The RSM Classic – Preview & Picks

Congrats to all Camilo Villegas backers last week at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship! We failed to hit an outright last week but did cash both of our top 20 placements, Alex Noren (+100) and Taylor Pendrith (+100).

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

The RSM Classic is the final event of the inaugural FedExCup Fall, a group of seven tournaments played after the TOUR Championship that finalizes eligibility for the 2024 PGA TOUR Season.

The top 125 on the FedExCup Fall standings after this week will secure 2024 PGA TOUR exempt membership, earning spots in each Full-Field Event plus THE PLAYERS Championship. Those who finish Nos. 51-60 will get into two Signature Events in 2024 – The Genesis Invitational and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – via The Next 10. To see what finish each player needs to break into The Next 10 at the RSM Classic, you can check out this article.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: November 16th, 2022- November 19th, 2022
• Location: St. Simons Island, Georgia, United States
• Course: Sea Island Resort (Plantation and Seaside Courses)
• Course Type: Coastal
• Courses:
  • Plantation Course:
    • Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
    • Length: 7,060 yards
    • Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .100″
    • Fairways: Perennial rye overseed
    • Rough: TifEagle bermudagrass 1.5″
    • Stimpmeter: 11- 11.5 feet
    • Bunkers: 81
    • Water Hazards: 10 (In-Play on 10 Holes)
    • Average Green Size: 6,100 sq. ft.
  • Seaside Course:
    • Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
    • Length: 7,005 yards
    • Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .090″
    • Fairways: Perennial rye overseed
    • Rough: Perennial rye overseed
    • Stimpmeter: 12.5 feet
    • Bunkers: 47
    • Water Hazards: 14 (In-Play on 13 Holes)
    • Average Green Size: 7,200 sq. ft.

• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 and ties after 36 Holes
• Playoff Format: Sudden Death | 18, 18, 17, 18, 17, 18
• Purse/ Winner: $8,400,000 /$1,512,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Scoring Average:
  • Plantation Course:
    • 2022: 69.76 (-2.24), Rank 45 of 50
    • 2021: 70.69 (-1.31), Rank 36 of 50
    • 2020: 71.34 (-0.66), Rank 25 of 51
  • Seaside Course:
    • 2022: 68.99 (-1.01), Rank 33 of 50
    • 2021: 68.97 (-1.03), Rank 33 of 50
    • 2020: 68.69 (-1.31), Rank 40 of 51
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: -6
  • 2021: -4
  • 2020: -3

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

 

Plantation Course At Sea Island Resort:

 

Seaside Course At Sea Island Resort:

• Comparable Yardage (7,005 Yards):
  • Pebble Beach Golf Links – 6,972 Yards – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
  • Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – 7,041 Yards – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
  • Spyglass Hill Golf Course – 7,041 Yards – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

• Comparable Greens TifEagle bermudagrass .090”):
  • Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge – TifEagle bermudagrass .110” – Arnold Palmer Invitational
  • Plantation Course at Kapalua – TifEagle bermudagrass .115” – Sentry Tournament of Champions
  • PGA National Resort (The Champion) – TifEagle bermudagrass .115” – The Honda Classic

• Comparable Average Green Size (7,200 sq. ft.):
  • PGA WEST (Nicklaus Tournament Course) – 7,000 sq. ft. – The American Express
  • PGA National Resort (The Champion) – 7,000 sq. ft. – The Honda Classic

 

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, November 16th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
• Round 2: Friday, November 17th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
• Round 3: Saturday, November 18th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET
• Round 4: Sunday, November 19th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Showers 73 F, 16 mp/h ENE, 84% Humidity, 65% Chance of Rain
• Friday: AM Showers 74 F, 15 mp/h NNE, 83% Humidity, 35% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Mostly Sunny 76 F, 9 mp/h NW, 71% Humidity, 13% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Mostly Sunny 70 F, 10 mp/h N, 62% Humidity, 4% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The RSM Classic, previously known as the McGladrey Classic until 2015, has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour since its debut in 2010. In 2015, the tournament also switched to the dual course setup utilizing both the Seaside and Plantation Courses at Sea Island. Between 2015 and 2019 this was the final PGA Tour event in the calendar year but was switched to the fall thereafter.

• 72-Hole Record:
  • 260 – Kevin Kisner (2015), Talor Gooch (2021)
• 18-Hole Record :
  • 60 – Tommy Gainey (4th round, 2012), Sebastian Munoz (1st round, 2021), Tyler McCumber (4th round, 2021)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

• Plantation Course: Thursday or Friday Round

Players this week will only see the Plantation course once this week, either on Thursday or Friday so I’m not all too concerned about this course. The Plantation Course is also not equipped with Shot Link data which limits any SG research. This course is more of Parkland style and features tree-lined fairways and water coming into play on a majority of the holes. The Plantation Course features four Par 5’s, unlike Seaside, that provide additional scoring opportunities. While distance and power haven’t been a factor in the recent tournaments here, it will play a factor on those four holes. Davis Love III recently renovated this course changing the contouring on the greens making them more difficult.

The Plantation Course at Seas Island Golf Club is a Par 72 that plays 7,060 yards. The layout features four Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and four Par 5’s.

The four Par 3’s range between 156 yards and 219 yards. At the 2022 RSM Classic, only one Par 3 (No. 7), had a scoring average under par.

No. 7, 156 yards, Par 3: “The island par three green, the largest green on the course, makes an inviting target. Hole locations on the large undulating green can make hitting the green only the first test to overcome for par.”

Six of the ten Par 4’s range between 350 – 400 yards. No. 10 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 327 yards with the longest being No. 9, at 481 yards.

No. 10, 327 yards, Par 4: “This short, drive-able par four provides the golfer with numerous options. The boldest player may try and go for the green, but the danger lurks with the left edge of the green guarded by the water. More conservative players face a lay-up decision to avoid the “principal’s nose” bunkers. Once negotiated, the players will find a small, gently undulating green surface.”

No. 13, 437 yards, Par 4: “With a lake on the left and out of bounds on the right, this may be the most difficult driving hole on the course. Once finding the fairway, the player will need to negotiate the large bunker guarding the right two-thirds of the green protecting this “bowl” green.

The four Par 5’s are No. 4, No. 8, No. 14, and No. 18. Only one of the Par 5’s is listed over 600 yards (No. 4). At the 2022 RSM Classic, only one Par 5 (No. 14), had a scoring average over par.

No. 8, 529 yards, Par 5: “This par five will be reachable depending on the wind. With bunkers on both sides of the fairway, players hitting good drives have the opportunity to reach the green but must negotiate a lake running the right side of the fairway. A back right hole location provides a tough shot even with a short iron.”

No. 18, 560 yards, Par 5: “This reachable par five finishing hole can provide a great finish end to the round. The water off the tee will only affect the longest hitters, but all players will have to deal with the water eventually. Players hitting to this green with second or third shots will face water lining the left side and bunkers protecting the right side. This birdie hole can give some chances at eagle.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 7, 18

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

• Seaside Course: Thursday or Friday Round, Saturday and Sunday Rounds

The Seaside course is the least challenging of the two courses that players will face this week. As you can tell by the scorecard, the course is one of the shortest on the PGA Tour. Most courses on Tour use length to try and prevent the event from becoming a “birdie fest” however, Seaside relies on the wind as its main defense. Seaside is a coastal/links-style golf course that features wide fairways and greens. The tournament is won on approach shots and putting. Most of the greens are elevated with large runoff areas which emphasizes Greens in Regulation % as a key stat this week. The bermudagrass putting surface will also provide some challenge for players who aren’t particularly used to the grainy surface. Capitalizing on birdie opportunities will be placed at a premium this week based on the previous winner’s scores.

The Seaside Course at Seas Island Golf Club is a Par 70 that plays 7,005 yards. The layout features four Par 3’s, twelve Par 4’s, and two Par 5’s.

The four Par 3’s range between 179 yards and 223 yards. At the 2022 RSM Classic, only two Par 3’s (No. 6 & No. 17), had a scoring average under par.

No. 6, 179 yards, Par 3: “A downhill par three protected by a bunker in front and water behind the green, this hole is made tricky by swirling winds and requires the right club selection.”

No. 12, 223 yards, Par 3: “This long par three is at the mercy of the wind. Playing to the center of the green, regardless of pin position, will be the aim of all players. A large bunker protects the right side of the green making it attractive as players must negotiate the marsh short and left.”

Nine of the twelve Par 4’s range between 400 – 450 yards. No. 8 is the shortest Par 4 listed at 368 yards with the longest being No. 18, at 470 yards.

No. 13, 408 yards, Par 4: “This signature hole plays once again at the mercy of the wind. Players have to negotiate the marsh running the entire left side of the hole while paying attention to the three large fairway bunkers protecting the right side. An uphill shot to the green protected by a large front bunker makes birdie on this hole a bonus.”

No. 16, 407 yards, Par 4: “This signature hole requires thinking on the tee. With a tidal creek running the entire left side of the driving area, players will hit their tee shots out to the right, but the farther right one plays, the longer the second shot to the well-protected green. A bunker protects the green on the front, right side, while a false front runs the entire left side.”

The two Par 5’s are No. 7 and No. 15. Neither of the two Par 5’s are listed at over 600 yards. At the 2022 RSM Classic, both of the Par 5’s, had a scoring average under par.

No. 7, 582 yards, Par 5: “The lone par five on the front side is flanked with water to the right and dunes to the left. A good tee shot, depending on the wind, can leave a player with the opportunity to reach this green in two shots. A large fairway bunker complicated a second shot lay-up due to a large fairway bunker left and dunes to the right. The green has a substantial movement and is protected by marsh long and right.”

No. 15, 565 yards, Par 5: “Long hitters can carry the fairway bunker stretching across the left side to have a shot at reaching this par five. Players unable to carry the bunker must play right on the tee shot and lay up for a short third shot. The raised green is very well protected with bunkers left and right, and back pin positions can provide a difficult two-putt.”

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 13, 16

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
• Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards
• Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards
• Proximity: 125 – 150 Yards
• Driving Accuracy
• Birdies or Better Gained
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 156 players competing in this year’s RSM Classic. Only two of the world’s top twenty players are in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

Ludvig Aberg (+1400) missed the cut in his debut at this event last year. In his three starts on the FedExCup Fall Swing, Aberg has finished T2 (Sanderson Farms Championship), T13 (Shriners Children’s Open), and T10 (World Wide Technology Championship).

Brian Harman (+1600) will tee it up for the first time since the TOUR Championship. He finished tied for second at the RSM Classic last year. In addition to that, he also has two other top-10 finishes at Sea Island.

Russell Henley (+1800) will tee it up for the first time since the TOUR Championship where he finished T14. In addition to that event, Henley had finished inside the top 20 in each of his last four tournaments. Last year at the RSM Classic, he finished T22. In his eight appearances at Sea Island, Henley has three top-10 finishes.

Cameron Young (+1800) finished T54 at the World Wide Technology Championship in his last start. In his debut at Sea Island last year, Young finished T29.

Corey Conners (+1800) will tee it up for the first time since the TOUR Championship. He’s played well here in the past with three top-25 finishes in his last three appearances at the RSM Classic.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Adam Svensson (’22), Robert Streb (’20, ’14), Tyler Duncan (’19), Austin Cook (’17), Mackenzie Hughes (’16), Kevin Kisner (’15), Chris Kirk (’13), Ben Crane (’11),

• Notable Withdraws:
  • David Lipsky, Nicolai Hojgaard, Aaron Rai, Davis Riley, Geoff Ogilvy, Chad Ramey

• Residents of St. Simons Island, Georgia:
  • Brian Harman, Davis Love III, Zach Johnson, Harris English, Keith Mitchell and Patton Kizzire

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event and how they qualified, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

	RSM Classic	RSM Classic	RSM Classic	RSM Classic	RSM Classic
	Sea Island Golf Club	Sea Island Golf Club	Sea Island Golf Club	Sea Island Golf Club	Sea Island Golf Club
	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
Webb Simpson	MC	T8	T37	2	3
Corey Conners	–	T22	T10	–	T23
Taylor Pendrith	T15	T26	–	–	–
Matthew NeSmith	MC	T29	T15	T14	–
Alexander Noren	–	MC	T18	T10	–
William Gordon	T15	–	MC	T10	–

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

	RSM Classic	RSM Classic	RSM Classic	RSM Classic	RSM Classic
	Sea Island Golf Club	Sea Island Golf Club	Sea Island Golf Club	Sea Island Golf Club	Sea Island Golf Club
	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018
Dylan Frittelli	MC	MC	MC	T35	–
Davis Thompson	MC	MC	MC	T23	–
Michael Gligic	MC	T29	MC	MC	–
Kevin Tway	MC	MC	MC	–	–
Martin Trainer	T54	MC	MC	–	MC
Sam Ryder	MC	MC	MC	MC	MC
Chad Ramey	MC	MC	–	–	–
Scott Harrington	MC	–	MC	T43	–
Justin Lower	MC	MC	–	–	–
Martin Laird	–	–	MC	MC	–
Richy Werenski	MC	MC	MC	–	T15

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Adam Svensson (-19)
  • Price: 150-1
• 2021: Talor Gooch (-22)
  • Price: 40-1
• 2020: Robert Streb (-19)
  • Price: 350-1
• 2019: Tyler Duncan (-19)
  • Price: 200-1
• 2018: Charles Howell III (-19)
  • Price: 50-1

 

Facts & Figures:

• Seven of the last 13 winners had achieved a T7 or better result at either the RBC Heritage (Hilton Head) or the Sony Open (Waialae Country Club) at some point in their career before their win at The RSM.
• Four of the last seven winners had recorded a T6 or better in one of their last eight starts on the PGA TOUR before winning here.
• Three of the last four winners have been first-time winners on the PGA TOUR.

All of these stats were provided by Geoffrey Ulrich. You can check out his article on the RSM Classic here.

 

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

• 2022: Adam Svensson
  • T39 – Cadence Bank Houston Open (PGA)
  • MC – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
  • T59 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
  • T69 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
  • T54 – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)

• 2021: Talor Gooch
  • 60 – Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)
  • T11 – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
  • T5 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • T11 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
  • T4 – Fortinet Championship (PGA)

• 2020: Robert Streb
  • T55 – Bermuda Championship (PGA)
  • MC – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)
  • T21 – Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship (PGA)
  • MC – Safeway Open (PGA)
  • MC – Wyndham Championship (PGA)

• 2019: Tyler Duncan
  • T48 – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
  • T18 – Bermuda Championship (PGA)
  • MC – Houston Open (PGA)
  • T56 – Safeway Open (PGA)
  • MC – Sanderson Farms Championship (PGA)

• 2018: Charles Howell III
  • MC – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
  • T61 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
  • T5 – CIMB Classic (PGA)
  • T24 – BMW Championship (PGA)
  • T58 – Dell Technologies Championship (PGA)

 

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

• 2022: Adam Svensson
  • 2021 – MC
  • 2018 – MC
  • 2015 – MC

• 2021: Talor Gooch
  • 2020 – MC
  • 2019 – T23
  • 2018 – MC
  • 2017 – MC

• 2020: Robert Streb
  • 2019 – MC
  • 2018 – T32
  • 2017 – MC
  • 2016 – T57
  • 2015 – T25
  • 2014 – WON

• 2019: Tyler Duncan
  • 2018 – T74
  • 2017 – T25

• 2018: Charles Howell III
  • 2017 – MC
  • 2016 – T13
  • 2015 – T9
  • 2014 – T73
  • 2013 – T27
  • 2012 – T7
  • 2011 – T32
  • 2010 – T6

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Russell Henley (+1600) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units

• Eric Cole (+3000) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.27 to win 8.10 Units

• Brendon Todd (+4500) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units

• Taylor Pendrith (+5000) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

• Mackenzie Hughes (+8000) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.21 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Alex Noren (+150) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

• Billy Horschel (+188) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.88 Units

• Luke List (+188) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.88 Units

Total Risk on Top 20: 3.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Ryan Palmer (+125) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.25 Units

• Will Gordon (+130) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units

 

As always, all of my placement bets are through BetMGM as they’re one of the only books without dead-heat rules. If you’d like to bet these placements at BetMGM, you can get up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win if you’re a first-time user.

Here’s my link to sign up at BetMGM!

 

Total Risk on the RSM Classic: 6.21 Units

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.