What a run we’re on right now, Sepp Straka (125-1) captures The Honda Classic to give us our third outright winner in four tournaments. In addition to cashing on Straka we also hit on Billy Horschel (+150) Top 20 and Sam Ryder (+175) Top 40. In the last four weeks were up a combined 25.16 Units. This may not seem like a lot when hitting three outrights but, my unit scale is slightly different than others. This is only my second year of covering golf fulltime so I’m continually learning as I go but, any feedback is always appreciated, positive or negative. I also wanted to say thank you to everyone who has recently followed me on all social media platforms. Hopefully you enjoy the articles and I can provide you with some winners.
The PGA Tour stays in Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. Last year we saw Bryson Dechambeau win this event highlighted by his incredible drive on the Par 5, 6th. Unfortunately we won’t be able to watch Bryson try and defend his title, as he withdrew earlier this week. We have a much stronger field than last week as it’s an invitational and a larger purse at stake. Let’s get into the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill and see if we can stay hot.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: March 3rd, 2022- March 6th, 2022
- Location: Orlando, Florida, United States
- Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge
- Course Type: Florida/ Southeast
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,466 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 120 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
- Greens: TifEagle Bermudagrass
- Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass
- Rough: Celebration Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Rye 3.00″
- Stimpmeter: 12.5 (Above Average)
- Purse: $12,000,000 / Winner $2.160 Million
- FedEx Cup Points: 550
- Bunkers: 84
- Water Hazards: – (In-Play on 9 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 7,500 sq. ft.
- Scoring Average:
- 2021: 73.02 (+1.02), Rank 9 of 51
- 2020: 74.11 (+2.11), Rank 1 of 41
- 2019: 72.38 (+0.38), Rank 9 of 49
- 2018: 72.02 (+0.02), Rank 15 of 51
- 2017: 72.89 (+0.89), Rank 9 of 50
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Course Architect: David Wilson (1961)
- Renovations: Arnold Palmer (2009)
- Comparable Courses:
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, March 3rd, 2022
- Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, March 4th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, March 5th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM ET
- NBC – 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, March 6th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM ET
- NBC – 2:30 PM – 6:30 PM ET
- Thursday: Partly Cloudy 73 F, 8 mp/h ENE, 54% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Sunny 73 F, 12 mp/h ENE, 51% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Mostly Sunny 74 F, 15 mp/h ESE, 51% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Sunny 77 F, 13 mp/h ESE, 51% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The Arnold Palmer Invitational was founded in 1979 as a successor to the Florida Citrus Invitational. The event went through several different names, but has played under the current name since 2007. In 2004, MasterCard became the main sponsor of the tournament and has retained the rights ever since.
Bay Hill Club & Lodge has hosted this event since its debut. Arnold Palmer, bought the club back in 1970 and then renovated the course in 2009. The renovation included an overhaul of all 18 greens, the reworking most bunkers, additional yardage being added which changed the Par from 71 to 72. It’s known as one of the toughest courses on the Tour and continually attracts a very strong field.
The purse was increased to $12 million dollars this year, which is $2.7 million more than was offered in 2019. With the additional purse money, the winners share is also increased to $2,160,000 from last years $1,674,000.
Tiger Woods holds the record for most wins at this event with 7; 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013.
To read more about the history of Bay Hill, you can click the following link.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Just like last week at PGA National, Bay Hill is an extremely difficult course. Over the past five years, the scoring average has been above par every year. In 2021, only six holes played under par (#4, #6, #10, #12, 13, #17), which includes all four of the Par 5’s.
It plays 7,466 yards which makes it one of the longest courses on the Tour. In addition to the length, the fairways rank 19 out of 54 in terms of width. Driving Accuracy is a crucial stat this week as the rough, that’s 3″ thick, can be extremely difficult to play out of.
The greens are some of the largest that players will be on see Tour as they rank 7th out of 54. While the greens are some of the biggest, they roll very fast making approach shots very difficult as players will most likely be hitting long irons into them given the distance. As if the distance and fast bermudagrass greens isn’t enough, Bay Hill has the 15th most bunkers on Tour and the 11th most water danger holes.
The weather will also be a crucial factor this week with the Florida winds. The early forecast doesn’t look too bad but we’ve seen the effect they can have, especially in the 2020 API.
To see the hole by hole strokes average last year, you can click the following link.
For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Par 4 Scoring: 450-500
- Driving Distance & Accuracy
- Greens in Regulation %
- Bogey Avoidance
- Birdie to Bogey Ratio
The Field/ Odds:
The World Number 1 Jon Rahm makes his first appearance in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’s currently listed at +850 on most books. Rahm has yet to win a tournament this year with his best finish coming back in the Sentry Tournament of Champions (2nd). He’s been in great form as of late finishing 2-T14-T3-T10-T21 in his last five appearances. We’ll see if he can finally break through here at Bay Hill and capture a win in 2022.
After Rahm, in terms of betting odds, is the 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational winner, Rory McIlroy. On most books, he’s currently listed at +1200, which makes sense given his course history. Besides winning in 2018, he had four other Top 10 finishes at this course (’17,’19,’20,’21). In addition to the great course history, McIlroy is playing some great golf right now capturing two Top 10 finishes in his last two tournaments. He’s currently +185 on FanDuel for a Top 10 finish, which is definitely worth a look.
Next in line, is Viktor Hovland, who’s coming off a T4 finish in The Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. Hovland is currently listed at +1700/1800 on most books. While he’s been playing some great golf as of late, he’s struggled here at Bay Hill. He finished 49th last year, 42nd in 2020, and in 2019 when he made his tournament debut, he finished 40.
Some other popular plays this week will most likely be:
- Will Zalatoris (+2500)
- Finished 10th last year in the API and is playing some great golf right now is
- Sungjae Im (+2900)
- Finished 3rd at the API in 2019 and 2020, missed the cut at The Honda Classic but has been playing some good golf besides that
- Tyrrell Hatton (+2800)
- He won the API back in 2017 and has three Top 10’s in his last four events
Other previous winners in the field include Marc Leishman (’17), Jason Day (’16), and Martin Laird (’11).
Click the link, to see the most up to date odds.
Click the link, to find out how everyone in the field has qualified.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2021: Bryson Dechambeau (-11)
- Price: 12-1
- 2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-5)
- Price: 55-1
- 2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
- Price: 33-1
- 2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
- Price: 20-1
- 2017: Marc Leishman (-11)
- Price: 100-1
Historic Cut Lines:
- 2021: +2
- 2020: +3
- 2019: +1
- 2018: +1
- 2017: +2
Picks (Outright):
- Sungjae Im (+2900) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.28 to win 8.12 Units
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (+3000) – Caesars
- Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
- Marc Leishman (+3500) – Pointsbet
- Risk 0.23 to win 8.05
- Keith Mitchell (+4500) – DraftKings/ Pointsbet
- Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
- Jason Kokrak (+5000) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.12 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Max Homa (+240) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.20 Units
Max Homa has finished inside the Top 20 in three of his last four starts. Last year he finished 10th in the API and 24th the year before, in his tournament debut. He’s got the distance off the tee which we saw last year can be very beneficial. At Bay Hill, when compared to the field since 2016, he ranks 2nd in SG: Putting, 18th in SG: APP, 17th in SG: BST, and 13th in SG:TOT. Homa does struggle around the green a bit, but did gain strokes in that category at the Genesis. Besides that minor flaw, which isn’t a key category this week, I think he’s in great form and clearly feels comfortable at Bay Hill.
- Chris Kirk (+240) – DraftKings (+300 at BetRivers)
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.20 Units
Kirk’s gathered two Top 20’s in his last two tournaments, finishing T7 at The Honda Classic last week and T14 at the WM Phoenix Open. He’s also finished inside the Top 20 four of his last five starts at Bay Hill. So when you combine his recent performances, with his results at Bay Hill, I really like him to Top 20 this week. Kirk is great off the tee, ranking 41st in strokes gained and 18th in SG: T2G. His putting is always a little wary as we know but he has gained strokes putting in his last two events (The Honda Classic +0.81, WM Phoenix Open +0.63).
- Christian Bezuidenhout (+240) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.20 Units
Bez is coming off a T25 in The Honda Classic last week. He gained strokes in every category besides approach (-0.87) which is a little unlike him given his numbers in his previous tournaments. While Bezuidenhout isn’t a long hitter by any means, ranking 198th on Tour in Driving Distance, he is very accurate ranking 45th. Last year at the API he finished 7th and in 2020 he finished 18th. At Bay Hill, when compared to the field since 2016, he ranks 1st in SG: Putting, 6th in SG: Around the Green, and 5th in SG: Total. He’s great on the bermudagrass so I like his chances this week, given his recent finishes at Bay Hill to grab his third consecutive Top 20 here.
Total Risk on Top 20: 1.50 Units
Picks (Top 40):
- Andrew Putnam (+190) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.90 Units
Andrew Putnam finished 4th last year here at Bay Hill. He’s coming off a T48 finish in The Genesis Invitational where he struggled a bit, losing strokes off the tee and in putting. Prior to The Genesis, Putnam missed the cut at the WM Phoenix Open but finished T6 at Pebble. While he’s not great distance wise off the tee, he is fairly accurate, which is a key factor this week. He is a great approach player ranking 29th in SG: APP and a solid putter ranking 54 in SG: Putting. When looking at his SG here at Bay Hill when compared to the field, he does rank in ATG and Putting which I think can sneak him into the Top 40 this week.
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on The Arnold Palmer Invitational : 3.62 Units
SG Data at the API since 2016: Source
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
