THE PLAYERS Championship – Preview & Picks

What an exciting finish at Bay Hill as Kurt Kitayama wins the Arnold Palmer Invitational to capture his first PGA Tour victory. With that victory, he is now exempt into all of the 2023 majors along with the remaining PGA Tour schedule.

The “fifth major” takes place this week as we head to TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS Championship. No play has ever won this event in back-to-back years which is a trend that will continue this season as defending champion Cam Smith is no longer on the PGA Tour. It should be a great week as this course will certainly challenge some of the world’s best.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: March 9th, 2023 – March 12th, 2023
• Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, United States
• Course: TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)
• Course Type: Florida/ Southeast
• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,275 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed .100” (all grass areas are on Bermuda base)
• Fairways: Champion fine rye overseed .275”
• Rough: Champion fine rye overseed 3.5”
• Bunkers: 88
• Water Hazard(s): 17 (In-Play on 17 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12.5 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $25,000,000 /$4,500,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 600
• Field/ Cut: 144 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: +2
  • 2021: E
  • 2019: -1
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 72.62 (+0.62), Rank 12 of 50
  • 2021: 72.42 (+0.42), Rank 16 of 51
  • 2019: 71.51 (-0.49), Rank 23 of 49

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, March 9th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 12:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, March 10th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 12:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, March 11th, 2023
  • NBC – 1:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, March 12th, 2023
  • NBC – 1:00 PM – 6:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Partly Cloudy 72 F, 11 mp/h ENE, 58% Humidity, 9% Chance of Rain
• Friday: PM Showers 79 F, 12 mp/h SSW, 65% Humidity, 49% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Mostly Sunny 77 F, 12 mp/h NW, 46% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Partly Cloudy 75 F, 9 mp/h N, 60% Humidity, 8% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

THE PLAYERS Championship was first held in 1974 and was conceived by then PGA Tour commissioner, Deane Beman. It was held at Atlanta Country Club in Atlanta, Georgia, and took place in early September. Over the next two years, it was held at different locations including the Colonial Country Club in 1975 and at the Inverrary Country Club in 1976. From 1977 to 1982 the event was held at Sawgrass Country Club which is very close to its current location, TPC Sawgrass. Since 1982, the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass has hosted this event.

From 2007-2017 THE PLAYERS Championship took place in May. However, in 2018, the event returned to March where it has been held since.

Given its newly elevated status on the PGA Tour, the purse was increased to 25 million dollars this year, which is $5 million more than was offered in 2022. With the additional purse money, the winner’s share is also increased to $4,500,000 from last year’s $3,600,000.

Unlike other tournaments that feature a sudden-death playoff format, THE PLAYERS has a three-hole aggregate format that started in 2014. This tournament has only gone to a playoff once since this format change and that was back in 2015 when Rickie Fowler won.

• Most Tournament Wins:
  • 3, Jack Nicklaus (1974, 1976, 1978)
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 264, Greg Norman (1994)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 63, Fred Couples (Round 3, 1992), Greg Norman (Round 1, 1994), Roberto Castro (Round 1, 2013), Martin Kaymer (Round 1, 2014); Jason Day (Round 1, 2016); Colt Knost (Round 2, 2016); Webb Simpson (Round 2, 2018); Brooks Koepka (Round 4, 2018); Dustin Johnson (Round 4, 2022)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

TPC Sawgrass is one of the toughest courses players will face on the Tour outside of the Majors. In both of the past two editions of the PLAYERS, the scoring average has been over par. In 2022, only two holes (No. 6 & No. 12) were played under par outside of the four par 5’s.

In terms of length, PGA National is not overly long measuring 7,275 yards. It ranks roughly around the Tour average, ranking slightly shorter actually. The fairways are on the narrower side, with the average fairway width being 28.0 yards. This ranks as the 8th narrowest course on the Tour so Strokes Gained Off the Tee will be a key category this week. The average green size is roughly 5,500 square feet which is on the smaller side of things when compared to the other courses on Tour.

The course’s main defense is predominately the water hazards that come into play on nearly every hole (17/18). While the course is relatively short, these water hazards can force layups on certain holes. The course is also very susceptible to winds, which can become a major factor on approach shots.

No. 17, is the signature hole on the Stadium course and what TPC Sawgrass is known for. This is the shortest Par 3 players will face this week but the most difficult by far playing 0.267 strokes over par last year. Players will tee off over a lake onto an ‘island’ green that’s protected by one small bunker on the right side. The prevailing winds coming off the body of water can create chaos leading to an exciting finish.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 17

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
• Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x6)
• Par 5 Scoring: 500 – 550 Yards (x2)
• Proximity: 75 – 100 Yards
• Scrambling
• Bogey Avoidance
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 144 players in the field at this year’s PLAYERS Championship. Forty-nine of the world’s top fifty players will be in the field with the lone exclusion being last year’s champion, Cameron Smith. Here are the current favorites in this week’s field:

• Jon Rahm (+900), has won three tournaments this season which is the most of any player. He’s coming off his worst finish of the year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he finished T39. Rahm lost 1.39 strokes off the tee which is the most in that category since 2019 when he lost 2.08 strokes at the Charles Schwab Challenge. In his five appearances at TPC Sawgrass, Rahm has only finished inside the top 10 once.
• Rory McIlroy (+900), is coming off a T2 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he gained strokes in every major category. In the only other PGA Tour event he gained strokes on the green this season, he won (CJ Cup). McIlroy has competed in every PLAYERS Championship since 2009. He won the 2019 edition and has three other top-20 finishes during that span.
• Scottie Scheffler (+1100), has only finished outside the top-12 once in his nine starts this season. Last week, he finished T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational losing strokes on the green. Scheffler doesn’t have great course history at TPC Sawgrass as he missed the cut in his debut (2021) and finished T55 last year.
• Patrick Cantlay (+1600), has finished 3rd and T4 in his last two starts on Tour. His best finish of the year was back in October at the Shriners Children’s Open when he finished T2. In his last three appearances at TPC Sawgrass, Cantlay has missed the cut.
• Justin Thomas (+1800), won the PLAYERS Championship back in 2021 and finished T33 last year. In his seven starts on Tour this season, he has finished inside the top-25 six times. His best finish of the season was last month at the WM Phoenix Open (4th).
• Max Homa (+2000), has won two events this season, the Farmers Insurance Open and Fortinet Championship. In each of his nine starts on Tour, Homa has never finished outside the top 40. He missed the cut in his debut at TPC Sawgrass (2021) and finished T13 last year.

 

• Previous Winners in the field:
  • Justin Thomas (’21), Rory McIlroy (’19), Webb Simpson (’18), Si Woo Kim (’17), Jason Day (’16), Rickie Fowler (’15), Matt Kuchar (’12), Adam Scott (’04)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • None

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

• Justin Thomas: T24/ T3/ T75/ T11/ T35/ 1/ T33
• Corey Conners: T41/ 7/ T26
• Doug Ghim: T29/ T6
• Will Zalatoris: 21/ T26
• Tommy Fleetwood: T41/ T7/ T5/ MC/ T22
• Seamus Power: T35/ T33
• Tom Hoge: T72/ T30/ T22/ T33

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.

• Harris English: T64/ T33/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Robert Streb: T30/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Patrick Rodgers: MC/ MC/ MC/ T77/ T65/ MC
• Beau Hossler: T46/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Danny Willett: MC/ MC/ WD/ MC/ MC
• Andrew Putnam: MC/ MC/ MC
• Cameron Davis: MC/ MC
• Wyndham Clark: MC/ MC
• Matthew NeSmith: MC/ MC
• Mark Hubbard: MC/ MC
• Adam Schenk: MC/ MC
• Trey Mullinax: MC/ MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Cameron Smith (-13)
  • Price: 33-1
• 2021: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • Price: 20-1
• 2020: Cancelled after the first round due to the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Price: N/A
• 2019: Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • Price: 14-1
• 2018: Webb Simpson (-18)
  • Price: 100-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Patrick Cantlay (+1800) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.45 to win 8.10 Units

• Justin Thomas (+2000) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.40 to win 8.00 Units

• Jason Day (+3300) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.10 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Tyrrell Hatton (+165) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.65 Units

• Keegan Bradley (+210) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 2.10 Units

• Keith Mitchell (+230) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 2.30 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 3.00 Units

 

Total Risk on THE PLAYERS Championship: 4.10 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.