Hello Friends, and welcome to the best week of the year, the Masters. Before we have even teed off, the storylines have already started. Like everyone who follows golf, we’ve been on Tiger watch for the past week or so. Given all of the information, and it looks like he’s a go this week.
Bryson continues his chaos tour and is fresh off a Dude Perfect video that set golf twitter a blaze. He looks to also be competing this week after stating in an interview he “can’t go all out” and was only around 80% healthy. Since returning from an injury he hasn’t looked great. He’s coming off a terrible performance at the Valero Texas Open where he missed the cut.
In the past nine weeks were up +28.28 Units. So while I’m fighting every urge in my body to over expose myself this week in terms of units, it will be a fairly normal card. Instead of the usual 3-4 units I risk every week, it will be around 5 this week given it’s a major tournament.
I breakdown the first major of the year and offer some picks for who I think will put on the green jacket. Let’s get started.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: April 7th, 2022- April 10th, 2022
- Location: Augusta, Georgia, United States
- Course: Augusta National Golf Club
- Course Type: Georgia/ Southeast
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,510 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 91 Players | Top 50 and Ties after 36 Holes
- Greens: Bentgrass
- Fairways: Ryegrass
- Rough: Ryegrass 1.38″
- Stimpmeter: 14.0 ft. (Very Fast)
- Purse: $11,500,000 / Winner $2,070,000
- FedEx Cup Points: 600
- Bunkers: 44
- Water Hazards: – (In-Play on 5 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 6,486 sq. ft.
- Scoring Average:
- 2021: 73.06 (+1.06), Rank 7 of 51
- 2020: 71.75 (-0.25), Rank 13 of 42
- 2019: 71.87 (-0.13), Rank 16 of 49
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Course Architect: Dr Alister MacKenzie & Bobby Jones (1933)
- Comparable Courses:
- Round 1: Thursday, April 7th, 2022
- ESPN – 3:00 PM – 7:30 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, April 8th, 2022
- ESPN – 3:00 PM – 7:30 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, April 9th, 2022
- CBS – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, April 10th, 2022
- CBS – 2:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Thursday: AM Thunderstorms 64 F, 14 mp/h WSW, 63% Humidity, 80% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Mostly Sunny/ Wind 55 F, 22 mp/h W, 41% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Mostly Sunny 52 F, 14 mp/h W, 43% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Sunny 57 F, 8 mp/h WNW, 40% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The Masters Tournament, also known as the Masters, is the first of four major championships in professional golf. The event was founded in 1934, 88 years ago. Not only is it an official money event for the PGA Tour but, also for the DP Tour (Euro Tour) and Japan Golf Tour.
Starting in 1949, the tradition of the green jacket was born. Along with the prize money and prestige, every champion becomes an honorary member of Augusta. The green jacket is only allowed to be removed from the Augusta National grounds by the reigning champion.
In addition to the green jacket, there are several awards presented to players who perform exceptional feats during the tournament. The player who has the daily lowest score receives a crystal vase, while players who score a hole-in-one or a double eagle win a large crystal bowl. For each eagle a player makes, they receive a pair of crystal goblets.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Augusta National is one of the most consistent courses on the PGA Tour but, there are two changes this year. Holes No. 11 and No. 15 have been slightly modified adding some additional difficulty. Both tee boxes have been pushed back along with the recontouring of the fairways on those holes. While this isn’t a major change to the course layout, it does make players club up on both holes, making those approach shots more difficult.
As it stands with the recent modifications Augusta National measures just over 7,500 yards. Distance off the tee is crucial this week especially with the Par 4’s. 90% of the Par 4’s measure 440 yards or longer this week. As we place an emphasis on distance, we can neglect accuracy off the tee a bit, as Augusta has some of the widest fairways on Tour.
The greens are extremely difficult given the complexity and speed. On the stimpmeter they measure 14.0 which ranks near the fastest greens players will face on Tour. This is where course history plays a major factor.
Scorecard Source: John Haslbauer
For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Driving Distance
- Par 4 Birdie or Better
- Course History
The Field/ Odds:
Jon Rahm headlines the field at 11-1 on most books but, you can find him as high as 14-1 on FanDuel and as low as 9-1 on DraftKings. He’s been an absolute Top 10 Machine at Augusta finishing inside that number in all four of his most recent appearances. He has yet to win an event on the Tour this season and recently lost his World No 1 Ranking to Scottie Scheffler.
Behind Rahm is Justin Thomas who’s currently listed anywhere from 12-1 to 14-1. JT is another guy who has yet to win an event on the PGA Tour this year. He’s finished 3rd twice and will be looking to capture his first green jacket in front of his mentor, Tiger. JT’s best finish at the Masters came back in 2020 where he finished 4th.
Next up is Cameron Smith, who has won two events on the PGA Tour this season. Earlier this year he won the Sentry Tournament of Champions and not so long ago he won THE PLAYERS Championship. He’s been on an absolute tear this season and is currently listed at 16-1 on most books. In his five appearances at the Masters, he has finished inside the Top 10 in three of them. In his past two starts at Augusta, he finished 2nd in 2020 and 10th in 2021.
Speaking of hot players, Scottie Scheffler has won three of his last five starts after going winless in his first 72 starts. So far this year he has won the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play. Scheffler has only played in the Masters twice finishing 19th in 2020 and 26th in 2021. As it stands he’s listed at 16-1 on most major books. If you’re looking to back him this week I would check out FanDuel who has him at 17-1.
Dustin Johnson is next up on the board and currently listed around 16/17-1. DJ is another guy who hasn’t won an event this year. However, he his coming off his best finish of the year at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play. Dustin did win the Master’s in 2020 so the course history is there. Despite the win two years ago, he missed the cut in 2021 at Augusta.
Other players who are listed at 20-1 or below include Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth, and Collin Morikawa. Out of those players, Spieth is the only one to have won a green jacket before. Brooks was close finishing 2nd in 2019 but as we all know, Tiger captured the title that year. Hovland and Morikawa have both only played at Augusta twice. Hovland’s first appearance here was back in 2019 when he was the top amateur in the event finishing 32nd.
Also, it wouldn’t be a Master’s article if I didn’t mention Tiger who’s looking to capture his sixth Masters. He’s currently listed at 50-1.
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2021: Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
- Price: 45-1
- 2020: Dustin Johnson (-20)
- Price: 9-1
- 2019: Tiger Woods (-13)
- Price: 16-1
- 2018: Patrick Reed (-15)
- Price: 55-1
- 2017: Sergio Garcia (-9)
- Price: 45-1
Picks (Outright):
- Justin Thomas (+1400) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units
I’m pretty sure everyone is on Justin Thomas this week. He’s probably the most tipped guy this week besides maybe Brooks. JT hasn’t had a great start to the year by any means failing to win a tournament. His best finishes of the year were at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba and the Valspar Championship where he finished 3rd. Thomas has yet to miss the cut this year in nine starts. In addition to that, he has yet to miss the cut in his six appearances at Augusta. Speaking of Augusta, Thomas has finished inside the top 40 in every start at the Masters. His best finish at the Masters was back in 2020 where he finished 4th.
Despite failing to win this year, JT ranks very highly in several key categories this week. He’s 14th in SG: OFF, 5th in SG: APP, 35th in SG: ATG, 2nd in SG: T2G, and 3rd in SG: TOT. Thomas is one of the longer hitters off the tee ranking 16th in Driving Distance. While the additional distance should put him in shorter approach situations, he has shown he can take advantage of those scenarios ranking 6th in GIR %. In terms of scoring Thomas ranks inside the top 10 in Par 3, Par 4, and Par 5 Scoring. He also leads the Tour in Birdie or Better Percentage.
I’m sure everyone will have a different view point on if Tiger at the Masters positively or negatively affects JT. For me it’s a positive, we heard about JT hanging out at Augusta with Tiger and Charlie earlier this week on the range. Tiger’s been one of Thomas’ biggest mentors so with him there I think it only provides additional confidence for him capturing his first green jacket.
- Patrick Cantlay (+2500) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Cantlay won the 2021 FedEx Cup Playoffs and has had a disappointing season so far, failing to capture a win. His best finish of the 2022 season came back in February where he finished 2nd at the WM Phoenix Open. Despite not finding the winners circle, he does have four Top 25’s in 7 events played. In his last event, the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play, he finished T26.
Patrick Cantlay has an interesting track record at the Masters. Last year he missed the cut but prior to that, he finished 17th in 2020 and 9th in 2019 before missing the cut again in 2018. When you look at key stats for this event, Cantlay ranks very high in most of them. He’s one of the longer players off the tee ranking 48th in Driving Distance. In addition to that he ranks inside the top 30 in SG: OTT, SG: ATG, SG: Putting, SG:T2G, and SG: Total. The one area concern is his approach play which is a crucial stat this week. That being said, we’ve seen when he does gain strokes on approach, which he did at the WM Phoenix Open, he has a chance at winning.
In terms of scoring he also ranks very highly in several key categories as well. He’s 1st in Par 5 Scoring Average, 6th in Par 4 Scoring Average, and 3rd in Birdie of Better Percentage. As I mentioned before, I think he has a great shot here if his irons are on.
- Will Zalatoris (+3600) – Pointsbet
- Risk 0.23 to win 8.28 Units
Willy Z came out firing in his debut at the Masters last year finishing one stroke behind Matsuyama. He nearly became the first player since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 to win the Masters as a tournament rookie.
Zalatoris is another player I’m backing this week that has a ranks highly in SG: T2G. This year he actually ranks 1st in that category which has a strong correlation to success at Augusta. He’s great off the tee but does struggle around the green a bit which is a concern.
This year Zalatoris has yet to capture a win but has been playing well. His best finish of the year came at the Farmers Insurance Open where he took 2nd. He has yet to miss a cut in his last seven tournaments and has four top 10’s during that stretch. Also, he hasn’t finished outside the top 40 in those seven events so he really is playing some solid golf.
As we look back a previous Master’s Champions, Spieth and DJ both finished 2nd the year prior to them winning so I can easily see Will Zalatoris following that trend this year.
- Shane Lowry (+5500) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Dare I say it? My favorite bet of the week? I really like Shane Lowry this week to capture his first Masters. He enters the event in pretty good form finishing inside the top 20 in three of his last four starts. His best finish of the year actually started that run where he took 2nd at the Honda Classic and honestly, should have won that event if it wasn’t for brutal weather conditions. However, I don’t feel too bad for him as we cashed Sepp Straka at 125-1.
Off the tee Lowry isn’t one of the longest players on Tour ranking 91st in Driving Distance. That being said, he ranked very highly in adjusted driving distance at the Valspar which is an encouraging sign. Shane ranks 50th in SG: OTT, 11th in SG: APP, 17th in SG: Putting, 26th in SG: T2G, and 9th in SG: TOT. His play around the green is definitely a concern this week as it does correlate to success here but in his last three events he’s been much better in that area.
Lowry struggled at Augusta in his first few starts missing the cut in three of his first four appearances here. In the following two years, he’s played much better finished 25th in 2020 and 21st in 2021. Given the way Lowry has been striking the ball lately and his trend at Augusta, I think he has a real good shot.
- Luke List (+15000) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.06 to win 9.00 Units
This was a late add for sure from me. I was put onto List by Coach, @NorthForker12 on Twitter as a possible play this week. Luke List is a resident in Augusta, Georgia so he’ll be able to enjoy the comfort of his own home this week. The last time he played at Augusta National was back in 2005 when he won the low amateur.
Earlier this season Luke List captured his first PGA Tour victory at the Farmers Insurance Open. Since then he has struggled a bit only cracking the top 40 in one of his last five stroke play events. Despite a poor track record coming into this event, List remains one of the best players on Tour in terms of SG: T2G ranking 3rd. While he’s great off the tee, he’s also solid in terms of approach ranking 25th in strokes gained and around the green ranking 17th in strokes gained. His weakness is his putting but as I’ve mentioned before we’ve seen some historically bad putters win the Masters before.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.34 Units
Picks (Top 10):
- Jon Rahm (+120) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Rahm has finished inside the Top 10 in all four of his previous starts at the Masters. He recently lost his world number 1 ranking and has been so close to winning an event this year. I honestly, wouldn’t be shocked if this was the week he captured his first green jacket. He ranks well in every key category and even if his putting isn’t great this week, which it hasn’t been all year, I think he still has a very good shot to finish Top 10.
Picks (Top 20):
- Daniel Berger (+140) – Pointsbet
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Let’s start with the glaring red flag, Berger missed the cut at the Masters last year. He didn’t play in 2019 or 2022 but finished 10th in 2016, 27th in 2017, and 32nd in 2018. Berger also should have won the Honda Classic after having the largest 54-hole lead in tournament history. Again, not going to complain as we cashed Sepp Straka at 125-1.
Now that all of the negatives are out of the way, let’s look at the positives. In his six starts this season, Berger has finished inside the Top 20 in five of them excluding the match play event. While he hasn’t won this year, he’s been an absolute Top 20 machine.
Berger ranks inside the top 45 in all six of the strokes gained categories headlined by 4th in SG:TOT. He’s not particularly long off the tee but is one of the most accurate players on Tour. His approach game is extremely solid along with his short game which makes him a great fit for this course. Given his form this year, I think he finally breaks through at Augusta and places inside the Top 20.
- Joaquin Niemann (+200) – DraftKings
- Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
If you read this far you’ll notice that Riviera is a course comp to Augusta National where Joaquin Niemann won the Genesis Invitational earlier this year. He’s been one of the best young players on Tour this year. Nieman has the distance off the tee and is one of the best approach players on tour. His short game hasn’t been too bad either ranking 6th in SG: ATG. While he isn’t a great putter at all, we’ve seen that when he does gain strokes putting he has success. In his last four starts he hasn’t been bad putting wise gaining strokes in two of those events and barely losing strokes on the green in the other two.
Last year at Augusta Niemann finished 40th but wasn’t nearly in as good as form. He’s finished T22 or better in three of his last four starts excluding that match play event. Niemann hasn’t played since then as he’s been preparing for this event so I expect him to be well rested and focused.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
- Christian Bezuidenhout (+140) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Let’s start with this Bez has finished Top 40 or better in his last five majors he’s competed in. In his last four starts on Tour he has finished Top 40 or better in two of them, which isn’t necessarily all that great when you look at it. However, in his last two starts at Augusta, 2020 and 2021, he has finished inside the Top 40 in both of them. He ranks well inside the top 100 in pretty much every major strokes gained category besides putting. To be more specific, he ranks in the top 50 in three of those six categories. He’s not a “bomber” off the tee by any means but he’s accurate and won’t get himself in trouble. I don’t think he can win this week but I do believe come Sunday he’ll be inside or around this number. This is also a value play as most other books have him at -110/-120 to finish T40 or better.
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the Masters: 5.34 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
