The Fortinet Championship – Preview & Picks

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The PGA couldn’t have asked for a better finish with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy dueling it out on Sunday for the TOUR Championship. Rory ultimately prevailed and became the first player in Tour history to lift the FedExCup for the third time.

We now head to wine country for the Fortinet Championship at the Silverado Resort and Spa. This event will kick off the start of the new season but will be the last time it does so. The Tour will return to a “calendar year” schedule starting next season. This is the first full-field event we’ve seen since the Wyndham Championship which includes defending champion, Max Homa.

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: September 15th, 2022 – September 18th, 2022
  • Location: Napa, California, USA
  • Course: Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course)
  • Course Type: Resort
  • Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,123 Yards
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Greens: Poa annua / bentgrass
  • Fairways: Bermudagrass / Poa annua / ryegrass
  • Rough: Bluegrass/ryegrass
  • Bunkers: N/A
  • Water Hazards: 2 (In-Play 2 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 6,200 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 11.5 ft.
  • Purse: $8,800,000/ $1,440,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 500
  • Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
  • Course Scoring Average:
    • 2021: 71.03 (-0.97), Rank 32 of 50
    • 2020: 70.21 (-1.79), Rank 44 of 51
    • 2019: 71.24 (-0.76), Rank 19 of 41
  • Historic Cut Line:
    • 2021: -3
    • 2020: -5
    • 2019: -2

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

  • Course Architect: Ben Harmon (1955)
  • Renovations: Robert Trent Jones (1966), Johnny Miller (2011)
  • Comparable Courses:
    • Detroit Golf Club – Rocket Mortgage Classic – (RESULTS)
    • TPC Twin Cities – 3M Open – (RESULTS)
    • TPC River Highlands – Travelers Championship – (RESULTS)

 

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Thursday, September 15th, 2022
    • Golf Channel – 6 PM – 9 PM
  • Round 2: Friday, September 16th, 2022
    • Golf Channel – 6 PM – 9 PM
  • Round 3: Saturday, September 17th, 2022
    • Golf Channel – 6 PM – 9 PM
  • Round 4, Sunday, September 18th, 2022
    • Golf Channel – 6 PM – 9 PM

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: Partly Cloudy 65 F, 12 mp/h SW, 64% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Partly Cloudy 66 F, 11 mp/h SW, 65% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: Partly Cloudy 65 F, 13 mp/h SW, 62% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: Partly Cloudy 62 F, 10 mp/h SW, 62% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Fortinet Championship, previously known as the Safeway Open, is the opening event of the PGA Tour season. Fortinet took over the naming rights in 2021, signing a six-year deal.

This tournament wasn’t always the first event on the PGA Tour schedule. The change happened in 2013 when the PGA changed its “year” to October rather than January. However, this is the last year that the PGA Tour will use the wraparound season as they will return to the calendar schedule in 2024.

The Silverado Resort and Spa has hosted this event since 2014. The original 18-hole course at Silverado opened in 1955 but just 11 years later was re-designed by Robert Trent Jones Jr. In addition to the re-design of the North Course, he added a South Course. In 2010, Johnny Miller purchased the resort and made several improvements. He also added 250 yards to the North Course making it up to current PGA standards.

72-Hole Record (Silverado): 267, Stewart Cink (2020)

18-Hole Record (Silverado): 61, Chesson Hadley (2nd round, 2017).

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

The North Course at Silverado Resort was originally designed by Ben Harmon and underwent renovations by both RTJ and Johnny Miller. It’s a Par 72 that’s listed at just over 7,100 yards. It features four Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and four Par 5’s.

Silverado’s North Couse is a classic tree-lined, parkland layout with significant elevation changes on several holes. The fairways are some of the narrowest on Tour but if players do find the rough, it’s not an issue as it’s not very penal. The average green size is around the Tour average so players will have some room to miss.

The four Par 3’s range between 182 yards and 212 yards. In terms of stats, all four Par 3’s had a scoring average over par last year.

No. 11 is a short par 3 playing 182 yards that ranges in difficulty depending on the pin location. The green itself is guarded by water on the front right along with two bunkers. Any tee shot that fails to find the green will make it very difficult for the player to save Par.

The majority of the ten Par 4’s range between 400-450 yards. No. 8 is the shortest listed at 360 with the longest being No. 13, playing 458 yards. Only two of the ten Par 4’s had scoring averages over Par last year, No. 12 and No. 13.

No. 12 is a dogleg right that gives the players an option off the tee. Most will opt to take an iron prioritizing accuracy over distance. However, some will take an aggressive approach opting to cut the corner. Those who can succeed will be rewarded with an approach shot under 100 yards.

The four Par 5’s are No. 5, 9, 16, and 18. In terms of distance No. 18 is the longest listed at 575 yards. As expected, all of the Par 5’s had scoring averages below par last year.

No. 18 is a long par 5 that players can reach in two deepening on the location of their tee shot. If players can avoid the fairway bunkers they’ll have a relatively easy approach shot in. The greens are fairly flat and only guarded by two ghost bunkers in the front.

Featured Holes: 8, 11, 17, 18

 

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For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
  • Strokes Gained: Around the Green
  • Driving Distance
  • Scrambling
  • Proximity: 100-125 Yards
  • Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards
  • Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards
  • Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards

 

The Field/ Odds:

We’ll have a full field of 156 players this week for the Fortinet Championship. Most of the top players are not competing this week but we still have five of the OWGR top 50 amongst the field. We also have a few Korn Ferry Tour grads making their debuts as full-fledged PGA TOUR members including Justin Suh, Erik Barnes, and Kyle Westmoreland.

Max Homa (+1600), last year’s winner, is the odds-on favorite to win the season opener. The last time we saw him was at the TOUR Championship where he finished T5. He’s competed in this event six times before with the following results T9/T39/MC/T60/T62.

Hideki Matsuyama (+1600), finished T6 last year adding to his impressive resume at this event. In his last start on Tour, Hideki finished T11 at the TOUR Championship.

Corey Conners (+1800), will make his return to Silverado Resort and Spa after missing the last two editions of this event. He has played in this event three times prior finishing T30/MC/T13. At East Lake, Conners struggled posting on two sub-70 rounds to finish solo 26th.

Maverick McNealy (+2800), was the runner-up at the Fortinet Championship last year. That was the only finish inside the top-50 in his four starts at Silverado. He played well at the end of the year finishing T31 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and T32 at the BMW Championship. Unfortunately, he was just outside the top 30 and failed to qualify for East Lake.

Previous Winners in the field; Max Homa, Stewart Cink, Cameron Champ, Kevin Tway, Brendan Steele, and Emiliano Grillo.

Notable Withdraws: Dean Burmester

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Previous Winners/ Scores:

  • 2021: Max Homa (-19)
    Price: 60-1
  • 2020: Stuart Cink (-21)
    Price: 200-1
  • 2019: Cameron Champ (-17)
    Price: 150-1
  • 2018: Kevin Tway (-14)
    Price: 66-1
  • 2017: Brendan Steele (-15)
    Price: 33-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

  • Sahith Theegala (+2800) – BetMGM/ DraftKings
    • Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
  • Taylor Pendrith (+3000) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units
  • Cameron Davis (+3300) – Bet365
    • Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
  • Troy Merritt (+6000) – FanDuel
    • Risk 0.14 to win 8.40 Units
  • Andrew Putnam (+6600) – Bet365
    • Risk 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
  • Callum Tarren (+11000) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.08 to win 8.80 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.16 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

  • Max Homa (+120) – Bet365
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
  • Hideki Matsuyama (+130) – Bet365
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

  • Tom Hoge (+100) – DraftKings
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
  • Chez Reavie (+137) – Bet365
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.37 Units

Total Risk on Top 40 Placements: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the Fortinet Championship: 5.16 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.