The Sentry Tournament of Champions – Preview & Picks

The 2023 PGA Tour season is underway with the Sentry Tournament of Champions. By no means is this a major tournament but it is a big event. This invite-only event is reserved for players who have won a tournament on Tour since the previous year’s edition or received an exemption.

This year’s field features 39 players including seventeen of the top twenty in the Official World Golf Ranking. They’ve expanded the field from last year’s event to include several non-winners.

There are several storylines coming into this year’s event and it starts with Will Zalatoris who’s making his first start since withdrawing from the BMW Championship. He’ll also be making his debut here along with Tom Kim, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young, Sahith Theegala, Ryan Brehm, Luke List, Trey Mullinax, Chad Ramey, J.J. Spaun, Sepp Straka, and Adam Svensson.

Rory McIlroy, the current No. 1 golfer in the world is the lone invitee to have declined his invitation to this event. Scottie Scheffler, the current No. 2 player in the world is the highest-ranked player in this event. Jon Rahm who started off as the No. 1 golfer in the world last year, currently sits in 5th and is hoping for a rebound season after only winning the Mexico Open.

This is always a fun event to watch and features plenty of birdies with a gorgeous Hawaii backdrop. Now let’s break down the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions as we look to start the year off on a good note!

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: January 5th, 2023 – January 8th, 2023
• Location: Kapalua, Hawaii, United States
• Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua
• Course Type: Coastal
• Par: 73 (3x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,596 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: TifEagle bermudagrass .105”
• Fairways: Celebration bermudagrass .375”
• Collars: Celebration bermudagrass .300”
• Approaches: Celebration Bermuda .300”
• Bunkers: 93
• Water Hazards: 0 (In-Play on 0 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 8,722 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 11 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $15,000,000/$2,700,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 550
• Field/ Cut: 39 Players | No Cut
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 68.22 (-4.78), Rank 50 of 50
  • 2021: 69.32 (-3.68), Rank 51 of 51
  • 2020: 72.22 (-0.78), Rank 20 of 41

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, January 5th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 10:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, January 5th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 10:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, January 5th, 2023
  • NBC – 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, January 5th, 2023
  • NBC – 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Partly Cloudy 75 F, 15 mp/h NE, 76% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Partly Cloudy 75 F, 17 mp/h ENE, 72% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Sunny 75 F, 18 mp/h ENE, 67% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: PM Showers 75 F, 13 mp/h NE, 67% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The tournament was originally founded in 1953 and was previously restricted to golfers who had won a tournament on tour during the previous calendar year. However, this year will feature an increased field with several other top players earning exemptions.

The Sentry Tournament of Champions has been held during the first week of January since 1999. It was that year that the event was moved to its current location at the Kapalua Resort.

This event has undergone several different title sponsors and venues in addition to format changes. From 2012-2015 it used a Friday-Monday format to not compete against the NFL schedule.

The 2023 edition will feature its largest prize pool ever and will increase the winner’s share to $2.7 Million from last year’s $1.476 Million. In addition to the major increase in money, the FedEx Cup Points offered have also jumped up to 550.

Jack Nicklaus holds the record for the most wins at this event with 5 (1963, 2964, 1971, 1973, and 1977).

72-Hole Record: 258, Cameron Smith (2022)

18-Hole Record: 61, J. Rahm (3rd Rd, ’22), J. Thomas (3rd Rd, ’22), M. Jones (4th Rd, ’22)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

The Plantation Course at Kapalua is arguably one of the most gorgeous tracks on the PGA Tour. It sits on the shores of Maui offering stunning views from most holes.

That being said, it’s also one of the easiest courses on Tour as seen by the previous year’s scoring averages. This event is what most touts like to call a “birdie-fest” as the winning scores have all been around -20 or below. The only outlier came back in 2020 when Justin Thomas won this tournament with a -14. In 2020, the winds did play more of a factor than what we’re supposed to see this weekend, so I’m betting we see a winning score around what we’re used to.

The Plantation Course is the only Par 73 we’ll see on Tour all year and is a bomber’s paradise playing roughly 7,600 yards. The course features 5 Par 5’s all of which play over 525 yards with the 18th playing an astounding 677 yards. Despite this being one of the longer courses on tour, the elevation does have to be accounted for as the 18th is still reachable in two for some players.

The main defense of the course is the winds, as it sits on the coastline but, also the elevation changes. This course has the largest amount of elevation changes on Tour which can cause blind approach shots.

During the 2019/2020 renovation, the course underwent a complete renovation affecting every aspect of it. The tee boxes were moved back, bunkers were repositioned, and most greens were re-contoured. Despite all these changes to make the course more difficult, the past two winners have finished at -25 and -34.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 18

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
• Par 5 Scoring
• Proximity: 200-225 Yards
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

39 Players will compete in the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua this week. 17 of the world’s top 20 players will be in the field.

• Jon Rahm (+650), has played twice on Tour this season finishing T4 at the CJ Cup and T8 at the Hero World Challenge. He’s also had success overseas recently winning the DP World Tour Championship and Spanish Open. Rahm has finished inside the top 10 in each of his five starts at Kapalua.
• Scottie Scheffler (+900), is coming off a second-place finish at the Hero World Challenge. In his three other starts on Tour this year he’s finished T45, T3, and T9. This will be his second time here at Kapalua finishing T13 back in 2021.
• Patrick Cantlay (+1000), has only played once since the TOUR Championship finishing T2 at the Shriners Children’s Open. He’s played in this event four times before placing T15, 4th, T13, and 4th.
• Xander Schauffele (+1000), has had a great start to the season finishing inside the top 10 in both of his starts. He’s finished inside the top 10 in each of his past four events including the two this year. Xander won this event back in 2019 and has since placed T2, T5, and 12th.
• Justin Thomas (+1100), finished 5th at the Hero World Challenge in his last start on Tour. He’s won the Sentry Tournament of Champions twice before in 2017 and 2020.

 

Previous Winners in the field: Justin Thomas (’20, ’17), Xander Schauffele (’19), Jordan Spieth (’16)

Notable Withdraws: Rory McIlroy

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

• Sungjae Im: T5/ T8
• Collin Morikawa: T7/ T7/ T5
• Jon Rahm: 2/ T8/ 10/ T7/ 2
• Justin Thomas: T21/ 1/ T22/ 3/ 1/ 3/ T5
• Xander Schauffele: T22/ 1/ T2/ T5/ 12

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.

• Mackenzie Hughes: T25/ T41
• Viktor Hovland: T31/ T30

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Cameron Smith (-34)
  • Price: 28-1
• 2021: Harris English (-25)
  • Price: 33-1
• 2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
  • Price: 11-2
• 2019: Xander Schauffele (-23)
  • Price: 22-1
• 2018: Dustin Johnson (-24)
  • Price: 15-2

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Justin Thomas (+1100) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 0.73 to win 8.03 Units

• Cameron Young (+2200) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.10 Units

 

Picks (Top 10):

• Sungjae Im (+130) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

Sungjae’s coming off a T8 finish at the Hero World Challenge gaining 1.80 strokes over the field. Im also has some great course history here finishing T5 and T8 in his two appearances at Kapalua. He gained strokes on approach in both of those events which is the one part of his game he has struggled with. He’s also been trending upward in that category gaining strokes on approach in two of his last three events. Sungaje struggled on the greens in his debut but managed to gain 0.71 strokes on the green in his second appearance. He fits this course extremely well and when you combine his recent form and course history, it’s hard to not think he’ll have success again here.

• Collin Morikawa (+140) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.40 Units

Morikawa had a down year last season but has shown he’s back in action finishing T15 and 6th in his last two starts on Tour. He’s played well at Kapalua in this past with three top-10 finishes. His stellar ball-striking has allowed him to succeed here in the past and given his recent form, he should do well again this year.

Total Risk on Top 10s: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the Sentry Tournament of Champions: 3.10 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.