The Rocket Mortgage Classic – Preview & Picks

Congrats to all Keegan Bradley backers at last week’s Travelers Championship. He now has two wins this season and is up to 7th in the Team USA Ryder Cup qualification standings.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

Tony Finau is the defending champion of this event but comes into the Rocket Mortgage in poor form. To be fair, he has won two events this season the Cadence Bank Houston Open & the Mexico Open. However, last year he had won the 3M Open the week before winning the Rocket Mortgage so it’ll be interesting to see how one of the current favorites fairs this week.

Rickie Fowler continues his comeback tour but is still looking for his first win since the 2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open. He let the U.S. Open through three rounds but ultimately fell short on Sunday. He’s in great form and has some decent course history here so maybe he can finally break through this week.

The Rocket Mortgage Classic has been moved up in this year’s PGA schedule. Last year, it took place towards the end of July but this year, it has been moved up roughly a month. In doing so it has garnered its strongest field yet making this week more exciting.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: June 29th, 2023 – July 2nd, 2023
• Location: Detroit, Michigan, United States
• Course: Detroit Golf Club
• Course Type: Classical
• Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,370 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Bentgrass / Poa annua .100”
• Fairways: Bentgrass / Poa annua .375”
• Rough: Bluegrass mix 4’
• Bunkers: 87
• Water Hazard(s): 1 (In-Play on 1 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,150 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter:  10.5 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $8,800,000/ $1,584,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 156 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: -3
  • 2021: -3
  • 2020: -5
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 70.40 (-1.60), Rank 38 of 50
  • 2021: 70.55 (-1.45), Rank 40 of 51
  • 2020: 70.05 (-1.95), Rank 38 of 41

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, June 29th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 2: Friday, June 30th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 3: Saturday, July 1st, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
• Round 4: Sunday, July 2nd, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
  • CBS – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Partly Cloudy 84 F, 10 mp/h SSE, 52% Humidity, 11% Chance of Rain
• Friday: PM Thunderstorms 79 F, 9 mp/h SSE, 66% Humidity, 41% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Scattered Thunderstorms 82 F, 7 mp/h WNW, 70% Humidity, 58% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Partly Cloudy 84 F, 8 mp/h NNW, 62% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Rocket Mortgage Classic was founded in 2019 replacing the Quicken Loans National. It’s been held at Detriot Golf Club in Detroit, Michigan every year. Last year, the Rocket Mortgage Classic was the second last event on the FedExCup Regular Season schedule. However, this year it has been moved up in the schedule which has attracted a much stronger field than in previous editions.

Detroit Golf Club was founded in 1899 and originally only had six holes. In 1900, the club added three additional holes making it a 9-hole course. Thirteen years later, Donal Ross was brought in to design two 18-hole courses. Before playing host to the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the club had only hosted two prior major tournaments including the 1911 Western Amateur and 1992 U.S Mid-Amateur.

• 72-Hole Record:
  • 262, Tony Finau (2022)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 63, Nate Lashley (2019, first round), J.T. Poston (2019, second round), Davis Thompson (2021, first round), Cameron Young (2022, second round), Tom Kim (2022, fourth round)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

The Rocket Mortgage Classic utilizes 17 holes from the North Course and one hole from the South Course. Holes No. 8 and 9 of the North Course will severe as the first two holes of this week’s event. The lone hole from the South Course (No. 1) will play as the third hole. From there, holes 2-7 will play as No. 4-9. The traditional back nine for the North Course will play as holes 10-18.

Vandals significantly damaged the greens on Nos. 11 and 12 in April, but the PGA TOUR’s agronomy department along with the storied Oakmont Country Club stepped in to help. Some sod was brought in from Oakmont to help with the repairs.

Detroit Golf Club is one of the easier courses players will face on Tour this season. Each of the past four editions of this event has had a scoring average below par.  In 2022, only seven holes had a scoring average over par which included three of the four Par 3’s.

In terms of length, Detroit Golf Club is average measuring 7,370 yards. It ranks 23rd out of 46 courses in length. The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 15th of 46, with the average fairway width being 34.6 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,150 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 87 bunkers which ranks as the 12th most out of 46 courses.

The four Par 3’s, No. 5, No. 9, No. 11, & No. 15, range between 160 yards and 233 yards. At the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic, only one of the Par 3’s had a scoring average below Par (No. 5).

No. 5, 167 yards, Par 3: “This uphill hole plays slightly longer than the yardage. A back hole location can produce difficult putting conditions as a spine runs through that area of the green. This hole is recreated on the Ross Memorial course at Boyne Highlands in Harbor Springs, Michigan.”

No. 11, 233 yards, Par 3: “Birdies are hard to come by on the longest of the four par three holes on the north. Guarded by two bunkers, this green looks relatively simple from the tee. However, closer inspection will reveal a front bowl and several places to hide the hole location.”

Four of the ten Par 4’s range between 350 – 400 yards. No. 8 is the shortest listed at 372 yards with the longest being No. 12, playing 489 yards.

No. 8, 372 yards, Par 4: “Driver may not be the play off of the tee for everyone. Several fairway bunkers and out-of-bound left may produce a layup tee ball short of any trouble. The second short normally play about a half of club more as the green is slightly uphill.”

No. 12, 489 yards, Par 4: “Par is a good score on this long and difficult par four. A tee shot that avoids the trees left and a fairway bunker in the driving zone on the right side will set the player up with a long to mid iron into the elevated green. A false front, on the left side of the green complex, will cause an approach shot coming up short to roll away. The Club’s original clubhouse was built behind and left of this green.”

No. 18, 455 yards, Par 4: “This great par four finishing hole has a diagonal penalty area that will dictate strategy from tee to green. With fairway bunkers left and right, a tee shot in the fairway will be most important, leaving long to mid-iron into the green. However, once on the green, the fun has just begun. Players will be faced with possibly the most difficult putting surface on the course. The 1992 U.S.G.A. Mid-AmateurChampionship was decided by a four-putt on this green.”

The four Par 5’s are No. 4, No. 7, No. 14, & No. 17. In 2022, all of these holes had a scoring average under par.

No. 4, 635 yards, Par 5: “Long hitters will have a go at it in hopes of reaching this green in two on this long, narrow par five. Players not able to reach the green in two will need to avoid a left-hand side cross bunker inside 100 yards. An accurate approach shot to the small, contoured green is required in hopes of securing a birdie.”

No. 17, 577 yards, Par 5: “Bunker placement throughout this hole requires sound strategy on the longest of the four par fives on the North. A generous opening into the green will allow balls to be run onto this undulating putting surface.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 6-8, 18

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Driving Distance
• Birdies or Better
• Bogey Avoidance
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa annua)
• Par 3 Scoring: 150 – 175 (x2)
• Par 4 Scoring: 350 – 400 (x4)
• Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 (x4)
• Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 (x3)
• Proximity: 75 – 100 Yards
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 156 players competing in this year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. Nine of the world’s top-thirty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

• Tony Finau (+1200) is the defending champion of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. In his only other appearance at this event, he finished T53 in 2020. Finau has two victories this season winning the Cadence Bank Houston Open and Mexico Open. He’s been in poor form as of late finishing T45 (Travelers Championship), T32 (U.S. Open), missing the cut in the Charles Schwab Challenge, and T72 (PGA Championship).
• Rickie Fowler (+1400) has revitalized his career this season but has not won since the 2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open. He has seven top-10 finishes this year, the most he’s had on TOUR in one season since 2016-17. In his last four events, his worst finish was tied for 13th which was last week at the Travelers Championship. He’s played in this event four times making the cut in three of those appearances.
• Justin Thomas (+1600) has struggled this season failing to win a single event. His putting has held him back and he’s lost strokes on the green in seven of his last nine starts. Last week at the Travelers he appeared to have found his game finishing tied for 9th. However, before that, he missed the cut at both the U.S. Open and the Memorial Tournament. This will be the first time that he’s competed at Detroit Golf Club.
• Hideki Matsuyama (+1600) withdrew from the Rocket Mortgage Classic before the second round in 2021 after testing positive for COVID-19. He did not play in this event last year but finished T21 in 2020 and T13 in 2019. Matsuyama has yet to win this year but has been in better form as of late. In his last nine starts on the PGA Tour, he has made every cut and has not finished worse than T32 (U.S. Open). His putting has been the main aspect of his game holding him back and he’s lost strokes on the green in five of his last eight starts.
• Max Homa (+1800) has already won twice on the PGA Tour (Fortinent Championship & Farmers Insurance Open) but both of those victories came earlier in the season. He’s been struggling as of late missing the cut in his last two starts. This will be his fourth appearance at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he’s finished T24, T25, and T42 in his three prior appearances here.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Tony Finau (’22), Cam Davis (’21), Nate Lashley (’19)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • Andrew Putnam (Undisclosed), Patrick Rodgers (Undisclosed), Hayden Buckley (Undisclosed)

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

	2022	2021	2020	2019
Matt Wallace	T10		T12
Troy Merritt	T14	T2	T8	MC
Chris Kirk	T17	T12	T21
J.J. Spaun	T8	T32	T30	T13
Tony Finau	1		T53
Lanto Griffin		T25	T21
Henrik Norlander	T30	T38	T12
Max Homa	T24	T25		T42

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

	2022	2021	2020	2019
Brian Harman			MC	MC
Martin Laird		MC		MC
Chez Reavie		MC		MC
Robby Shelton IV		MC	MC
Ryan Moore	MC			MC
Joseph Bramlett	MC	MC	MC
Kelly Kraft	MC			MC
Satoshi Kokaira	MC	MC		MC
Adam Long		MC		MC
William Gordon		MC	MC
Martin Trainer	MC	MC	MC	MC
C.T. Pan	MC		MC
James Hahn	MC	MC	MC
Ben Taylor		MC	MC
Scott Piercy	MC	MC
Justin Suh		MC		MC
Jason Dufner		MC	MC	MC
Kramer Hickok	MC	T58	MC	MC
Robert Streb	MC	T38	MC	MC
Sam Ryder	T24	MC	MC	MC
Kevin Tway	MC	T14	MC	MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Tony Finau (-26)
  • Price: 14-1
• 2021: Cam Davis (-18)
  • Price: 150-1
• 2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-23)
  • Price: 7-1
• 2019: Nate Lashley (-25)
  • Price: 250-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Rickie Fowler (+1400) – PointsBet
  • Risk 0.58 to win 8.12 Units

• Byeong-Hun An (+5000) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

• Alex Smalley (+5500) – PointsBet
  • Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units

• Thomas Detry (+8000) – BetRivers
  • Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units

• Justin Suh (+8000) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.09 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Sungjae Im (+115) – DraftKings/ Pointsbet
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units

• Ludvig Aberg (+230) – PointsBet
  • Risk 1.00 to win 2.30 Units

Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 30):

• Austin Eckroat (+125) -DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

Total Risk on Top 30: 1.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Luke List (+150) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units

Total Risk on the Rocket Mortgage Classic: 5.09 Units 

 

Late Addition Tournament Matchups:

• Byeong Huh An (-130) vs Mark Hubbard

 

• Alex Smalley (-120) vs Chrustiaan Bezuidenhout

Smalley gained strokes in every category at the Travelers last week (comp course), his distance and accuracy also improved (good drives gained). He struggles around the green but that doesn’t matter given he’s gained strokes on approach in each of his last six events. He’s also gained strokes off the tee in five of his last six. His putting is sub-par but gained stokes on this green and comp greens in the past. Last year he finished T16 coming into this event in much worse form.

Bez is coming off a MC at the Travelers and T38 at the Memorial. He’s struggled off the tee which is crucial this week losing strokes in three of his last five events. His approach game has also been on a decline during that period as well. He did finish T2 last year here but his putting was much better than it is this year.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.