The Open Championship – Preview & Picks

682

We head to the birthplace of golf for the final major-championship. This year marks the 150th edition of the Open Championship. The Old Course at St. Andrews will host its 29th Open Championship making it the most of any course. This will be the first time since 2015 that the Open Championship will be held here.

In 2015, Zach Johnson defeated Louis Oosthuizen and Marc Leishman in a four-hole playoff to capture his second major title. Louis Oosthuizen had won his only major title here in 2010. Rory McIlroy was the defending champion and withdrew prior to the start that year due to an off-course ankle injury. He was the first defending champion absent from the Open in over sixty years.

As the tensions between the PGA Tour and LIV Tour continue to rise, those players who joined the new Saudi-backed Tour, will be allowed to play in the Open Championship. That list of players includes; Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Talor Gooch, Sergio Garcia, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed, Bryson DeChambeau, and Phil Mickelson.

 

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: July 14th, 2022 – June 17th, 2022
  • Location: St. Andrews, Fife, Scotland
  • Course: Old Course at St. Andrews
  • Course Type: Links
  • Par: 72 (2x 3’s / 14x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,313 yards
  • Format: 72 hole stroke play
  • Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 70 and Ties after 36 Holes
  • Greens: Fescue (50%), Brown Top Bentgrass (25%), Poa Annua (10%), Other (15%)
  • Fairways: Fescue and Bentgrass
  • Rough: Fescue, Bentgrass, Sweet Vernal Grass and Crested Dogstail 1.65″
  • Purse: $14,000,000/ $2,500,000 Winner
  • FedEx Cup Points: 600
  • Bunkers: 110
  • Water Hazards: 2 (In-Play on 2 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 13,608 sq. ft.

 

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

  • Course Architect: Old Tom Morris (1895)
  • Comparable Courses:
    • Royal St. George’s – 2021 Open Championship (Results)
    • Royal Portrush – 2019 Open Championship (Results)
    • Royal Birkdale – 2017 Open Championship (Results)

 

TV Information:

  • Round 1: Thursday, July 14th, 2022
    • Peacock – 1:30 AM – 4:00 AM ET
    • USA – 4:00 AM – 3:00 PM ET
  • Round 2: Friday, July 15th, 2022
    • Peacock – 1:30 AM – 4:00 AM ET
    • USA – 4:00 AM – 3:00 PM ET
  • Round 3: Saturday, July 16th, 2022
    • USA – 5:00 AM – 7:00 AM ET
    • NBC – 7:00 AM – 3:00 PM ET
  • Round 4: Sunday, July 17th, 2022
    • USA – 4:00 AM – 7:00 AM ET
    • NBC – 7:00 AM – 2:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

  • Thursday: AM Showers 58 F, 14 mp/h WNW, 81% Humidity, 70% Chance of Rain
  • Friday: Showers 58 F, 13 mp/h WNW, 64% Humidity, 60% Chance of Rain
  • Saturday: AM Showers 63 F, 11 mp/h SSW, 76% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain
  • Sunday: Mostly Cloudy 62 F, 10 mp/h SSW, 76% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Open Championship, also known as the British Open, is the oldest golf tournament in the world. It is the final major-championship of the year. The first Open Championship was held in 1860 at Prestwick Golf Club in Scotland. It was held over three twelve-hole rounds.

The venue is rotated between a select group of coastal links golf courses in the United Kingdom. A total of 14 courses have hosted this prestigious event with ten currently active as part of the rotation. Prestwick Golf Club, Musselburgh Links, Royal Cinque Ports Golf Club, and Price’s Golf Club are the four courses that have been removed.

This year, St. Andrew’s will host the Open Championship for the 29th time, more than any other course. It was first held here back in 1873 and starting in 1990 has hosted the event every five years. In 2020, St. Andrew’s was supposed to be the host course but due to the pandemic, the Open Championship was not played.

The Old Course at St. Andrew’s is considered the oldest golf course in the world. Originally, it was not known as the “Old Course” but, with the addition of the New Course in 1895, it got it’s current name.

In 1764, the course had 22 holes but was then changed to 18 as they decided the first four and last four holes were too short and should be combined into four total holes.

Around 1863, Old Tom Morris over-saw a renovation which produced the current 18-hole layout.

Until 2016, the purse was paid in pounds sterling but in 2017 it was changed to US dollars. This rendition of the Open Championship will have the largest purse ever offered. The overall purse has increased $2 million dollars to $14 million and the winners share is now $2.5 million from the $2 million that was offered in 2021. In addition to the prize money, the winner also receives the claret jug which is a tradition that was started in 1873.

Most tournament wins: 6, Harry Vardon (1896, 1898, 1899, 1903, 1911, 1914)

72-Hole Record: 264, Henrik Stenson (2016 at Royal Troon)

18-Hole Record: 62, Branden Grace (3rd round, 2017 at Royal Birkdale)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

The Old Course at St. Andrew’s is a Par 72 that plays 7,313 yards. It features a unique set up of two Par 3’s, fourteen Par 4’s, and two Par 5’s. While the yardage has increased from the last time we saw the Open Championship held here, the course itself players much shorter than the yardage posted. The wide fairways allow players to be aggressive on their first shot. However, accuracy off the tee shouldn’t be discounted as players must avoid those fairway pot bunkers.

St. Andrew’s is one of those iconic courses that’s truly hard to compare to any other course. The course has double-wide fairways and greens that make it a one-of-a-kind layout. As always, the forecast is the deciding factor for how low these players can go this week. It looks as through the wind won’t be too over bearing with rain only coming into play a few days.

For the two Par 3’s, they range between 175* and 200 yards. While Hole No. 11 is technically 174 yards, I’ve rounded up a yard to group them into the same category; Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards.

Hole 8 is the longest of the two Par 3’s playing 187 yards. It’s downhill with a shared green with Hole 10. Depending on the wind, the putting surface can be extremely difficult to hold.

Hole 11 is the other Par 3 on the Old Course that again varies in difficulty depending on the wind. Bunkers protect the greens with a steep run-off on the back.

Just like the Par 3’s, there’s only two Par 5’s on the Old Course. Hole 5 is the shortest of the two playing 570 yards. Given how the fairways are rolling, players should have a fairly short approach shot into the green. In order to succeed here, players must take advantage of this scoring opportunity.

Hole 14 measures over 600 yards and requires players to make a decision off the tee. Most will choose the left as it’s a safer player. However, if players decide to go right, they can be rewarded with an easier second shot.

Hole 18 is short Par 4 that is one of the most iconic holes in all of golf. Players will try to play it up the right side with their target varying depending on the wind. Once they hit their tee-shot they’ll cross the world famous Swilcan Bridge. This bridge was built over 700 years ago so shepherds could move their flock.  Now it’s most known as the backdrop for some of the most iconic pictures in golf.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 OUT
PAR 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 4 36
YARDAGE 375 452 398 480 570 414 371 187 352 3,599
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 OUT
PAR 4 3 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 36
YARDAGE 386 174 351 465 614 455 418 495 356 3,714

 

For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

  • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Driving Distance
  • Scrambling
  • Par 4 Scoring: 350-400 Yards
  • Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards
  • Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

Rory McIlroy (+1000), is the favorite this week for a reason. Since the Masters, where he finished 2nd, Rory has yet to finish outside the top-20 in his six other starts. During that span, he won the RBC Canadian Open, placed 8th at the PGA Championship and finished T5 at the U.S. Open. Rory has played in the Open Championship twelve times. He won in 2014 and has finished inside the top-5 in four other appearances.

Xander Schauffele (+1600), is the hottest golfer on Tour right now. He won the Travelers Championship then followed that up with a victory at the co-sanctioned Scottish Open. Xander won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans with Patrick Cantlay back in April and has yet to finish outside the top-20 in any start since then. He missed the Cut at the Masters in the first major-championship of the year but finished T13 at the PGA Championship and T14 at the U.S. Open. Xander’s best finish at an Open Championship was in 2018 when he was runner-up. In his three other appearances, he’s finished 20th, 41st, and 26th.

Jon Rahm (+1800), has fallen to 3rd in the OWGR after only winning one tournament this year (Mexico Open). In major-championships this year, Rahm finished T27 at the Masters T48 at the PGA Championship, and T12 at the U.S. Open. Rahm’s best finish in an Open Championship was last year when he finished T3. In his four other appearances, he’s missed the cut once and finished 59th ,44th , and 11th.

Jordan Spieth (+1800), seems to have found his form in the second half of the season. He won the RBC Heritage and followed that up with a 2nd place finish in the AT&T Byron Nelson. In his six starts since then, he’s made the cut in five of six and when making the cut, he’s finished inside the top-40 in those events. In major-championships this year, he missed the cut at the Masters, finished T34 at the PGA Championship and T37 in the U.S. Open. Spieth has played in The Open eight times in his career, winning in 2017 and finishing inside the top-10 in three additional times. One of those top-10 finishes was in 2015 when the Open Championship was last held at St. Andrew’s.

Scottie Scheffler (+1800), won the Masters earlier this year and finished T2 at the U.S. Open last month. Including his victory at Augusta, he’s won won tournaments this year. Coming into The Open, he missed the cut at the Scottish Open last week but finished T18 or better in his four starts prior. Last year Scottie Scheffler placed T8 in his Open debut.

Other previous Open Championship winners in the field; Collin Morikawa (21′), Shane Lowry (’19), Zach Johnson (’15), Phil Mickelson (’13), Louis Oosthuizen (’10), Tiger Woods (06′, 05′ 00′), and John Daly (95′).

Notable Withdraws: None

To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.

To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Trends/ Fun Facts:

  • All three of the major-championship winners this year have finished T8 or better in their previous major appearance:
    • M. Fitzpatrick (U.S. Open) – T5 at the PGA Championship
    • J. Thomas (PGA Championship) – T8 at the Masters
    • S. Scheffler (Masters) – T8 at the Open Championship (2021)
  • Dating back to 2013, the last eight Open Championship winners had an OWGR inside the top 25. Shane Lowry was the only outlier in 2019 (33rd).
  • Dating back to 2010, nine of the last eleven Open Championship winners had recorded a top-10 finish in this event. The two outliers were Louis Oosthuizen in 2010 and Collin Morikawa in 2021.
  • Only 15 golfers have won The Open and a second Major in the same year. The last player to do so was Rory McIlroy in 2015 when he won The Open along with the PGA Championship. Scottie Scheffler (Masters), Justin Thomas (PGA Championship), and Matthew Fitzpatrick (U.S. Open) are looking to join that club this week.
  • Xander Schauffele will look to win his third consecutive PGA Tour event this week. The last player to do so was Dustin Johnson back in 2017 (Genesis Open, WGC – Mexico, WGC- Dell Technologies Match Play).

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

  • 2021: Collin Morikawa (-15) – Royal St. George’s Golf Course
    • Price: 40-1
  • 2019: Shane Lowry (-15) – Royal Portrush Golf Club
    • Price: 70-1
  • 2018: Francesco Molinari (-8) – Carnoustie Championship Course
    • Price: 33-1
  • 2017: Jordan Spieth (-12) – Royal Birkdale Golf Club
    • Price: 16-1
  • 2016: Henrik Stenson (-20) – Royal Troon Golf Club
    • Price: 33-1
  • 2015: Zach Johnson (-15) – Old Course at St. Andrews
    • Price: 110-1

 

Picks (Outright):

  • Jordan Spieth (+1800) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.45 to win 8.10 Units

Spieth won the Open Championship back in 2017 and finished T4 in 2015 at St. Andrew’s. In terms of links players on Tour, he ranks near the top. In his eight Open Championship appearances, he has never finished worse than T44. Since his win at the RBC Heritage back in April, he’s been playing some great golf. In his seven Tour starts following that win, he has made the cut six times and finished inside the top-20 in four of those events. Last week at the Genesis Scottish Open, he placed T10. When looking at the path to success of past Open Championship winners, Spieth seems to be on it. His downside has always been his putting but he’s gained strokes in that category in four of his last five starts. In the lone event he lost strokes (U.S. Open), he only lost -0.12 strokes. Jordan seems to be back on the upswing and what better way to fully announce he’s back with a win at the birthplace of golf.

  • Justin Thomas (+2200) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

JT won the PGA Championship earlier this season defeating Will Zalatoris in a playoff. As we all saw it was Mito’s tournament to win but after a botched tee shot on 18, he played himself out of contention. Last week at the Genesis Scottish Open he struggled shooting 73-33 failing to make the cut. Prior to that, he finished T37 at the U.S. Open and 3rd at the RBC Canadian Open. In the past, he’s failed to record a top-10 finish at the Open Championship in his five appearances. His best finished was T11 in 2019 at Royal Portrush Golf Club. In terms of key stats this week, JT ranks very highly in most of those categories. While he hasn’t had great finishes in the past at Open Championships, I feel like he could finally break through this week given his play this year.

  • Patrick Cantlay (+2500) – BetMGM
    • Risk 0.33 to win 8.00 Units

Patrick Cantlay won the FedEx Cup Playoffs last year and has had a bit of a downturn this season. His only win this season was with Xander in the Zurich Classic. Cantlay lost to Jordan Spieth in a playoff at the RBC Heritage and finished solo second at the WM Phoenix Open so he’s been close a few other times. In terms of Open Championship history, he’s finished 12/41/MC in his three appearances. This season, Cantlay has struggled most with his approach play ranking 72nd in strokes gained. That being said, his irons have been much better as of late gaining strokes in three of the past four events in that category. His putting has been lights out gaining over a stroke in three of the past four events as well. Even if his approach play struggles, he ranks well around the green and in scrambling so it should make up for it. He finished T4 at the Genesis Scottish Open last week so I’m hoping he can ride that momentum into this week and win his first Open Championship.

  • Brooks Koepka (+5000) – DraftKings
    • Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

Brooks at 50-1 in a Major?? As everyone knows Brooks recently joined the LIV Tour and has not competed on the PGA Tour since the U.S. Open where he placed 55th. To be fair, Koepka hasn’t been playing some great golf as of late but as everyone knows, he does get up for the major-championships. In terms of Open Championship performances, Brooks has thrived in this event finishing 10/6/39/4/6 in his last five appearances. The 10th place finish was back in 2015 at St. Andrews. I know it’s a stretch given his form however it’s a hard number to pass up given his success at this major in the past.

Just Missed the List: Jon Rahm (18-1), Scottie Scheffler (18-1)

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.31 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (+100) – PointsBet
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

Matthew Fitzpatrick has been one of the hottest golfers on Tour lately. He captured his first career PGA Tour victory last month at the U.S. Open. In his last six starts, including the U.S. Open, he’s finished T2/T5/MC/T10/1/T6. He’s played in the Open several times before finishing 20th and 26th in the last two editions. Fitzpatrick ranks inside the top-25 in SG:OTT, SG:APP, SG:ATG, and SG:T2G. The lone outlier is SG: Putting where he ranks 35th. However, he’s gained strokes on the green in each of his last three starts.

  • Tony Finau (+210) – Caesars
    • Risk 1.00 to win 2.10 Units

Tony Finau has had success on links style courses in the past. In his five Open Championships he’s finished 18/27/9/3/15. He’s also been in great form as of late finishing T4/2/MC/T13 in his last four starts on Tour. Finau ranks very highly in most strokes gained categories besides putting. His play with the flat stick has been much better recently gaining strokes on the green in four of his last six tournaments. In his last Tour start at the Travelers, he lost 0.17 strokes on the green and still managed to finish T13.

Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

  • Webb Simpson (+180) – FanDuel
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.80 Units

Is Webb Simpson the most consistent player on Tour right now? No. He’s missed the cut in two of his last five starts, two of his last three actually if you’re looking for a more recent sample size. Despite that, in events he has made the cut he’s finished T20/T27/T13. If we look at his recent performances in Open Championship’s he’s far more consistent. Dating back to 2015, which was held at St. Andrew’s, Webb has finished 40/39/37/12/30/19. He plays well on Links style courses and ranks well in a few key categories this week. Simpson ranks inside the top-100 in every strokes gained category with his specialty being his iron and wedge play. He’s not a great putter but, has gained strokes in that category in three of his last five rounds. If he can make the cut, he should be able to finish inside the top-40.

  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+190) – FanDuel
    • Risk 1.00 to win 1.90 Units

Dating back to the Masters, Christiaan Bezuidenhout has made the cut in six of his last eight starts on Tour. In those six events, he’s finished inside the top-40 in five of them. He finished T2 at the John Deere Classic then followed that up with a T16 at the Genesis Scottish Open. Bezuidenhout has only played in two Open Championships missing the cut in 2019, and placing T53 last year. The major weakness in his game has been his play around-the-green but, he ranks 5th in scrambling which has been a key stat for success. One encouraging sign is that he gained strokes around-the-green last week so I’m hoping he can continue that upward trend this week. He’s not long off the tee however his accuracy makes up for it. His putting has also been great lately gaining over a stroke in each of the past two tournaments.

Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on The Open: 5.31 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.