What a run we’re on! We caught Matthew Fitzpatrick (30-1) at the US Open and we followed it up with Xander Schauffele (22-1) at the Travelers Championship. I was fortunate enough to go Saturday and what a venue. It’s a fun course that’s perfectly designed for fan interaction coming down the stretch.
Let’s start with this, Sunday was a sweat. We saw Xander go off with a one stroke lead over Patrick Cantlay heading into the final 18. From the start Cantlay struggled and after nine holes it was clear he wouldn’t be Xander’s main competition. Kevin Kisner, J.T. Poston and, amatuer Michael Thorbjorsen showed flashes Sunday but, it was ultimately Sahith Theegala who gave Xander a run for the title. Heading into 18, Theegala had a one stroke lead but, after making double bogey, it was Schauffele’s tournament to lose. He would go on to bomb a drive and stick a wedge to a few feet to capture his first individual PGA Tour win in three years.
We now move onto the John Deere Classic, a tournament that’s not known for having the strongest of fields. Understandably so as most of the worlds top players are headed overseas in preparation of The Open. We’ve seen some longshots win this event in the past few editions, so let’s see if we can find that guy.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: June 30th, 2022 – July 3rd, 2022
- Location: Silvis, Illinois, United States
- Course: TPC Deere Run
- Course Type: Midwest
- Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
- Length: 7,289 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
- Greens: L-93 bentgrass .100″
- Fairways: Southshore bentgrass .400″
- Rough: Kentucky bluegrass / fescue 4″
- Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
- Purse: $7,100,000 / $1,278,000 Winner
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
- Bunkers: 76
- Water Hazards: 3 (In-Play on 3 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft.
- Course Scoring Average:
- 2021: 69.51 (-1.49), Rank 41 of 51
- 2019: 69.51 (-1.49), Rank 35 of 19
- 2018: 69.38 (-1.62), Rank 46 of 51
- Historic Cut Line:
- 2021: -4
- 2019: -3
- 2018: -3
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Course Architect: D.A. Weibring (1999)
- Renovation(s): PGA Tour (2006/2007)
- Comparable Courses:
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, June 30th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, July 1st, 2022
- Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, July 2nd, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, July 3rd, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
Weather:
- Thursday: Mostly Sunny 81 F, 16 mp/h SSW, 45% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Scattered Thunderstorms 74 F, 8 mp/h W, 64% Humidity, 50% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Mostly Cloudy 74 F, 7 mp/h E, 59% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Mostly Sunny 75 F, 7 mp/h E 62% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The John Deere Classic, then known as the Quad Cities Open began in 1971 as a “satellite event” for the PGA Tour. A year later, it became an official PGA Tour event.
From 1971 to 1974, the event was played at Crow Valley Country Club. Following that, it moved to Oakwood Country Club where it was held until 1999. At the turn of the century, TPC Deere Run became the host site.
This tournament is also part of the Open Qualifying Series. It is the final chance for a player not already exempt, to earn entry into the Open if he finishes in the top five. Since 2008, the John Deere Classic has sponsored a charter flight that leaves the Quad Cities post tournament and lands in Britain the following day.
History was made here back in 2013, when nineteen year old Jordan Spieth became the first teenager to win on the PGA Tour since 1931.
In 2021, Lucas Glover birdied five of his last seven holes to win the John Deere Classic. Prior to that, his last win on the PGA Tour was at the Wells Fargo Championship back in 2011. Glover became just the seventh player to win in the 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s.
After the John Deere Classic wrapped up last year, the course underwent a major renovation. The $1.8 million dollar project involved new tee boxes (No. 1), the reconfiguration of numerous bunkers and, provided the course with a better drainage system.
Something else to note is that five of the last ten winners at TPC Deere Run captured their first win on the PGA Tour. Also since to 2012, four of the last nine John Deere Classics have come down to a playoff.
72-Hole Record: 257, Michael Kim (2018)
18-Hole Record: 59, Paul Goydos (1st Round, 2010)
Most tournament wins: 3; D. A. Weibring (1979, 1991, 1995) & Steve Stricker (2009, 2010, 2011)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 that plays 7,289 yards. The course features, four Par 3’s, eleven Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. Looking back at past winners, it’s been a mix of players who’ve found success. It’s a course that requires birdies, and lots of them. At TPC Deere Run, the landing spaces off the tee are open and the greens are large, so a hot putter will be the difference this week.
Starting with the Par 3’s, two of the four play 200+ yards, No. 7 and No. 12. Half of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par last year with those being No. 3 and No. 12. Hole No.7 had a scoring average just below par, 2.998.
Out of those two Par 3’s with a scoring average over par, No. 3 is the most difficult. Hole No. 3 is uphill and plays longer than the 186 yards listed on the card. Off the tee the entire putting surface isn’t visible so players may not see where their shot lands. A set of bunkers guards the green on the right while the left has long rough. The green slopes front to back making the correct club selection even more difficult.
Holes 2, 10, and 17 are the three Par 5’s at TPC Deere Run. All of these holes had a scoring average below par last year.
No. 2 had the most eagles and birdies recorded on it last year. It’s listed at 561 yards but given the downhill tee shot, it plays much shorter than that. A good drive off the tee will allow players to attack this green in two. The green is very well protected so players may elect to layup in the secondary landing area and have an easy approach shot.
Hole No. 10 had the highest scoring average of all of the Par 5’s last year. It makes sense, as it’s also the longest playing nearly 600 yards. Off the tee it’s not overly difficult but as players get closer to the green the hole gets more difficult.
Out of the eleven Par 4’s at TPC Deere Run, six of the holes had a scoring average over par last year. The most difficult hole was No 9 that had an average of 4.276 strokes.
Hole No. 9 is also the longest Par 4 on the course playing over 500 yards in length. It’s a narrow hole that features an elevated green protected by bunkers on either side.
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Par 4 Scoring: 400- 450 Yards
- Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards
- Birdie or Better %
- Bogey Avoidance
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Course History
The Field/ Odds:
As I mentioned before, this event is historically known for having a weak field. The highest ranked player in the mix this week is Webb Simpson who’s 58th in the OWGR. Defending champion Lucas Glover is in the field this week and will look to become the first to successfully defend his title since Steve Stricker (’09,’10, ’11).
Webb Simpson (+1200), is the odds on favorite this week to win the John Deere Classic. He’s played here three times with his last appearance coming in 2010. In his debut he missed the cut but, finished T39 in 2009 and T21 in 2010. Last week at TPC River Highlands, Webb finished T13. Including the Travelers Championship, his finished inside the top-27 in three of his last four starts.
Adam Hadwin (+1600), returns to TPC River Highlands for the first time since 2016. He’s played in this event twice, finishing T18 in 2015 and T8 in 2016. Hadwin enters the John Deere Classic in decent form making the cut in his last four events. In his last Tour appearance, he finished T7 at the U.S. Open.
Sahith Theegala (+2500), was one hole away from possibly winning the Travelers Championship last week. He’s made the cut in each of his last six tournaments with two top-5 finishes during that span. Given his performance last week, his odds have dropped since they first came out. This week, he’ll be making his debut at the John Deere Classic.
Denny McCarthy (+2500), enters the John Deere Classic off a missed cut at the Travelers Championship. Before last week, he has finished inside the top-10 in his last two starts. In his three appearances at TPC Deere Run, he’s missed the cut twice.
Previous winners in the field; Lucas Glover (’21), Dylan Frittelli (’19), Ryan Moore (’16), Zach Johnson (’12), and Steve Stricker (’09,’10, ’11).
Notable Withdraws: K. Aphibarnrat, K. Kitayama, S. Bae, D. Riley, J.J. Spaun, D. Berger, S. Stricker
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses For Courses:
Lucas Glover (+4500), has played in the John Deere Classic twelve times before. In his last three starts at TPC Deere Run, he’s finished 25-10-1. Glover has made the cut in his last four starts on Tour.
Adam Schenk (+5000), makes his fourth appearance at the John Deere Classic this year. In his three starts prior, he missed the cut in his debut (2018), but finished T6 in 2019 and T4 in 2021. Last week at the Travelers Championship, Schenk missed the cut. Prior to that, he finished T26 or better in his last two starts.
Zach Johnson (+10000), has played in the John Deere nineteen times, the most of any player in the field. He’s had tremendous success here winning back in 2012 and finishing inside the top-5, six other times. Last year, he finished T34.
Ryan Moore (+10000), won this event back in 2016 and finished runner-up last year. In addition to those two placements, he has finished inside the top-10 two other times. On Tour, Moore has made the cut in his last four starts.
Scott Brown (+12500), has played in the John Deere Classic nine times before. Out of those nine starts, he’s finished inside the top-25 seven times. In Brown’s nine starts on Tour thus year, he has missed the cut four times and never finished better than 35 (Zurich Classic).
Wesley Bryan (+20000), makes his first appearance at TPC Deere Run since 2018, when he missed the cut. In his two other starts at the John Deere, he finished 8th in 2016 and 3rd in 2017. On Tour, Bryan has missed the cut four times in his last six starts.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2021: Lucas Glover (-19)
- Price: 55-1
- 2020: Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic
- Price: N/A
- 2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21)
- Price: 90-1
- 2018: Michael Kim (-27)
- Price: 300-1
- 2017: Bryson Dechambeau (-18)
- Price: 55-1
- 2016: Ryan Moore (-22)
- Price: 25-1
Picks (Outright):
For picks this week, it’s all about looking at the positives. This is a field that doesn’t have a lot of players with tremendous upside. Despite the easy course and weak field, it’ still extremely difficult to win on the PGA Tour. In order to do that, pretty much everything has to go right as well as getting a few bounces your way. This week in particular, don’t let anyone sway you off a player as anything can happen, especially at TPC Deere Run.
- Cameron Davis (+4500) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Cameron Davis has played in the John Deere Classic twice, finishing T53 in 2019 and T55 in 2021. Since missing the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship, Cameron Davis has been playing some pretty good golf. He finished T48 at the PGA Championship, T7 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, T53 at the Memorial, and T56 at the Travelers. Last week at the TPC River Highlands, he shot sub-70 in the first two rounds before falling off on the weekend.
The main weakness’ in his game revolve around the green. Davis ranks 138th in SG: ATG and 95th in SG: Putting. He’s gained strokes putting in five of his last six starts and in two of his last four around the green. His approach play has been great gaining strokes in eight of his last nine starts. Overall, Davis has seen TPC Deere Run a couple of times before and given the way his play has been trending, he should have shot this week.
- Cameron Champ (+5500) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
In terms of recent form, Cameron Champ has been awful missing the cut in his last four stars. He’s played in the John Deere twice, missing the cut in his debut and finishing T11 last year. When we look at comparable courses, TPC Twin Cities is one that sticks out. In 20201, Cameron Champ won the 3M Open by two strokes. Champ’s best finish this year was the Mexico Open, where he finished T6. That was another short course that had an extremely weak field.
He’s currently number one on Tour in terms of Driving Distance and we’ve seen bombers have success here prior. If we can limit his approach shots and play well off the tee, he may just have a shot. In those last four missed cuts he’s lost strokes putting but, in his two most recent tournaments that he’s gained strokes putting, he finished T6 and T10. While his recent form hasn’t been encouraging at all, I do like the course comps as well as the course history.
- Doug Ghim (+6000) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.14 to win 8.40 Units
Last week at TPC River Highlands Doug Ghim struggled, missing the cut. He wasn’t great with his approach play which has been a common path to success at the Travelers. Prior to that, he finished T18 at the RBC Canadian Open and T60 at the Memorial. He made his debut at the John Deere Classic last year and finished T18. He was supposed to play in 2018 but withdrew.
Even through he struggled last week with his irons, it’s oddly been the best part of his game ranking 49th in strokes gained. Ghim isn’t long off the tee but he is very accurate ranking inside the top-50. The main areas of concern for him is his short game and putting. If we look at his most recent performances, he’s gained strokes on the green in his last two tournaments. In last year’s tournament he did lose strokes putting with his approach play carrying him.
- Adam Svensson (+6500) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.13 to win 8.45 Units
He comes into the John Deere Classic in great form making the cut in his last five starts on Tour. In his last two events, he’s finished inside the top-25 (Canadian Open & Travelers). Svensson has played in the John Deere Classic once before back in 2019 where he finished T18. For course comps, he finished T15 at the 3M Open (2019) and T25 at the Travelers (2022).
The main weakness’ in his game revolve around the green. Davis ranks 153rd in SG: ATG and 144th in SG: Putting. However, he’s gained strokes on the green in each of his last four starts. In terms of around the green, he’s gained strokes in three of his last five events.
- Martin Laird (+7000) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.12 to win 8.40 Units
Martin Laird has played in the John Deere Classic three times before. He finished T29 in 2008, T37 in 2019 and, T28 in 2021. Last week, Laird finished T13 at the Travelers Championship shooting three sub-70 rounds. Prior to that, he’s missed the cut in two of his last three events. However, the one tournament he did make the cut in (Canadian Open), he placed T37.
In terms of strokes gained categories, Laird’s main weakness has been his putting. His putting hasn’t been great losing strokes on the green in his last five tournaments. If we go back to last year, he did gain strokes putting at TPC Deere Run last year.
- Hank Lebioda (+8000) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Hank Lebioda will make his third appearance at the John Deere Classic. In 2019, when he made his debut, he missed the cut. However, in last year’s tournament he finished 8th gaining over a stroke on the green. He’s made the cut in his last two events, finishing T28 (RBC Canadian Open) and T56 (Travelers Championship).
He struggles off the tee ranking 171st in strokes gained. Lebioda is also towards the bottom in terms of distance but, has been fairly accurate with the driver. His approach game is decent with putting being the main area of his game that he excels at. This event has turned into a putting the contest the past few renditions, so that should help him. The one concern for him is that he did come into this tournament last year in better form.
Longshots that missed the card:
- Nick Taylor (80-1), Ryan Moore (130-1), Andrew Landry (300-1), Kevin Tway (320-1)
Total Risk on Outrights: 0.82 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Chez Reavie (+260) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 2.60 Units
Chez Reavie is coming off a T8 finish at the Travelers Championship last week with all four rounds under par. Prior to TPC River Highlands, he finished T27 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He’s played in the John Deere Classic nine times before finishing inside the top-20 in three of those rounds. One of those top-20 finishes was last year when he placed T18. His best finish at TPC Deere Run was T5 back in 2011.
The best part of his game is his approach play, where he ranks 59th in strokes gained. He’s not great off the tee in terms of distance but, ranks 3rd on Tour in accuracy. Putting is the main concern for him as he ranks 171st in strokes gained. However, he’s gained strokes in three of his last five starts on the green. His recent form has been great and given the weak field, I’m hoping he continue that upward trend on the green to compete.
- Adam Schenk (+240) – DraftKings
- Risk 1.00 to win 2.40 Units
Adam Schenk makes his fourth appearance at the John Deere Classic this year. In his three starts prior, he missed the cut in his debut (2018), finished T6 in 2019 and T4 in 2021. Last week at the Travelers Championship, Schenk missed the cut. Prior to that, he finished T26 or better in his last two starts.
When looking at his strokes gained across the board, his best category is putting. However, when we look at his past few starts, it’s been his worst. In his last three tournaments he’s gained strokes in every category besides putting. He’s lost strokes on the green in two of his last three events. When he finished T6 in 2019, he also lost strokes on the green but in 2021 he gained 1.84 strokes. Given this recent play and course history, I think he has a great shot of finishing inside the top-20.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
- Tyler Duncan (+180) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.80 Units
Outside of last years finish, Tyler Duncan has played very well at TPC Deere Run. He made his debut back in 2018 and finished T12. In 2019, he finished T26 and last year he missed the cut. He’s playing much better golf this year with five top-20 finishes in twenty-one starts. Last year, he only had two top-20 finishes in thirty-three starts. He’s also made the cut in three of his last four starts.
Tyler Duncan ranks inside the top-100 in every strokes gained category besides one, putting (162). However, he’s been putting much better as of late gaining strokes on the green in two of his last three starts.
- Chase Seiffert (+220) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 2.20 Units
Chase Seiffert made his debut at the John Deere Classic last year and would go on to finish T28. Last year he had missed the cut in his two previous tournaments. This year, he enters the event in slightly better form. We last saw him at the U.S. Open where he missed the cut but prior to that finished T28 at the RBC Canadian Open. In his thirteen starts on Tour this season he’s made the cut in eight of those events including 4 top-25 finishes.
When looking at strokes gained categories, he ranks 36th in SG: Approach and 57th in SG: T2G. His main weaknesses are his play off the tee and putting. He’s not long off the tee but he makes up for it with his accuracy. Putting continues to be an issue as he’s lost strokes on the green in each of his last four starts. Last year at TPC Deere Run he only lost a quarter of stroke with the flat stick. He’s a longshot for a reason this week but with the course history and his recent form he should be able to sneak in the top-40.
Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the John Deere Classic: 4.82 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
