We’re going back to back, Scottie Scheffler defeat’s Patrick Cantlay in extra holes to capture his first ever PGA Tour event win! What a performance from him on Sunday, starting off hot then fading a bit only to make a late push and get himself in the playoffs. In addition to cashing on the outright winner, we also hit Matt Fitzpatrick Top 20 (+170) to go up +6.89 Units last week. In the last two weeks we’re up a combined 16.64 Units, which may not seem like a lot when hitting two outrights but my unit scale is slightly different than others. This is only my second year of covering golf so I’m continually learning as I go but any feedback is always appreciated, positive or negative.
I mean does The Peoples Open ever disappoint!? The amount of viral content that came out of the Waste Management Open last week was just amazing. From Sam Ryders Hole in 1 on the 16th, to Harry Higgs and Joel Dahmen taking off their shirts, it was just an incredibly hilarious week. While that may not be the “brand” of golf everyone wants to see every week, and understandably so, for once a year, the Waste Management Phoenix Open is must watch TV.
We head back to California for The Genesis Invitational this week where we have a star studded field. This will be a much different feel for golf fans this week. Last week was a frat party and this week will be much more of a black tie affair. Regardless of which you prefer, it’s always an incredible tournament that’s extremely challenging so we should be in for a treat. Let’s get into it, and dare I say? Try to find our third winner in a row.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: February 17th, 2022- February 20th, 2022
- Location: Pacific Palisades, California, United States
- Course: Riviera Country Club
- Course Type: Parkland
- Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
- Length: 7,322 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 120 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
- Greens: Poa Annua
- Fairways: Kikuyu
- Rough: Kikuyu 2″
- Stimpmeter: 12.5 feet (Fast)
- Purse: $12,000,000 / Winner $2.160 Million
- FedEx Cup Points: 550
- Bunkers: 58
- Water Hazards: – (In-Play on 0 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 7,500 sq. ft.
- Scoring Average:
- 2021: 71.21 (+0.21)
- 2020: 71.26 (+0.26)
- 2019: 71.20 (+0.20)
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Course Architect: George Thomas/ William Bell (1926)
- Renovations: Crenshaw/Coore (1992), Tom Fazio (2012)
- Comparable Courses:
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, February 17th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, February 18th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, February 19th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- CBS – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, February 20th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:30 PM ET
Weather:
- Thursday: Partly Cloudy 65 F, 13 mp/h S, 81% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Showers 56 F, 16 mp/h WSW, 81% Humidity, 60% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Mostly Sunny 53 F, 11 mp/h N, 51% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Sunny 58 F, 14 mp/h ENE, 60% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The Genesis Invitational will end the West Coast Swing as we head to Florida next week for The Honda Classic.
The tournament made it’s debut in 1926 as the Los Angeles Open. It stayed as the LA Open until 1987, when Nissan took over the sponsorship for the event. In 1995, Nissan removed the “Los Angeles” name and changed it to the Nissan Open. However, from 2008 to 2016 it was played as the Northern Trust Open, until Genesis took over as the main sponsor in 2017. In 2017, it was changed to the Genesis Open but, in 2020 it became the Genesis Invitational. This change from Open to Invitation made it a more exclusive field with a bigger purse and a longer exemption for winning.
Riviera Country Club first hosted this event back in 1929 and has since held it a total of 58 times (non-consecutively). Since 1999, the tournament has been exclusively played here. The course will also host the Olympics in 2028 as Los Angeles is the host city.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Riviera Country Club is definitely one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. It’s a Par 71 that plays roughly 7,322 yards. In terms of course length it’s about average ranking 24 out of 54. Despite it’s location on the west coast, the elevation changes aren’t all that significant. However, what makes it so difficult is the narrow fairways and firm greens. While the fairways are significantly tougher to hit than the Tour average, the rough isn’t all that penalizing. Riviera and Torrey Pines are the only two courses on Tour that feature Kikuyu fairways and rough which is something to watch out for. Given the fast Poa Annua greens, the GIR % is roughly 16% lower here than the Tour Average over the last 5 years. The Poa Annua greens can be extremely challenging for some players as they run fast and can be unpredictable.
The course features three Par 5’s all of which vary in length and difficulty. The first hole is a short par five, that’s relatively easy depending on the tee shot. While the seventeenth is a tough uphill par 5 but does play downwind allowing players to gain some yardage.
The four Par 3’s are not that long as three of the four play under 200 yards. The real difficulty of these holes is that they are well protected by bunkers. Hole six actually has a bunker in the middle of the green that can come into play depending on the pin location. The par 3 fourteenth is considered one of the easiest holes on the course and features a wide open green. However, if you’re short here you’re most likely going to end up in a bunker as they surround the green in the front.
In terms of Strokes Gained, the past six winners of the Genesis Invitational have all ranked highly in Tee to Green and Approach. As I previously mentioned, it’s an extremely difficult course as seen by all of the scoring averages from the past three years.
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa Annua)
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained: Around The Green
- Par 4 Scoring: 450-500
- Greens in Regulation %
- Course History
The Field/ Odds:
If Jon Rahm enters a tournament and isn’t the favorite, is it even a golf tournament? He’s currently listed at +950 (FanDuel) and is coming off a 10th place finish in the Waste Management Phoenix Open. While Rahm is currently ranked #1 in the OWGR, he has yet to capture a win during the 2021-22 season. His best finish was back in the Sentry Tournament of Champions where he finished 2nd. He’s been in great form as of late with his recent finishes going T10-T3-T14-2. Rahm will look for this first win of the season and his first win at the Genesis this week.
Following Rahm is Patrick Cantlay who’s currently listed at +1200 on FanDuel. He lost in the Playoff last week to Scottie Scheffler in the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Cantlay has recorded a Top 20 finish at the Genesis his last four entries but has failed to finish higher than 4th which was back in 2018.
Next up is Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas who are both listed at +1600 on FanDuel. JT has missed the cut his last two starts at the Genesis but is in decent form finishing 8-20-5-5 in his last four starts. Dustin Johnson is also in great form finishing 25-8 in his last two starts. He’s had much more success in this tournament than JT finishing 8-10-9-16 in his last four starts and winning the Genesis in 2017.
After the three favorites we have Collin Morikawa at +2000 on DraftKings, Cameron Smith +2200 on DraftKings, and Rory McIlroy at +2200 as well on DraftKings. Rory’s been playing some great golf as of late but hasn’t been playing on the PGA Tour last competing in the Hero World Challenge back in December of 2021. Cam Smith has also been playing a lot of Euro Golf as of late and has been playing well over there. Last year he finished 4th at the Genesis so he’s certainly someone to keep an eye out on. Collin Morikawa hasn’t been in the best of form as of late but if his putter catches fire he always has a great shot to win. He’s played in the Genesis twice, finishing 26th in 2020 and 43rd in 2021.
Other “horses for courses” this week include; Hideki Matsuyama +2500 on Caesars (4th in ’15, 9th in ’19, 5th in ’20), Bubba Watson +4500 on DraftKings (won in ’14,’16’, & ’18), Max Homa +5000 on DraftKings (5th in ’20 & won in ’21), Adam Scott (2nd in ’16, 7th in ’19, and won in ’20) and Tony Finau +5000 on DraftKings (2nd in ’18 & 2nd in ’20).
Click the link, to see the most up to date odds.
Click the link, to find out how everyone in the field has qualified.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2021: Max Homa (-12)
- Price: 60-1
- 2020*: Adam Scott (-11)
- Price: 33-1
- 2019: J.B. Holmes (-14)
- Price: 150-1
- 2018**: Bubba Watson (-12)
- Price: 50-1
- 2017: Dustin Johnson (-17)
- Price: 9-1
* – Adam Scott also won in 2005
* – Bubba Watson also won in 2016 and 2014
Historic Cut Lines:
- 2021: Even
- 2020: +1
- 2019: Even
- 2018: +2
- 2017: Even
Picks (Outright):
- Dustin Johnson (+1600) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units
DJ struggled last year but has seemed to turn things around this season. He finished 25th in the Farmers Insurance Open and 8th in the 2022 Saudi International. I mean to put it plain and simple, DJ loves this course and has played well here nearly every year. He won this event back in 2017 and finished runner up in 2014 and 2015. Starting in 2011 these have been his results at the Genesis MC-4-MC-2-2-4-1-16-9-10-8. He ranks first in the field gaining 2.47 Total Strokes at Riviera. Based on his revitalized form and his course history, I think he repeats here.
- Cameron Smith (+2200) – DraftKings
- Risk: 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Cam Smith also just played in the Saudi International and finished 4th. In his last PGA Tour event he missed the cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii but prior to that he won the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Last year he finished 4th at the Genesis topping his previous best finish which was 6th back in 2017. Cam’s in great form as of late and given his success at this course last season, I think he has a shot to win it this year. He’s gaining strokes in every category at this event besides off the tee which isn’t a crucial stat. Smith is great around the green and if his putter can get hot, he should be a contender.
- Will Zalatoris (+3200) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.25 to win 8.00 Units
Willy Z has been in amazing form this past two weeks finishing T6 at the American Express and 2nd at the Famers Insurance Open. He hasn’t played in the last two events which is a slight concern as most of the previous winners have but I couldn’t keep him off the card this week. Last year he finished 15th at the Genesis. He’s gaining 1.23 Strokes Putting at this event which ranks 2nd. While his play ATG here is a slight concern, he’s been much better this year and ranks 59th in SG: ATG on the Tour. He also ranks top 10 in terms of SG: OTT, SG: APP, SG: TTG, and SG: Total.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+4000) – PointsBet(LATE WITHDRAW)Risk 0.20 to win 8.0 Units
Possibly my favorite play of the week is Fitzpatrick to win the Genesis. He finished T6 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and T10 at the WM Phoenix Open last week. He made his debut at this event in 2020 finishing 30th then followed that up by finishing 5th last year. Fitzpatrick is 38th in SG: OTT, 2nd in SG: APP, 6th in SG: TTG, and 1st in SG: Total on the PGA Tour this year. He’s also gaining strokes in every category at the Genesis and looks to be in great position to win this week.
- Talor Gooch (+5500) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Talor Gooch captured his first win on the PGA Tour at the end of 2021 in the RSM Classic. Prior to the RSM Classic he was in incredible form and post win has since faded ever so slightly. Last week out at the WM Phoenix Open he finished T26. He’s played in the Genesis Invitational three times in his career finishing 20th in 2018, 10th in 2020, and 12th in 2021. Gooch is gaining strokes in every category at this event and ranks in the top in several including approach, tee to green, and ball striking. His putting is always a concern so that will be the make or break for him this week.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.47 Units (UPDATE: 1.27 Units)
Picks (Top 20):
- Adam Scott (+175) – Pointsbet
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
Adam Scott won this event back in 2020 and also has three Top finishes to his name at the Genesis. He struggled a bit in this tournament last year finishing 38th but enters this year in much better form. He had success on the DP Tour this season gathering a 9th and 10th place finish. Last week he made his season debut on the Tour only to finish 38th at the WM Phoenix Open. He ranks 4th overall in the field in terms of strokes gained at the Genesis. Given the combination of the kikuyu fairways/ rough and Poa Annua greens he seems to do well here.
- Thomas Pieters (+270) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.35 Units
Thomas Pieters is going to be a popular play this week no doubt based on his current form. He won the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship over on the DP Tour last month and then finished T12 at the Slync.io Dubai Desert Classic as well. This will be his first time playing at the Genesis since 2018 where he finished 68th. However, in 2017 he was the runner up to Dustin Johnson. He’s gaining strokes in every category at this event besides around the green. He’s a great iron player this week which I think will propel him into the top 20 given the difficulty of these approach shots.
- Alex Noren (+290) – Pointsbet
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.45 Units
Alex Noren enters this event off a 6th place finish at the WM Phoenix Open last week. While he didn’t start the 2021-22 season off strong missing the cut at the RSM Classic and the AmEx, he’s been better as of late. Noren has played in this event three times with his best finish coming last year (12th). He’s 2 for 3 in terms of finishing in the Top 20 at the Genesis with the other time coming back in 2018 (16th). Looking at his SG stats at this event, he’s losing strokes around the green and off the tee which is a slight concern. That being said, he is gaining strokes in approach, tee to green and in putting. He ranks 19th in the field in terms of SG Putting at this event and based on his current form, I think he sneaks into the Top 20 again here.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
- Patrick Rodgers (+165) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 Units to win 1.65 Units
Rodger’s comes into this event in sub-par form missing the cut in his last two events. With that being said, he’s been a Top 40 machine at the Genesis. Since 2017, these have been his finishing positions; 22-26-15-30-12. In all SG categories he’s not losing any strokes at this event. He ranks 18th in the field in terms of SG Putting at the Genesis which is a major category as these Poa Annua greens can frustrate a lot of players.
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on The Genesis Invitational : 4.47 Units (UPDATE 4.27 UNITS)
SG Data at the Genesis: Source
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
