The RSM Classic – Preview & Picks

Congrats to everyone who had Tony Finau last week at the Cadence Bank Houston Open! He’s been red hot as of late winning three of his last seven starts.

We’re now onto the RSM Classic at Sea Island Resort. This week’s event features both courses on the property, the Seaside, and Plantation course. There are not a lot of big names teeing it up this week but despite that, it should be an exciting tournament given the previous winners.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: November 17th, 2022- November 20th, 2022
• Location: Simons Island, Georgia, United States
• Course: Sea Island Resort (Plantation and Seaside Courses)
• Course Type: Coastal
• Courses:
  • Plantation Course:
    • Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
    • Length: 7,060 yards
    • Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .100″
    • Fairways: Platinum Paspalum .400″
    • Rough: TifEagle bermudagrass 1.5″
    • Stimpmeter: 11- 11.5 feet
    • Bunkers: 81
    • Water Hazards: 10 (In-Play on 10 Holes)
    • Average Green Size: 6,100 sq. ft.
  • Seaside Course:
    • Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
    • Length: 7,005 yards
    • Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .090″
    • Fairways: TifEagle bermudagrass/ Platinum Paspalum .400″
    • Rough: TifEagle bermudagrass 2″
    • Stimpmeter: 12.5 feet
    • Bunkers: 47
    • Water Hazards: 14 (In-Play on 13 Holes)
    • Average Green Size: 7,200 sq. ft.

• Format: 72 hole stroke play
• Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 and ties after 36 Holes
• Purse/ Winner: $8,100,000 /$1,458,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Scoring Average:
  • Plantation Course:
    • 2021: 70.69 (-1.31), Rank 36 of 50
    • 2020: 71.34 (-0.66), Rank 25 of 51
  • Seaside Course:
    • 2021: 68.97 (-1.03), Rank 33 of 50
    • 2020: 68.69 (-1.31), Rank 40 of 51
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2021: -4
  • 2020: -3
  • 2019: -4

 

Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:

• Plantation Course:
  • Course Architect: Walter Travis Colt and Allison (1928)
  • Renovation: Davis Love III (2019)
• Seaside Course:
  • Course Architect: Harry Colt and Charles Alison (1929)
  • Renovations: Tom Fazio (1999)

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

 

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, November 17th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, November 18th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, November 19th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, November 20th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Cloudy 49 F, 12 mp/h NW, 46% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Sunny 53 F, 9 mp/h N, 48% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Partly Cloudy 55 F, 12 mp/h N, 56% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Cloudy 54F, 12 mp/h NNW, 49% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The RSM Classic, previously known as the McGladrey Classic until 2015, has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour since its debut in 2010. In 2015, the tournament also switched to the dual course setup utilizing both the Seaside and Plantation Courses at Sea Island. Between 2015 and 2019 this was the final PGA Tour event on the calendar year but was switched to the fall there after. This year will also feature it’s largest purse of $8.1 Million an increase from the 2021 purse of $7.2 Million.

This event has also been dominated by Americans, winning every year except for 2016 when Mackenzie Hughes defeated four others in a playoff.

 

72-Hole Record: 260, Kevin Kisner (2015), Talor Gooch (2021)

18-Hole Record: 60, Tommy Gainey (4th Rd, 2012), Sebastian Munoz (1st Rd, 2021), Tyler McCumber (4th Rd, 2021)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecards:

• Plantation Course: Thursday or Friday Round

Players this week will only see the Plantation course once this week, either on Thursday or Friday so I’m not all too concerned about this course. The Plantation Course is also not equipped with Shot Link data which limits are SG research. This course is more of Parkland style that features tree lined fairways and water coming into play on a majority of the holes. The Plantation Course features four Par 5’s, unlike Seaside, that provide additional scoring opportunities. While distance and power haven’t really been a factor in the recent tournaments here, it will play a factor on those four holes. Davis Love III recently renovated this course changing the contouring on the greens making them more difficult.

 

• Seaside Course: Thursday or Friday Round, Saturday and Sunday Rounds

The Seaside course is the less challenging of the two courses that players will face this week. As you can tell by the scorecard, the course is one of the shortest on the PGA Tour. Most courses on Tour use length to try and prevent the event from becoming a “birdie fest” however, Seaside relies on the wind as it’s main defense. Seaside is a coastal/links style golf course that features wide fairways and greens. The tournament is won on approach shots and putting. Most of the greens are elevated with large runoff areas which emphasizes Greens in Regulation % as a key stat this week. The bermudagrass putting surface will also provide some challenge for players who aren’t particularly used to the grainy surface. Capitalizing on birdie opportunities will be placed at a premium this week based on the previous winners scores.

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Stokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
• Par 4 Scoring: 400- 450 Yards
• Proximity: 125- 150 Yards
• Scrambling
• Driving Accuracy
• Birdie or Better %
• Greens in Regulation %
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

156 Players will compete in the RSM Classic this week. It’s an extremely weak field especially after Tony Finau withdrew on Tuesday.

• Brian Harman (+1800), is coming off a 2nd place finish at the WWT Championship. In the two other events he’s played this season he’s finished T23 and T15. His best finish at the RSM Classic was back in 2017 when he finished T4.
• Seamus Power (+2200), has been in great form as of late winning the Butterfield Bermuda Championship and finishing T3 at the WWT Championship. He’s played in this event five times before and missed the cut in three of those appearances. However, last year he finished T4 here.
• Jason Day (+2200), has revitalized his game finishing inside the top 20 in four of his five starts this season. He’s played here three times with his best finish coming in 2020. Last year at Sea Island Resort he missed the cut.
• Tom Hoge (+2200), missed the cut at the WWT Championship in his last start. However, in the four other events he’s played in this season he’s finished T12/ T4/ T9/ T13.
• Taylor Montgomery (+2500), will make his tournament debut this week. In his first five starts of the season he’s finished 3/ T9/ T15/ T13/ T10/ 57.

 

• Previous Winners in the field: Robert Streb (’14,’20), Tyler Duncan (’19) Austin Cook (’17), Mackenzie Hughes (’16), Kevin Kisner (’15), Chris Kirk (’13), Tommy Gainey (’12)

 

• Notable Withdraws: Si Woo Kim, Brendan Steele, Erik van Rooyen, Mark Hubbard, Tony Finau, William McGirt, Ryan Moore

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

• Webb Simpson: T12/ 2/ T7/ T41/ T36/ WD/ 3/ 2/ T37/ T8
• Matthew NeSmith: T14/ T15/ T29
• Zach Johnson: T12/ MC/ T49/ T16/ MC/ T75/ MC/ T8/ T7/ T61/ T6/ T16
• John Huh: T48/ T9/ T27/ T37/ MC/ T12/ T12
• Kevin Kisner: T26/ MC/ T20/ T4/ 1/ MC/ T4/ T7/ MC/ 2/ MC

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.

• Sam Ryder: T61/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Kevin Tway: MC/ T71/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Martin Trainer: MC/ MC/ MC
• Joseph Bramlett: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Tim Weinhart: MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Adam Svensson: MC/ MC/ MC
• JT Poston: MC/ MC/ MC/ T14/ MC/ MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2021: Talor Gooch (-22)
  • Price: 40-1
• 2020: Ryan Streb (-19)
  • Price: 350-1
• 2019: Tyler Duncan (-19)
  • Price: 200-1
• 2018: Charles Howell (-19)
  • Price: 50-1
• 2017: Austin Cook (-21)
  • Price: 90-1

 

Picks (Outright):

• Matthew NeSmith (+3300) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

• Mackenzie Hughes (+3300) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

• J.J. Spaun (+5500) – Bet365
  • Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units

• Nick Hardy (+6000) – Caesars
  • Risk 0.14 to win 8.40 Units

• William Gordon (+6000) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.14 to win 8.40 Units

• Chris Kirk (+7500) – Caesars
  • Risk 0.11 to win 8.25 Units

• Davis Thompson (+10000) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.08 to win 8.00 Units

Just Missed: Denny McCarthy, Keith Mitchell, Beau Hossler, Alex Smalley, Greyson Sigg

Total Risk on Outright Placements: 1.12 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Tom Hoge (+125) – FanDuel
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

• Jason Day (+130) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Taylor Moore (+140) – FanDuel
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
• Zach Johnson (+200) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units

Just Missed: Wyndham Clark, Webb Simpson, Aaron Rai, Luke List

Total Risk on Top 40 Placements: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the RSM Classic: 5.12 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.