Our run came to an end last week, as we failed to pick the winner in The Genesis Invitational. Shout out to Joaquin Niemann for an incredible performance winning wire-to-wire. He struggled a bit on Sunday but, was able to hold off the late push from Collin Morikawa to capture his second win on the PGA Tour. Our lone cash of the week was Adam Scott Top 20, despite this, we still finished down 1.52 Units last week. Even with the rough week at The Genesis, we’re still up 15.12 Units in the past three weeks.
We now turn our attention to PGA National for The Honda Classic which should provide us with much lower scores than we saw at Riviera. The PGA begins the Florida Swing this week which will bring us bermudagrass that’s much more predictable than the Poa Annua we’ve seen recently.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: February 24th, 2022- February 27th, 2022
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, United States
- Course: PGA National – Champion Course
- Course Type: Florida/ Southeast
- Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
- Length: 7,125 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 144 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
- Greens: TifEagle Bermudagrass
- Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass
- Rough: TifSport Bermudagrass with Perennial Rye 2.25″
- Stimpmeter: 12.0 (Average)
- Purse: $8,000,000 / Winner $1.440 Million
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
- Bunkers: 67
- Water Hazards: – (In-Play on 15 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
- Scoring Average:
- 2021: 71.10 (+1.10), Rank 6 of 51
- 2020: 71.90 (+1.90), Rank 3 of 41
- 2019: 71.02 (+1.02), Rank 5 of 49
- 2018: 72.30 (+2.30), Rank 2 of 51
- 2017: 70.56 (+0.56), Rank 16 of 50
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Course Architect: Tom Fazio (1981)
- Renovations: Jack Nicklaus (1990, 2002, 2014)
- Comparable Courses:
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, February 24th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, February 25th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, February 26th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- NBC – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, February 27th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- NBC – 3:00 PM – 6:30 PM ET
- Thursday: Mostly Sunny 75 F, 13 mp/h ESE, 67% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Partly Cloudy 74 F, 10 mp/h SE, 62% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Partly Cloudy 75 F, 11 mp/h ENE, 65% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Partly Cloudy 72 F, 10 mp/h SSE, 64% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The Honda Classic begins the Florida Swing of the PGA Tour. The event was founded in 1972 as the Jackie Gleason’s Inverrary Classic. In 1973 National Airlines was co-sponsor with Gleason until 1981, when American Motors Corporation took over the sponsorship rights. In 1982, Honda became the title sponsor and has retained the rights ever since.
In 2007, PGA National became the permanent host of this event and ever since has attracted a better field. While it’s still one of the weaker fields on Tour, the strength of the field has slowly improved year by year. In addition to the field improving, the purse has increased as well. It jumps up to $8 Million dollars this year from the $7 Million offered in 2020 and 2021.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
PGA National is one of the toughest courses players will face on the Tour outside of the Majors. Over the past five years, the scoring average has been above par every year. In 2021, only six holes played under par (#1,#8,#9,#13), which included the two par 5’s (#3,#18).
In terms of length, PGA National is not overly long measuring 7,125 yards. It ranks roughly around the Tour average, ranking slightly shorter actually. The fairways are on the narrower side of things with the average fairway width being 29.4 feet. This ranks as the 12th narrowest course on the Tour so Strokes Gained Off the Tee will definitely be a key category this week. Even with the narrow fairways, the rough this week is relatively short so missing the fairway wont be as costly. The average green size is roughly 7,000 square feet which is on the larger side of things when compared to the other courses on Tour.
The main defense of the course is predominately the water hazards, that come into play on nearly every hole (15/18). While the course is relatively short, these water hazards can force layups on certain holes. The course is also very susceptible to winds, which can become a major factor on approach shots.
The “Bear-Trap” will also be a phrase that’s referred to a lot this weeks and that’s in reference to Holes 15-16-17. All of these holes played over par last year which leads to an exciting finish. Holes 15 and 17 are Par 3’s both under 200 yards with water being a major factor. Hole 16 is a Par 4 that forces players to hit a tough approach shot into a tight green that’s protected on all sides.
To see the hole by hole strokes average last year, you can click the following link.
For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
- Par 4 Scoring
- Scrambling
- Greens in Regulation %
- Bogey Avoidance
- Birdie to Bogey Ratio
The Field/ Odds:
When looking at this week’s field compared to recent weeks on the PGA Tour, it’s definitely not as strong as only 12 of the Worlds Top 50 golfers are competing here at PGA National. Louis Oosthuizen is the top ranked player in the filed at 13 and is currently at +2000 on FanDuel.
Sungjae Im opens up as the favorite for the Honda Classic at 13-1 on FanDuel. He’s even lower on other books, including DraftKings where he’s listed at 10-1. Im won this event back in 2020 and finished 8th in 2021. In addition to his great course history, he’s been in great form with his most recent finishes; 8-MC-11-6-33.
Daniel Berger is the next line, listed at 16-1 on most books (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM). There’s some doubt’s over his health here (back issues) as he pulled out Pebble Beach, then missed the cut in the Waste Management Phoenix Open. However, if he’s entered in this event he clearly feels like he can compete. Berger last played in The Honda Classic back in 2020 where he finished 4th. He went through a rough stretch here at PGA National from 2019-2016, with his best finishing being 29th in 2018. In his tournament debut he did finish 2nd back in 2015.
Last weeks winner Joaquin Niemann, is listed at 18-1 on DraftKings and BetMGM and as low as 16-1 on FanDuel. He was absolutely incredible in the Genesis Invitational winning wire to wire. Niemann’s best finish at The Honda Classic was last year where he finished 25th. Prior to that, he missed the cut in 2020 and finished 59th in 2019 when he made his tournament debut.
Brooks Koepka is the third favorite this week listed at 20-1 on all books. He hasn’t been all that consistent as of late, missing the cut in two of his last three starts. He did place 3rd in the Waste Management Phoenix Open though. His best finish at The Honda Classic was back in 2019 where he finished 2nd, but in 2020 he missed the cut. This is a tough week to play Brooks given his recent form, but given the weaker field, he does have a good shot to win this event.
Some other popular plays this week will most likely be:
- Tommy Fleetwood (20-1)
- He finished 4th at the Honda Classic in 2018 and 3rd in 2020.
- Keith Mitchell (35-1)
- He finished 12th and 10th in his two most recent starts and won this event back in 2019.
- Billy Horschel (22-1)
- He has been solid recently, making the cut in his last six starts. Horschel finished 8th in 2016 and 4th in 2017 at this event.
- Denny McCarthy (60-1)
- He’s in solid form as of late, besides missing the cut in his last start. He finished 3rd in this event last year .
Click the link, to see the most up to date odds.
Click the link, to find out how everyone in the field has qualified.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2021: Matt Jones (-12)
- Price: 80-1
- 2020*: Sungjae Im (-6)
- Price: 35-1
- 2019: Keith Mitchell (-9)
- Price: 300-1
- 2018: Justin Thomas (-8)
- Price: 12-1
- 2017: Rickie Fowler (-12)
- Price: 18-1
Historic Cut Lines:
- 2021: +1
- 2020: +3
- 2019: +2
- 2018: +5
- 2017: E
Picks (Outright):
- Alex Noren (+3500) – BetMGM
- Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
We were on Noren last week T40 and he just missed out finishing 48th. He’s made the cut in his last three events and has finished 39-6-48. His best finish at The Honda Classic came back in 2018 where he finished 3rd. Last year at this event, he finished 46. As of late Noren has been playing some of his best golf, and returns to a course he’s gaining strokes in nearly every category besides Around the Green.
- Mackenzie Hughes (+5000) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Mackenzie Hughes also won The Honda Classic back in 2020 but ended up one stroke back to Sungjae Im. He hasn’t been great recently missing the cut in his past two of three events but did finish T16 at Pebble. In 2021, he finished T36 in this event. Hughes isn’t a great player off the tee but is very good around the green. He’s also a great putting as he ranks 2nd in SG: Putting on the Tour this year. In terms of Par 4 Scoring he ranks well and in addition to that, he ranks very well in Birdie Average.
- Lucas Glover (+6600) – BetMGM
- Risk 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
Glover seems to love playing here when looking at his SG statistics. His best finish recently at The Honda Classic was back in 2019 where he finished 4th. In 2021 he finished 21st at PGA National. In his last five events, he’s finished 35-5-33-MC-37 which is pretty good. On Tour this year, he ranks 73rd in SG: OTT, 32nd in SG:APP, and 59th in SG:T2G. His putting is a concern but since 2016 he’s gaining 0.37 strokes putting at PGA National.
- Lee Westwood (+7000) – Pointsbet
- Risk 0.12 to win 8.4 Units
Lee Westwood has been playing some pretty good golf lately as his last three finishes are 20-32-21. He’s had some success here at PGA National gathering three top-10’s in the past ten years. Last year he did struggle in this event and missed the cut but given his recent form I think he has a much better shot this year.
- Chris Kirk (+7000) – Draftkings
- Risk 0.12 to win 8.4 Units
Chris Kirk is coming off a T14 at the WM Phoenix Open. Prior to that event, he missed the cut at Pebble and The American Express. Last year at The Honda Classic, he finished 25th. On the year, Kirk ranks 31st in SG: OTT, 32nd in SG: ATG, 23rd in SG:T2G, and 25th in SG: Total. His putting is definitely a concern, but he’s a solid player off the tee and if his irons are on he has a shot here. He struggles to make birdies which is also a concern but, he does limit bogeys as he’s T55 in Birdie to Bogey Ratio.
- Michael Thompson (+8000) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Thompson’s been inconsistent as of late, missing the cut in his last two events (Pebble & WM Phoenix Open). Before those two tournaments he did finish T11 in the Farmers Insurance Open and T5 in the Sony Open. Thompson won The Honda Classic back in 2013 and has two top-20’s here in the past four years.
- Sepp Straka (+12500) – Pointsbet
- Risk 0.07 to win 8.75 Units
Sepp Straka has yet to miss a cut in his last five tournaments and has had the following finishing positions in those events; 42-49-16-66-15. He’s played at The Honda Classic three times in his career, missing the cut in 2019, finishing 27th in 2020, and 33rd in 2021. In terms of the field, who have played in this event before, he ranks 22nd in SG:OTT, 17th in SG:T2G, and 37th in SG:ATG. He’s been playing well as of late and is familiar with the course so hopefully he can get his first win on the Tour here.
- J.J Spaun (+15000) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.06 to win 9.00 Units
When putting together my card for the week, I almost left him off in favor of Nick Taylor but when I looked at the numbers, he’s been the better golfer this year. He struggled at The Genesis Invitational missing the cut but rattled off three top-40’s before that with his best finish coming at Pebble (T16). He’s solid off the tee in terms of accuracy and is a fairly good player around the green, ranking 59th in SG:ATG. Spaun has missed the cut in his last two appearances at PGA National but finished 21st in 2017. He seems to be in solid form given his last few starts so at 100-1, he’s worth a shot. If Nick Taylor wins this week, it’s going to be a very bad Sunday….
- Ryan Armour (+21000) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.04 to win 8.4 Units
Why not? I mean when you really break down the numbers at 210-1, Ryan Armour is worth a shot. In his most recent performances he finished T28 at Pebble and T20 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. This season he ranks 31st in SG: OTT, 54th in SG: APP, and 84th in SG:TTG. He’s 3rd in Driving Accuracy % and 34th in Par 4 Scoring Average. In his six apperances here at The Honda Classic, he’s missed the cut four times but finished 12th and 58th those two other times. He hasn’t played in the past two weeks but hey who knows? Keith Mitchell won this event at 300-1 back in 2019.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.03 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Tommy Fleetwood (+200) – FanDuel (Currently +130, gave out play on Twitter)
- Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
Tommy Fleetwood seems to love PGA National, he’s only played here twice but finished 4th in 2018 and 3rd in 2020. In terms of the field, who have played in this event before, he ranks top 3 in every strokes gained category. Given the number of +150, I feel like this play has some incredible value. To top it all off, he’s finished 12th and 8th in his last two tournaments.
- Billy Horschel (+150) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
Horschel has been great as of late with a top-10 and two two-20 finishes in his last five appearances. His best finishes at The Honda Classic came back in 2016 and 2017, where he finished 8th and 4th respectively. He missed the cut in 2018, and followed that up by finishing 16th in 2019 and 42nd in 2020. Given his recent form, and course history, I think he finds the top-20 this week. He’s 14th in Par 4 Scoring Average, 9th in Birdie or Better %, and 18th in Greens in Regulation %.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
- Sam Ryder (+175) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
Sam Ryder comes into The Honda Classic off a T26 in The Genesis Invitational and a T23 in the WM Phoenix Open. He’s played in this event twice, finishing 53 back in 2020 and 8th last year. While he doesn’t really rank well in terms of SG categories on the PGA Tour this year, he does rank well at PGA National. In terms of the field, who have played in this event before, he ranks 5th in SG-APP, 5th in SG:T2G, and 6th in SG:BST.
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on The Honda Classic : 4.03 Units
SG Data at the Genesis: Source
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
