The Honda Classic – Preview & Picks

Jon Rahm wins the Genesis Invitational to capture his third victory in his last five starts. In his seven PGA Tour appearances this season, he has never finished worse than T8. With that victory, he recaptured the number-one world ranking. Max Homa put up a fight but ultimately fell two shots short. Tiger Woods also made his return to the PGA Tour where he finished T45.

We switch coasts as the Honda Classic takes place at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida this week. Given its spot in the PGA Tour schedule, it’s an extremely weak field. It’s sandwiched between two of the newly elevated events which have caused each of the top-15 golfers in the world to skip this event.

Last year, we caught Sepp Straka at 125-1 at the Honda Classic! He came from five strokes behind on Sunday to capture his first career PGA Tour victory. Let’s see if we can recapture that magic and find this year’s winner!

🚨Honda Classic Tipster Round Up🚨

Sepp!! Congrats backers and E/W bets!
Nearly 3/3 for the charts with Lowry! 😣

🏆🥇Straka@GatorBetting @SkyHookDFS

🥈Lowry@GimmieBets @bazplummer @SportsGuyTy @Tyler__Duke @golfbore71 @BrumGolfTipster @flag_hunting @sameaton12

— Golf Tips Checker (@GolfTipsChecker) February 27, 2022

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: February 23rd, 2023 – February 26th, 2023
• Location: Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, United States
• Course: PGA National (The Champion)
• Course Type: Florida/ Parkland
• Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
• Length: 7,125 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .115”
• Fairways: Celebration bermudagrass .400”
• Rough: TifSport bermuda overseeded with Perennial ryegrass 2.5’
• Water Hazard(s): In-Play on 15 Holes
• Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $8,400,000/ $1,512,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 144 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: +2
  • 2021: +1
  • 2020: +3
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 71.34 (+1.34), Rank 7 of 50
  • 2021: 71.10 (+1.10), Rank 6 of 51
  • 2020: 71.90 (+1.90), Rank 3 of 41

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, February 23rd, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, February 24th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, February 25th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • NBC – 3:00 PM – 6:30 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, February 26th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • NBC – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Sunny 84 F, 12 mp/h SSE, 64% Humidity, 6% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Sunny 84 F, 9 mp/h E, 67% Humidity, 6% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Partly Cloudy 84 F, 9 mp/h ESE, 64% Humidity, 7% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Sunny 86 F, 10 mp/h SW, 62% Humidity,6% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Honda Classic begins the Florida Swing of the PGA Tour. The event was founded in 1972 as the Jackie Gleason-Inverrary Classic. In 1973 National Airlines was co-sponsor with Gleason until 1981 when American Motors Corporation took over the sponsorship rights. In 1982, Honda became the title sponsor and has retained the rights ever since. However, after this season they are set to end their 42-year run as the title sponsor for this event.

In 2007, PGA National became the permanent host of this event. On the property, they have six golf courses but ‘The Champion’ will be the only course that’s used. It was originally designed by Tom and George Fazio in 1981. Since then, the course has undergone several renovations under the supervision of Jack Nicklaus’ company. In 2014, the par-four fourteenth was significantly altered along with the expansion of several greens (No 1, 9, 15, and 17). Five years ago, Nicklaus Design’s removed several palmetto palms on the ninth hole allowing for an easier approach shot. The latest renovation (last year) included the removal of several bunkers on No. 13 and No. 16 in addition to the reduction of a few bunkers on No. 17 and No. 18.

This year’s field is a significant drop-off from last year’s event. Given the position of this event in the middle of two designated events, most of the top players have decided to skip this stop. This is one of the main reasons that Honda has dropped their sponsorship as they feel slighted by the PGA Tour. Despite it being one of the weaker fields on Tour, the purse has still been increasing. This year’s purse is $8.4 million which is $1.4 million more than what was offered in 2021.

• 72-Hole Record (PGA National):
  • 267, Camilo Villegas (2010)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 61, Brian Harman (2nd round, 2012), Matt Jones (1st round, 2021)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

PGA National is one of the toughest courses players will face on the Tour outside of the Majors. Over the past five years, the scoring average has been above par every year. In 2022, only two holes (No. 1 & No. 13) were played under par outside of the two par 5’s (No. 3 & No.18).

In terms of length, PGA National is not overly long measuring 7,125 yards. It ranks roughly around the Tour average, ranking slightly shorter actually. The fairways are on the narrower side, with the average fairway width being 29.4 feet. This ranks as the 11th narrowest course on the Tour so Strokes Gained Off the Tee will be a key category this week. Even with the narrow fairways, the rough this week is relatively short so missing the fairway won’t be as costly. The average green size is roughly 7,000 square feet which is on the larger side of things when compared to the other courses on Tour.

The course’s main defense is predominately the water hazards that come into play on nearly every hole (15/18). While the course is relatively short, these water hazards can force layups on certain holes. The course is also very susceptible to winds, which can become a major factor on approach shots.

The “Bear-Trap” will also be a phrase that’s referred to a lot this week and that’s in reference to Holes 15-16-17. All of these holes were played over par last year which leads to an exciting finish. Holes 15 and 17 are Par 3’s both under 200 yards with water being a major factor. Hole 16 is a Par 4 that forces players to hit a tough approach shot into a tight green that’s protected on all sides.

The four Par 3’s range between 175 yards and 226 yards. In terms of stats, the majority (two) of the Par 3’s range between 175 – 200 yards.

No. 15, is the start of the ‘Bear Trap’ and while it’s not the longest of the Par 3’s on the course, it is the toughest playing 0.212 strokes over par last year. Players will try and hit an iron into a diagonal green that slopes towards the water on the right. A bunker protects the back of the green which has proven to be a challenge in the past given the limited landing area.

The majority of the twelve Par 4’s range between 400-500 yards. No. 1 is the shortest listed at 365 yards with the longest being No. 10, playing 508 yards.

No. 6, is a long par-4 playing 479 yards that is normally a par-5 but is changed for this event. Last year, this was the toughest par-4 on the course playing 0.378 strokes over par. Off the tee, it’s extremely narrow with water to the left and fairway bunkers on the right. From there, players will try and hit a shot into a small green that, you guessed it, is surrounded by more water and bunkers. The green is a three-tiered green which can leave some difficult putts depending on the pin location for the day.

The two Par 5’s are No. 3 and No. 18. They both played under par last year and will need to be taken advantage of if players want to have a chance this week.

No 18, is listed at 556 yards on the scorecard but on the official website is listed at 604 yards… I’m going to choose the scorecard but is something to monitor this week. It’s a double dogleg par 5 that first goes left and then right. Off the tee, players will have water and bunkers along both sides. From there, it gets a little more difficult as they have to weigh the risk vs reward for their second shot. The green is nestled between numerous bunkers and water which can come into play if they flair one out left.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15, 16, 17

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
• Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards (x5)
• Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 Yards (x2)
• Proximity: 125 – 150 Yards
• Proximity: 150 – 175 Yards
• Scrambling
• Bogey Avoidance
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 144 players in the field at this year’s Honda Classic. Only 3 of the world’s top 20 players will be in the field. Sepp Straka will look to defend his title after he became the first Austrian to win on the PGA Tour. If he can do so, he’ll join Jack Nicklaus as the only player to have won back-to-back years at this event. Here are the current favorites in this week’s field:

• Sungjae Im (+900), struggled in his final round at the Genesis last week finishing T56. Before that, he had finished T18/ T4/ T6 in his last three starts on Tour. Last year at this event, he missed the cut losing 1.52 strokes on the green. In 2020 he won the Honda Classic and finished T8 in 2021.
• Shane Lowry (+1400), was the runner-up at the Honda Classic last year. In his five starts at PGA National, he has never missed the cut. He’s coming off a T14 finish at the Genesis Invitational last week. Before that, he missed the cut at the WM Pheonix Open losing strokes in every major category. His best finish this season was at the Hero World Challenge where he placed 18th.
• Min Woo Lee (+2500), will compete in his first PGA Tour event of the season. He played in all four of the majors last season with his best finishes coming at The Masters (T14) and The Open Championship (T21). He’s played in four DP World Tour events this year finishing T13/ T2/ 3rd/ T4. Lee has never played in this event before so he has no course history here.
• Alex Noren (+2500), will make his sixth appearance at the Honda Classic this week. Last year, he finished T5 at this event. His best finish ever at PGA National was back in 2018 when he placed 3rd. Noren’s coming off a missed cut at the WM Phoenix Open where he struggled off the tee. Before that, he finished T5 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (DP World Tour) and T4 at the Houston Open.
• Aaron Wise (+2500), has missed the cut in his last two starts (WM Phoenix Open & The American Express). Before that, he finished inside the top-22 in his last four starts. He’ll be playing in his fifth Honda Classic finishing T33/ T35/ T13/ MC in his four previous appearances at PGA National.

 

• Previous Winners in the field:
  • Sepp Straka (’22), Sungjae Im (’20), Padraig Harrington (’15, ’05), Rory Sabbatini (’11), Camilo Villegas (’10), Luke Donald (’06), and Matt Kuchar (’02)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • Dany Lee, Sam Ryder, David Lipsky, Patrick Rodgers

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

• Sepp Straka: MC/ T27/ T33/ 1
• Sungjae Im: T51/ 1/ T8/ MC
• Sam Ryder: T53/ T8/ T9
• Byeong-Hun An: T5/ T36/ T4/ MC

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.

• Arjun Atwal: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Kevin Tway: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Michael Gligic: MC/ MC/ MC
• Andrew Landry: MC/ MC/ MC
• Brandon Wu: MC/ MC
• Doc Redman: MC/ MC
• Henrik Norlander: MC/ MC
• Hank Lebioda: T70/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Martin Trainer: MC/ MC/ MC/ T48

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Sepp Straka (-10)
  • Price: 125-1
• 2021: Matt Jones (-12)
  • Price: 80-1
• 2020: Sungjae Im (-6)
  • Price: 35-1
• 2019: Keith Mitchell (-9)
  • Price: 300-1
• 2018: Justin Thomas (-8)
  • Price: 12-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Thomas Detry (+4000) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

• Jhonattan Vegas (+4400) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.19 to win 8.36 Units

• Ben Griffin (+6600) – BetRivers
  • Risk: 0.13 to win 8.58 Units

• Joseph Bramlett (+7000) – BetRivers
  • Risk: 0.12 to win 8.40 Units

• Byeong-Hun An (+8000) – BetRivers
  • Risk: 0.10 to win 8.00 Units

• S H Kim (+8000) – BetRivers
  • Risk: 0.10 to win 8.00 Units

• Ben Taylor (+10000) – BetRivers
  • Risk: 0.08 to win 8.00 Units

• Mark Hubbard (+15000) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 0.06 to win 9.00 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 0.98 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Chris Kirk (+140) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.40 Units

Chris Kirk struggled in his last start missing the cut at the WM Phoenix Open. Before that, he finished T3 at The American Express and 3rd at the Sony Open. He struggled with his irons at the WM Phoenix Open but has been great in his two starts before that. Last year he finished T7 at The Honda Classic despite gaining no strokes off the tee or on approach. If you exclude last week, Kirk has been playing some great golf and has shown he can have success on this course. In this weak field, he should compete and be able to finish in the top 20.

• Adam Svensson (+165) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.65 Units

Adam Svensson had a great week at the Genesis Invitational finishing T9 despite losing strokes on approach. Earlier this season, he won the RSM Classic gaining over three strokes on the green. PGA National features a similar green complex to those at Sea Island which is a positive. However, he did lose strokes putting last year at this event but still managed to finish T9. He’s been much better with the flat stick this season along with his play off the tee which is encouraging.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Hayden Buckley (+100) – Bet365
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

While Buckley isn’t a contender in some of these bigger events, he has proven himself in the weaker events this season. In his ten starts on Tour this year, he has finished inside the top 40 six times. His best finish of the year was at Waialae Country Club where he finished 2nd. He’s missed the cut in two of his last three starts on Tour but those were events that had a much stronger field. Buckley is great off the tee and his approach numbers have been decent in his last few starts. One major positive has been his putting. Last year on Tour he ranked 169th in SG: Putting and this year he ranks 86th.

• Sam Stevens (+160) – Bet365
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

Sam Stevens has made the cut in his last three starts on Tour which is something half of the field can’t say. He finished 67th at the Amex followed by T13 at the Farmers and most recently T34 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He’s been fantastic on the greens in his last two starts gaining over a stroke on the field. Last year at the Honda Classic, he finished T55 where he also putted well. His downfall was off the tee but most recently he has gained strokes in that category in each of his last six starts on Tour. Steven’s approach play has also been much more consistent which should help him this week.

Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on The Honda Classic: 4.98 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.