The Open Championship – Preview & Picks

Congrats to all Rory McIlroy backers at the Genesis Scottish Open. It was great to see Rory rally Sunday down the stretch to capture his second win of the season.

Vincent Norrman (20-1) came through for us at the Barbasol Championship. It was great to hit our second outright in the past three weeks!

The fourth and final Major Championship of the season takes place this week, the Open. Let’s get into the storylines…

Royal Liverpool will host the Open Championship for its 13th time. The last time we saw this course was in 2014. Since then, the course has undergone a renovation so it’ll play slightly different this time around. Forty-two players in the field competed at the 2014 Open Championship.

The Open Championship Course History:

The last time this event was held at Royal Liverpool Golf Club was in 2014. Here are a few notable finishes from players in the field this year.

R. McIlroy: 1
R. Fowler: T2
A. Scott: T5
S. Lowry: T9
D. Johnson: T12
F. Molinari: T15

— Gator_Sports_Betting (@GatorBetting) July 16, 2023

Rory McIlroy is the current favorite this week and won the Open Championship the last time it was held at Royal Liverpool. With that victory, he joined Tiger Woods and Hack Nicklaus as the only players to win three of golf’s modern majors by the age of 25. He enters this week’s event in great form having captured his 24th career PGA Tour victory last week at the Genesis Scottish Open. It’ll be interesting to see if he can use that newfound momentum to win his first Major Championship since 2014.

Rickie Fowler finished runner-up at the Open Championship in 2014 the last time it was held at Hoylake. He also captured his first win since 2019 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic a few weeks ago. Rickie also came close to winning his first Major at the U.S. Open this year. He ended up finishing tied for fifth which was his best finish in a Major since the 2018 Masters.

Cameron Smith is the defending champion of this event having captured his first Major Championship at St. Andrews last year. He’s played well in the first three Majors of the year finishing T34 at the Masters, T9 at the PGA Championship, and T4 at the U.S. Open. Smith is also coming off a victory in his most recent start at LIV London. The last time a player won the Open in back-to-back years was Pádraig Harrington in 2007-2008.

Matthew Jordan, currently 200-1, has been a member at Hoylake since he was seven years old and punched his ticket to the 151st Open having come through Final Qualifying at West Lancashire Golf Club. He will hit the opening tee shot at the Open Championship on Thursday. Jordan plays on the Challenge Tour, which is the second-tier golf tour in Europe. He’s already won once on that Tour this season and enters this week’s event off two consecutive top-10 finishes.

There are also a few top players in the world that are looking for their first Major championship. Patrick Cantlay, current World No. 4, had his best finish at this event last year finishing T8. Viktor Hovland, current World No. 5, finished tied for fourth at last year’s Open Championship. He’s now finished inside the top 20 in each of his last four Major Championship appearances. Xander Schauffele, current World No. 6, has had several runner-up finishes in Major championships but has failed to break through yet. Max Homa, current World No. 8, is also looking for his first Major Championship. Last year at St. Andrew’s, he missed the cut. Those four players have combined for 25 PGA TOUR titles and have all won at least twice since the start of the 2021-22 season.

Lastly, there are sixteen players from the LIV Tour competing in this year’s Open Championship. Headlining the list of players include Brooks Koepka, the 2023 PGA Championship winner, and Cameron Smith, the defending Open Championship winner. Dustin Johnson is another player to mention as he finished runner-up at the 2011 Open Championship.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: July 20th, 2023 – July 23rd, 2023
• Location: Hoylake Wirral, England, United Kingdom
• Course: Royal Liverpool Golf Club (Hoylake)
• Course Type: Coastal Links
• Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,383 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Browntop Bentgrass with Fescue
• Fairways: Fescue
• Rough: Fescue/ Bentgrass/ Native 2-12″
• Bunkers: 84
• Water Hazard(s): 0 (In-Play on 0 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 6,458 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 10 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $16,500,000/ $3,000,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 600
• Field/ Cut: 156 Pros | Top 70 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2014: +2
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2014: 72.77 (+0.77), Rank 10 of 48

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, July 20th, 2023
  • Peacock – 1:30 AM – 4:00 AM ET
  • USA – 4:00 AM – 3:00 PM ET
  • Peacock – 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET
• Round 2: Friday, July 21st, 2023
  • Peacock – 1:30 AM – 4:00 AM ET
  • USA – 4:00 AM – 3:00 PM ET
  • Peacock – 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET
• Round 3: Saturday, July 22nd, 2023
  • USA – 5:00 AM – 7:00 AM ET
  • NBC – 7:00 AM – 3:00 PM ET
• Round 4: Sunday, July 23rd, 2023
  • USA – 4:00 AM – 7:00 AM ET
  • NBC – 7:00 AM – 2:00 PM ET

 

Online Information:

Various feeds available via theopen.com/watch

 

Weather:

• Thursday: AM Showers 62 F, 14 mp/h NW, 70% Humidity, 49% Chance of Rain
• Friday: AM Showers 62 F, 14 mp/h WNW, 71% Humidity, 45% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Light Rain 64 F, 15 mp/h S, 79% Humidity, 79% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Light Rain 66 F, 12 mp/h W, 80% Humidity, 75% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

Royal Liverpool Golf Club was founded in 1869 as a nine-hole course. It was built around the old grounds of the racecourse. References to the race track can still be found today with the names of the first and eighteenth holes, “Course” and “Stand”. The original saddling bell also still hangs in the clubhouse. The club is also referred to as Hoylake which is the name of the small town the course actually sits in. It received the “Royal” designation in 1871 due to the patronage of Prince Arthur the Duke of Connaught, one of Queen Victoria’s sons.

The Open has been held at Hoylake twelve times before. In addition to the Open, the course has also played host to seventeen British Amateur Championships, including the first one held in 1885. In 2012, Royal Liverpool held its first-ever Women’s British Open.

Several international matches have been held at Royal Liverpool including the inaugural match between England and Scotland (Home Internationals) in 1902 and the first match between Great Britain and the U.S. in 1921 (Walker Cup).

The last Walker Cup to held held at this course was in 2019 when the Americans defeated Great Britain and Ireland 15½ to 10½. One interesting name from Team Great Britain & Ireland is Alex Fitzpatrick, the younger brother of Matthew Fitzpatrick. Alex, who’s currently on the Challenge Tour, qualified for the Open Championship last week so he’ll be in the field. The last time we saw him on the PGA Tour was at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans when he and his brother teamed up and would go on to finish T4. This will be the first Major he’s ever competed in.

As I mentioned before, Royal Liverpool will not look the same as it did in 2014. The course has been lengthened out by roughly seventy yards and changed from a Par 72 to a Par 71. The design team of Mackenzie & Ebert, who also redesigned Royal Portrush, have reconfigured the course. The main addition is the new par 3 17th hole, “Little Eye”.  It’s only listed at 136 yards but should provide a challenge for players coming down the stretch as the green is only 3,800 sq. ft. compared to the average of 6,458 sq. ft. The hole runs along the coastline so it’s directly exposed to any wind coming off the Irish Sea.

The Open Championship Course History:

The last time this event was held at Royal Liverpool Golf Club was in 2014. Here are the changes in the scorecard from that year. pic.twitter.com/oPNpzxZrJx

— Gator_Sports_Betting (@GatorBetting) July 16, 2023

The Open Championship began in 1860 and is the oldest golf tournament in the world. It’s one of golf’s four Major Championships and is held in mid-July since 2019 after the PGA Championship was moved to May. The tournament was originally held at Prestwick Golf Club in Scotland. However, the venue is now rotated between several different courses in the United Kingdom. This year will be the 151st edition of the Open Championship.

The winner of the Open Championship will receive the Claret Jug which has been presented to the champion since 1873. The original trophy resides at St. Andrew’s while the winner receives a replica that they can have for a year. In addition to the trophy, the “Champion Golfer of the Year”, a title which has been used for the winning golfer since 1860, also receives a hefty payday. The current winner’s share is $3,000,000 which is one of the largest amounts of any tournament this season. Up until 2016, the purse was paid out in pounds but was changed to dollars in 2017 as it’s the most widely adopted currency for prize money in golf.

We haven’t had a playoff at this event since 2015 when Zach Johnson won but if several players are tied after 72 holes, a three-hole aggregate playoff is held. If players are still tied, the format becomes sudden death.

• Most Victories:
  • 6, Harry Vardon (1896, 1898, 1899, 1903, 1911, 1914)
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 264, Henrik Stenson (2016 at Royal Troon)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 62, Branden Grace (3rd round, 2017 at Royal Birkdale)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

The past two winners at Royal Liverpool had winning scores of -17 and -18. Despite those low numbers, the course still had a scoring average over Par the last time it was held here. In 2014, only six holes had a scoring average under par which included all four of the Par 5’s. Its difficulty will be heavily based on the weather conditions. The course should also play tougher this year due to the recent renovation.

In terms of length, Royal Liverpool is relatively long measuring 7,383 yards. It ranks 15th out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 23rd of 46, with the average fairway width being 32.0 yards. The average green size is roughly 6,458 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 84 bunkers which ranks as the 13th most out of 46 courses.

The four Par 3’s, No. 6, No. 9, No. 13, & No. 17, range between 136 yards and 218 yards. At the 2014 Open Championship, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average above Par.

No. 6 ‘New’, 201 yards, Par 3: “The first of four wonderful par-3s at Hoylake, the 6th hole plays slightly uphill to an elevated green. The front of the green has a severe run-off, with cavernous bunkers awaiting at the foot of the hill both front and left. Players who miss right will have their short game equally tested with a bank on that side and a green that then runs away from them. Middle of the green is a safe bet from the tee, but accuracy is paramount. However, in benign conditions and with a favourable pin location, the world’s best will see this hole as another chance to improve upon their score.”

No. 9 ‘Dowie’, 218 yards, Par 3: A fun par-3 as players reach the end of the front nine. The prevailing wind on ‘Dowie’ is usually right to left and slightly down, which presents problems. At 200 yards with a long green that runs diagonally from left to right at an angle, holding the ball up against the wind and landing it short is somewhat of a challenge. If the ground is firm, players will need to land the ball considerably short of the green to attack any sort of front pins, with two front bunkers making the entrance narrow. Run-off areas back left and a bunker to the left also can cause issues with back pin locations, particularly as the green sits at a slight left to right angle from the tee. The green also has a large amount of movement and holing short putts for birdie, or more likely par, will be difficult.”

No. 13 ‘Alps’, 194 yards, Par 3: “The favourite hole of many members at Royal Liverpool, the par-3 13th is a stunning hole that employs optical illusions to only add to the difficulty. From the tee it appears as if there is no room to the left, with only far-right pins fully visible, and the undulation of mounds 100 yards away blocking the view, leaving the impression that left is a no-go zone. In some ways that is true, with rough hillocks and difficult lies awaiting down that side, but there is considerably more room than first appears. The green runs diagonally from right to left, with a bail-out zone short and right. Anything pin-high right, however, can find significant trouble with a bunker to the right and a gnarly hill, from where an up and down is extremely difficult, that comes into play more than would be expected.”

No. 17 ‘Little Eye’, 136 yards, Par 3: “The new hole on the course is one everybody will be talking about come July. At just 140 or so yards, ‘Little Eye’, Hoylake’s newest hole, is a simply stunning creation, with an infinity green on a par-3 that plays directly out towards the ocean and Wales, which is just a few miles away. The green is raised above the player significantly. The sea of bunkers and huge fall-off areas to all sides, including all the way to the green, provide a striking scene and mean it is absolutely essential to hit the green, as any miss will leave a devilishly difficult up and down. Once on the green, the undulations are considerable and making putts is not easy, nor is finding the right location with the tee shot. The views are stunning and the setting is dramatic. The leader of The Open in July will be very happy to walk off the 17th with a three, particularly if the wind is blowing.”

Five of the eleven Par 4’s range between 450 – 500 yards. No. 11 is the shortest listed at 392 yards with the longest being No. 10, playing 507 yards.

No. 10 ‘Far’, 507 yards, Par 4: “Traditionally a par-5 at Hoylake and at The Open, the 10th will play as a par-4 in 2023, and suddenly becomes one of the most difficult holes on the course as players begin their back nine. The drive is fairly innocuous, however, placement in the wrong position can leave difficult lies for the second shot, which will probably be with a mid-to-long iron at best. A large mound in the middle of the fairway can also obstruct views to the green, which is slightly raised to the fairway. The green has a very steep run-off area to the left, and an even deeper bunker to the right, with the approach now more mentally trying with the hole playing as a par-4. Taking four at ‘Far’ will always be a good score, particularly under Open Championship conditions in 2023.”

No. 11 ‘Punch Bowl’, 392 yards, Par 4: “Although not the start of the back nine, the 11th marks the point where the player heads for home, as the 10th green and 11th tee mark the far point of the course from the clubhouse. The 11th runs back parallel to the 10th hole, and offers a beautiful view from the tee of the ocean to the left. The tee shot itself plays up to the top of a hill, and players will hope to get over that brow if conditions are favourable, leaving them with a short approach to a green that sits just below them. The approach is fairly narrow and tight, so the shorter the club in the players’ hands the better. Depending on pin placement, players can be aggressive in trying to make a birdie, but trouble awaits on both sides, with bunkers flanking the entrance to the green and difficult and steep swales to the left making for a tough up and down.”

No. 16 ‘Lake’, 461 yards, Par 4: “A long hole that can play even longer than its usual yardage, many players will lay back short of fairway bunkers on both sides and leave themselves well over 200 yards into the green. The green suits a running shot and welcomes low ball flights that enter through the mouth of the green, with bunkers left and right. However, a cross bunker 50 yards short can come into play if entering the green from the wrong angle. The surface itself is very big, and requires deft touch to navigate successfully. Into a stiff breeze, this is a very strong par-4 and requires the utmost of respect from the players.”

The three Par 5’s are No. 5, No. 15, & No. 18. In 2014, all four of the Par 5’s had a scoring average under par.

No. 5 ‘Long’, 520 yards, Par 5: “The 5th is arguably the best birdie chance on the course. The shortest of the three par-5s at Hoylake, a good drive on this hole that moves slightly off the far right bunker is ideal, leaving a medium-to-long approach into a well-guarded green. Players who enjoy moving their ball from right to left will be licking their chops on this hole, as both the drive and second shot require the shape to reach their intended targets, with the green set at a right to left angle and two bunkers guarding the entrance. Shots played up to the right may find their way down a hill to the green, but those that stray too far right potentially leave tricky chips, and any shot directly at the pin may find trouble either short or long. Much will depend on how the conditions play, but in any case ‘Long’ is a great birdie chance.”

No. 15 ‘Field’, 620 yards, Par 5: “The 15th hole, previously the 16th hole in past Opens, has been significantly lengthened since Rory McIlroy’s triumph in 2014, which included an iconic eagle on day three. In 2023 the hole will play over 600 yards, and if the wind is into the players’ faces, the hole can become quite intimidating in its length, particularly from the tee. With the prevailing wind, however, players can take a significant portion of length away from the hole by attempting to carry over a portion of bunkers to the right. Finding a bunker makes par a tough ask, but hitting the fairway certainly brings birdie into the equation. A lay-up is almost more difficult in some instances than going for the green, with a tight portion of fairway in the ideal wedge spot and a bunker lying in wait to the left. If they can reach, most players will have a go at the green, or play an aggressive lay-up to the right 60 yards short of the green. A number of bunkers line the left of the green and entry from right is the ideal angle, again suiting a player who can shape the ball right to left if having a crack from the fairway. The green is fairly difficult to putt on, with subtle slopes proving difficult at times. Nevertheless, this still provides a good birdie chance, barring a stiff headwind, as the players prepare to play the last three holes.”

No. 18 ‘Dun’, 609 yards, Par 5: “After navigating the 17th hole, the leader of The Open come Sunday 23 July will face a long walk toward the 18th tee, pondering the shot coming up the whole time, and it is no easy one. The 18th hole at Royal Liverpool, the members’ 16th, has seen two incredible Champions since its introduction as the closing hole in The Open’s routing. Tiger Woods claimed an emotional victory on the final green in 2006, while McIlroy secured his first and only Open to date in 2014 to a huge ovation around the surface. With significant changes in 2023, the hole will almost certainly produce even more drama this time round, and the potential Champion will have to produce a nerveless tee shot to help them on the way to victory. A remarkably intimidating opening stroke now awaits, as the Championship tee has been moved back around 50 yards and significantly further right, while the out of bounds down the right-hand side has ominously been moved 20 yards further left. The fairway now appears just a handful of yards wide from the tee, particularly with a necessary carry of 240 yards to reach the fairway and dangerous bunkers down the left. A brave tee shot is required, however, if players have any ambitions of a closing eagle, as with the additional length, the out of bounds is more in play for the second shot too as the hole curves to the right. On the approach, numerous bunkers surround the green, with the three on the left particularly likely to come into play for those bailing out to the left. This is a simply fantastic finishing hole that could produce double bogeys as easily as eagles.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 17

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass/Fescue)
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Driving Accuracy
• Birdies or Better
• Bogey Avoidance
• Scrambling
• Par 3 Scoring: 200 – 225 (x2)
• Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 (x5)
• Par 5 Scoring: 600 – 650 (x2)
• Major Championship History
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 156 players competing in this year’s Open Championship. Nineteen of the world’s top-twenty players are in the field with the only exemption being Will Zalatoris who’s injured. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Rory McIlroy (+750) returns to Royal Liverpool golf club where he won the 2014 Open Championship. He’s also coming off a win at the Genesis Scottish Open. Including that victory, McIlroy has not finished outside the top 10 in each of his last six events.

Scottie Scheffler (+900) will play in his third Open Championship having finished T8 in 2021 and T21 in 2022. He already has two victories on the PGA Tour this season (THE PLAYERS and WM Phoenix Open). In his last seven starts on the PGA Tour, Scheffler hasn’t finished outside the top 5. Dating back to the World Wide Technology Championship, he has not finished worse than T12 (19 starts).

Jon Rahm (+1100) has won four tournaments this year, including the Masters. He struggled in his last tournament missing the cut at the Travelers Championship. Before that, he finished T10 at the U.S. Open and T16 at the Memorial Tournament. His best finish in an Open Championship was back in 2021 at Royal St George’s where he finished T3.

Brooks Koepka (+1400) won the PGA Championship in his last start in Major Championship. As of late, he finished 17th at LIV London and 3rd at LIV Valderrama. Before that, he finished tied for 17th at the U.S. Open. In his last six starts at the Open Championship, he’s finished inside the top 10 four times. Brooks played in the 2104 Open Championship the last time it was held at Royal Liverpool where he finished T67.

Cameron Smith (+1600) is the defending champion of the Open Championship and enters off a win at LIV London. Before that, he finished 12th at LIV Valderrama and 4th at the U.S. Open. In his only other Major Championship finishes this season, he finished tied for ninth at the PGA Championship and tied for thirty-fourth at the Masters Tournament.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Cameron Smith (’22), Collin Morikawa (’21), Shane Lowry (’19), Francesco Molinari (’18), Jordan Spieth (’17), Henrik Stenson (’16), Zach Johnson (’15), Rory McIlroy (’14), Ernie Els (’12, ’02), Darren Clarke (’11), Louis Oosthuizen (’10), Stewart Cink (’09), Pádraig Harrington (’08, ’07)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • None

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

	St. Andrews	Royal St. George’s	Royal Portrush	Carnoustie	Royal Birkdale	Royal Liverpool
	Field Rating: 871	Field Rating: 863	Field Rating: 898	Field Rating: 902	Field Rating: 893	Field Rating: 902
	2022	2021	2019	2018	2017	2014
Viktor Hovland	T4	T12
Scottie Scheffler	T21	T8
Robert MacIntyre	T34	T8	T6
Jordan Spieth	T8	2	T20	T9	1	T36
Tony Finau	T28	T15	3	T9	T27
Xander Schauffele	T15	T26	T41	T2	T20

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

	St. Andrews	Royal St. George’s	Royal Portrush	Carnoustie	Royal Birkdale	Royal Liverpool
	Field Rating: 871	Field Rating: 863	Field Rating: 898	Field Rating: 902	Field Rating: 893	Field Rating: 902
	2022	2021	2019	2018	2017	2014
Guido Migliozzi	MC	MC
Jorge Campillo		MC	MC	MC
Adri Arnaus	T76		MC
Connor Syme			MC		MC
Oliver Wilson			MC	MC
Rikuya Hoshino	MC	MC
Alexander Bjork	MC		MC	MC	MC
Sungjae Im	T81		MC
Kurt Kitayama	T72	MC	MC
Gary Woodland	MC	MC	MC	T67	T70	T39
Takumi Kanaya	MC	MC	MC

 

Trends/ Fun Facts:

• Nine of the last 10 winners had finished inside the top 20 in one of the Majors earlier in the season
• Eight of the last 10 winners had posted a top 10 in the event prior
• Eight of the last 10 winners had won an event earlier in the season
• Eight of the last 10 winners had posted at least one top 10 in one of their three previous starts
• Six of the last 10 winners were ranked inside the top 10 in the OWGR
• Six of the last 10 winners had previously won a Major
• Six of the last 10 winners were from outside of the United States
• Five of the last 10 winners were 35 or older

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Cameron Smith (-20) – St. Andrews
  • Price: 28-1
• 2021: Collin Morikawa (-15) – Royal St. George’s Golf Course
  • Price: 40-1
• 2019: Shane Lowry (-15) – Royal Portrush Golf Club
  • Price: 70-1
• 2018: Francesco Molinari (-8) – Carnoustie Championship Course
  • Price: 33-1
• 2017: Jordan Spieth (-12) – Royal Birkdale Golf Club
  • Price: 16-1
• 2014: Rory McIlroy (-17) – Royal Liverpool
  • Price: 14-1

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2022: Cameron Smith
  • T10 – Genesis Scottish Open (EUR/ PGA)
  • MC – U.S. Open (PGA)
  • T48 – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
  • T13 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
  • T13 – PGA Championship (PGA)

• 2021: Collin Morikawa
  • T71 – adrdn Scottish Open (EUR)
  • T4 – U.S. Open (PGA)
  • 2 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
  • T14 – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
  • T8 – PGA Championship (PGA)

• 2019: Shane Lowry
  • T34 – Dubai Duty-Free Irish Open (EUR)
  • T28 – U.S. Open (PGA)
  • T2 – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
  • T8 – PGA Championship (PGA)
  • T3 – RBC Heritage (PGA)

• 2018: Francesco Molinari
  • T2 – John Deere Classic (PGA)
  • 1 – Quicken Loans National (PGA)
  • T25 – U.S. Open (PGA)
  • 2 – Italian Open (EUR)
  • 2 – Italian Open (EUR)

• 2017: Jordan Spieth
  • 1 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
  • T35 – U.S. Open (PGA)
  • T13 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
  • T2 – DEAN & DELUCA Invitational (PGA)
  • MC – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)

• 2014: Rory McIlroy
  • T14 – Aberdeen Asset Management Scottish Open (EUR)
  • MC –  Irish Open (EUR)
  • T23 – U.S. Open (PGA)
  • T15 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
  • 1 – BMW PGA Championship (EUR)

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Majors that year):

• 2022: Cameron Smith
  • MC – U.S. Open
  • T13 – PGA Championship
  • T3 – The Masters
• 2021: Collin Morikawa
  • T4 – U.S. Open
  • T8 – PGA Championship
  • T18 – The Masters
• 2019: Shane Lowry
  • T28 – U.S. Open
  • T8 – PGA Championship
  • MC – The Masters
• 2018: Francesco Molinari
  • T25 – U.S. Open
  • T20 – The Masters
• 2017: Jordan Spieth
  • T35 – U.S. Open
  • T11 – The Masters

 

Picks (Outrights):

[I went a little heavy on outrights this week compared to other events this season. However, the more I went through the model, there was no way I could leave Scheffler off the card this week.]

• Scottie Scheffler (+750) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.10 to win 8.25 Units

• Cam Smith (+2000) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.40 to win 8.00 Units

• Brooks Koepka (+2200) – PointsBet
  • Risk 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.87 Units 

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Tommy Fleetwood (+110) – PointsBet
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units

• Viktor Hovland (+115) – FanDuel
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units

• Tom Kim (+170) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units

[Just Missed Collin Morikawa (+115 – BetMGM)]

Total Risk on Top 20: 3.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Denny McCarthy (+115) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units

• Brian Harman (+120) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units

Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the Open Championship: 6.95 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.