
  • Leaders in this category in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Davis Thompson
    • Jhonattan Vegas
    • Joohyung ‘Tom’ Kim
    • Matthias Schmid
    • Chun-an Yu

• Proximity: 250+ Yards
  • Below is the approach shot distribution chart from last year’s event (via DataGolf). Most approach shots come from the 250+ yard range at a volume much higher than the PGA Tour average.

• • Leaders in Proximity from 200+ yards in the last 36 Rounds:
    • Charley Hoffman
    • Scottie Scheffler
    • Justin Suh
    • Joohyung ‘Tom’ Kim
    • Ben Griffin

• Comparable Courses and Event History
  • The American Express has used its current three-course rotation since 2016 so we have some of course history to go off. The only outlier was in 2021 when this event only took place at just two courses due to COVID-19.
  • Leaders in this category in the last (Multiple Events Played):
    • Patrick Cantlay (5 Events – 67.58 Scoring Average)
    • Will Zalatrois (2 Events – 67.63 Scoring Average)
    • Adam Hadwin (8 Events – 67.69 Scoring Average)
    • Scottie Scheffler (4 Events – 67.71 Scoring Average)
    • Sungjae Im (5 Events – 67.80 Scoring Average)

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 156 players competing in this year’s tournament. Ten of the top twenty-five players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Scottie Scheffler (+550) finished T5 at The Sentry in his first event of the 2024 season. He’s now finished T6 or better in each of his last four events. This will be his fifth appearance at The American Express. His best finish came back in his debut (2020) at this event (3rd) and has since followed that up with a MC-T25-T11.

Patrick Cantlay (+900) finished T12 at The Sentry in his first event of the 2024 season. He’s now finished T15 or better in each of his last four events. This will be his sixth appearance at The American Express. Cantlay has some impressive course history here finishing inside the top-10 in three of his past five trips.

Xander Schauffele (+900) finished T10 at The Sentry in his first event of the 2024 season. He’s now finished T10 or better in three of his last four events. This will be his fourth appearance at The American Express. His best finish was last year (T3) after he had missed the cut in his previous two starts.

Justin Thomas (+1800) will make his first start of the 2024 PGA Tour season. He struggled last season failing to make the TOUR Championship for the first time in his career. However, he played much better during the Fall Swing finishing 5th at the Fortinet Championship and 3rd at the Hero World Challenge. This will be his first appearance at this event since 2015 (Humana Challenge).

Sungjae Im (+2200) finished T5 at The Sentry in his first event of the 2024 season. He’s now finished 24th or better in each of his last six PGA Tour events. This will be his sixth appearance at The American Express. Im has some of the best event history here finishing T18-T11-T12-T10-T12 in his previous five starts.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Si Woo Kim (’21), Andrew Landry (’20), Adam Long (’19), Jason Dufner (’16), Bill Hass (’15, ’10), Jhonattan Vegas (’11), Charley Hoffman (’07)
• Debutants in the Field:
  • Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Alejandro Tosti, Alexander Bjork, Blaine Hale, Jr., Chandler Phillips, Christopher Gotterup, Hayden Springer, Jacob Bridgeman, Jake Knapp, Jimmy Stanger, Joe Highsmith, Kevin Dougherty, Lin Yuxin, Mac Meissner, Matt Wallace, Matthieu Pavon, Max Greyserman, Minwoo Lee, Nick Dunlap, Norman Xiong, Parker Coody, Patrick Fishburn, Pierceson Coody, Raul Pereda, Rico Hoey, Robert MacIntyre, Ryan McCormick, Ryo Hisatsune, Sami Valimaki, Shane Lowry, Trace Crowe, Wilson Furr

• Notable Withdraws:
  • Denny McCarthy (Unknown), Seamus Powers (Unknown)

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Projected Final Score

• 72 Hole Winning Score – 261.5 (-26.5)

Since its current format, only one player, Jon Rahm in 2023 (-27), has finished with a score below this mark. Looking back at the field last year when this happened it featured a slightly stronger field. The weather also looked slightly worse last year in terms of the wind. Based on all of the factors, I would lean over on the winning score being above 261.5 (-130).

To place a bet on the Projected Final Score of the Winner, you can click the following link.

 

Facts & Figures:

• 13 of the last 14 winners of The American Express played in at least one of the two Hawaiian (Sentry & Sony Open) events.
• 10 of the last 11 winners of The American Express had played in this event at least once before.

 

Horses for Courses:

			The American Express	The American Express	The American Express	The American Express	Desert Classic
			PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club	PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club	PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club	PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club	PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
	Events Played	Scoring Average (per round)	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Patrick Cantlay	5	67.58	T26	9	2	–	T9
Sungjae Im	5	67.80	T18	T11	T12	T10	T12
Sam Burns	4	67.86	T11	–	MC	T6	T18
Adam Hadwin	8	67.69	T18	T25	T32	–	T2
Alex Smalley	2	68.13	T22	T25	–	–	–
Tony Finau	6	68.30	T16	T40	4	T14	–
Si Woo Kim	6	68.43	T22	T11	1	WD	T40
Daniel Berger	3	68.64	–	–	–	T29	T12
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	2	68.00	T11	T40	–	–	–
Andrew Putnam	7	68.70	T36	T14	T21	T10	T34

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

			The American Express	The American Express	The American Express	The American Express	Desert Classic
			PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club	PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club	PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club	PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club	PGA West Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta Country Club
	Events Played	Scoring Average (per round)	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Rafael Campos	2	74.20	–	–	MC	MC	–
Michael Block	4	71.82	MC	–	MC	–	MC
Andrew Novak	2	71.67	MC	MC	–	–	–
Joel Dahmen	3	71.63	–	–	MC	–	–
John Pak	2	70.83	MC	MC	–	–	–
Chesson Hadley	9	70.82	MC	MC	MC	T29	MC
Michael Kim	5	70.76	MC	–	MC	–	–
Akshay Bhatia	2	70.60	–	–	MC	MC	–
Troy Merritt	10	70.33	MC	MC	MC	T68	–
Matthew NeSmith	4	70.33	MC	MC	MC	T17	–
Peter Malnati	9	70.29	MC	MC	MC	MC	T18
Ben Taylor	3	70.25	MC	–	MC	MC	–
Taylor Pendrith	2	69.67	MC	MC	–	–	–
Callum Tarren	2	69.67	MC	MC	–	–	–
Brandon Wu	2	69.67	MC	MC	–	–	–

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
  • Price: 13-2 (+650)
• 2022: Hudson Swafford (-23)
  • Price: 175-1
• 2021: Si Woo Kim (-23)
  • Price: 66-1
• 2020: Andrew Landry (-26)
  • Price: 200-1
• 2019: Adam Long (-26)
  • Price: 600-1

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2023: Jon Rahm
  • WON – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
  • T8 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
  • T4 – THE CJ CUP in South Carolina (PGA)
  • WON – DP World Tour Championship (DPWT)
  • WON – acciona Open de Espana (DPWT)

• 2022: Hudson Swafford
  • T48 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
  • MC – The RSM Classic (PGA)
  • T35 – Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)
  • T33 – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
  • T32 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)

• 2021: Si Woo Kim
  • T25 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
  • T34 – The Masters (MAJ)
  • MC – Vivint Houston Open (MC)
  • T17 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • T8 – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)

• 2020: Andrew Landry
  • MC – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
  • MC – The RSM Classic (PGA)
  • MC – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
  • MC – Houston Open (PGA)
  • MC – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)

• 2019: Adam Long
  • MC – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
  • MC – The RSM Classic (PGA)
  • MC – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
  • T63 – Safeway Open (PGA)
  • MC – Web.com Tour Championship (KFT)

 

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

• 2023: Jon Rahm
  • 2022 – T14
  • 2019 – 6
  • 2018 – WON
  • 2017 – T34

• 2022: Hudson Swafford
  • 2021 – MC
  • 2020 – MC
  • 2019 – T65
  • 2018 – T29
  • 2017 – WON
  • 2016 – T56
  • 2015 – MC
  • 2014 – T25

• 2021: Si Woo Kim
  • 2020 – WD
  • 2019 – T40
  • 2016 – T9

• 2020: Andrew Landry
  • 2019 – T28
  • 2018 – 2
  • 2016 – MC

• 2019: Adam Long
  • Debut at event

 

Picks (Outrights):

• J.T. Poston (+3300) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

• Eric Cole (+3300) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

• Taylor Montgomery (+5000) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

• Adam Schenk (+9000) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.09 to win 8.10 Units

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+13000) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 0.07 to win 9.10 Units

• Matthias Schmid (+15000) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.06 to win 9.00 Units

• Sam Ryder (+15000) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 0.06 to win 9.00 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 0.94 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Sungjae Im (+100) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

• Jason Day (+160) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Alex Smalley (+120) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.20 Units

• Patton Kizzire (+138) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.38 Units

Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units

 

As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.

Here’s my link to sign up at BetMGM!

 

Total Risk on The American Express: 4.94 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.