Congrats to all the Patrick Cantlay backers last week at the BMW Championship. He had been trending towards a win in the past few events, so I’m glad he was finally able to pull it off. Patrick Cantlay became the ninth player to win multiple titles this season, tying the most in a single season in the last 20 years (2018-19). He’s also the fifth defending champion to win this season, the most in a single season since 2007.
The PGA TOUR comes to an end this week at East Lake Golf Club. The top 30 players will square off this week with the winner taking home the FedEx Cup. While the TOUR Championship has been held at this venue since 2005, this is only the fourth time the staggered-start format will be used.
Before I go any further, I just wanted to say thank you to everyone who has been reading my articles. It’s also been great interacting with everyone on Twitter and Instagram.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: August 25th, 2022 – August 28th, 2022
- Location: Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- Course: East Lake Golf Club
- Course Type: Tree-lined Parkland
- Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
- Length: 7,346 Yards
- Format: 72-hole stroke play (Staggered Start/ Starting Strokes)
- Greens: MiniVerde ultradwarf Bermuda .100”
- Fairways: Meyer zoysiagrass .400”
- Rough: Tifway bermudagrass 2.5”
- Bunkers: 74
- Water Hazards: 5 (In-Play 4 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 6,090 sq. ft.
- Stimpmeter: 12.5 ft.
- Purse: $75,000,000 / Winner $18 Million
- FedEx Cup Points: The winner receives the FedExCup
- Field/ Cut: 30 (29) Players| No Cut
- Course Scoring Average:
- 2021: 68.81 (-1.19), Rank 37 of 51
2020: 68.92 (-1.08), Rank 24 of 41
2019: 70.03 (+0.03), Rank 14 of 49
- 2021: 68.81 (-1.19), Rank 37 of 51
- Historic Cut Line:
- N/A
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, August 25th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1 PM – 6 PM
- Round 2: Friday, August 26th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1 PM – 6 PM
- Round 3: Saturday, August 25th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1 PM – 2:30 PM
- NBC – 2:30 PM – 7 PM
- Round 4, Sunday, August 25th, 2022
- Golf Channel – 12 PM – 1:30 PM
- NBC – 1:30 PM – 6 PM
- Thursday: Thunderstorms 74 F, 6 mp/h SSE, 85% Humidity, 70% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Scattered Thunderstorms 76 F, 5 mp/h SSW, 79% Humidity, 50% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Partly Cloudy 78 F, 6 mp/h E, 73% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Isolated Thunderstorms 78 F, 8 mp/h ESE, 75% Humidity, 30% Chance of Rain
FedEx Cup Playoff Format:
In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedEx Cup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.
To see the current FedEx Cup Standings, you can click the following link.
| Seed | Player | Starting Score |
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | -10 |
| 2 | Patrick Cantlay | -8 |
| 4 | Xander Schauffele | -6 |
| 5 | Sam Burns | -5 |
| 6 | Cameron Smith | -4 |
| 7 | Rory McIlroy | -4 |
| 8 | Tony Finau | -4 |
| 9 | Sepp Straka* | -4 |
| 10 | Sungaje Im | -4 |
| 11 | Jon Rahm | -3 |
| 12 | Scott Stallings* | -3 |
| 13 | Justin Thomas | -3 |
| 14 | Cameron Young* | -3 |
| 15 | Matt Fitzpatrick* | -3 |
| 16 | Max Homa* | -2 |
| 17 | Hideki Matsuyama | -2 |
| 18 | Jordan Spieth | -2 |
| 19 | Joaquin Niemann | -2 |
| 20 | Viktor Hovland | -2 |
| 21 | Collin Morikawa | -1 |
| 22 | Billy Horschel | -1 |
| 23 | Tom Hoge | -1 |
| 24 | Corey Conners | -1 |
| 25 | Brian Harman | -1 |
| 26 | K.H. Lee* | E |
| 27 | J.T. Poston* | E |
| 28 | Sahith Theegala* | E |
| 29 | Adam Scott | E |
| 30 | Aaron Wise | E |
* Players making their TOUR Championship debut
Course/ Tournament History:
In 2007, the TOUR Championship was introduced. Back then, it was the final event of the four-tournament FedEx Cup Playoffs. Starting in 2019, the FedEx Cup was reduced to three events. With that change, the TOUR Championship was moved up in the schedule to late August from mid-September.
From 1997 to 2003, this event alternated between the Champions Golf Club and East Lake Golf Club. Starting in 2005, East Lake become the permanent home for the final tournament in the PGA TOUR Playoffs.
East Lake Golf Club was established in 1904 and is the oldest golf course in the city of Atlanta. The first course was built from 1906-07 before renowned golf architect Donald Ross redesigned the course in 1913. Since then, the course has undergone several renovations overseen by Rees Jones, the son of Robert Trent Jones.
The winner of the TOUR Championship will receive a 5-year PGA Tour exemption. This is a recent change made in 2019 as the exemption was only 3 years from 1998-2018. In addition to the exemption, the winner also receives $18 million an increase from the $15 million Patrick Cantlay received last season.
72-Hole Record: 257, Tiger Woods (2007)
18-Hole Record: 60, Zach Johnson (3rd round, 2007)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
East Lake Golf Club was originally designed by Tom Bendelow and underwent renovations by both Donald Ross and Rees Jones. It’s a Par 70 that’s listed at 7,346 yards. It features four Par 3’s, twelve Par 4’s, and two Par 5’s. East Lake is a classic tree-lined, parklands layout with significant elevation changes on several holes. The fairways are some of the narrowest on Tour so accuracy off the tee will be placed at a premium this week. If players do find the rough, it can be extremely penal making their approach shot very difficult. The average green size is around the Tour average so players will have some room to miss.
The four Par 3’s range between 197 yards and 235 yards. In terms of stats, two of the four Par 3’s range between 200-225 yards.
No. 9 is the longest par 3 on the course playing over 230 yards. The tee shot is relatively straight forward with the only real threat being the greenside bunkers. The green two-tiered makes for some difficult putts depending on the pin locations.
No. 15 is a Par 3 playing 214 yards that features an island green. Players will have to account for the wind pushing the ball right off the tee towards the water. This green is very small with the only bail-out being the bunker along the left side.
The majority of the twelve Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 12 is the shortest listed at 389 with the longest being No. 14, playing 520 yards.
No. 1 is the first of the Par 5’s that have been shortened to play as Par 4s for the TOUR Championship. Off the tee, players will try and position the ball on the left side of the fairway to avoid a blind approach shot. This green is challenging as it severely slopes from back right to front left.
No. 8 is a difficult Par 4 that requires players to be accurate off the tee. A body of water runs along the left side of the entire hole with fairway bunkers on the right. The green is one of the largest on the course but is guarded by big bunkers.
No. 14 is the second of two Par 5’s that have been shortened to play as Par 4s for the TOUR Championship. Despite being listed at 500+ yards, it does play shorter and it is downhill. Player’s second shots can be difficult given the lie and the numerous threats around the green. There’s water along the left and back of the green with bunkers guarding the right side.
The two Par 5’s are No. 6 and No. 18. In terms of distance No. 18 is the longest listed at just under 600 yards.
No. 6 is a slight dogleg right with tall pines guarding the right side preventing players from taking a very aggressive line. With a good drive, players should be able to reach this short Par 5 in two. If players do miss short on either side, they’ll likely find the greenside bunkers.
No. 18 is a downhill Par 5 that requires a great drive to have a possibility of reaching the green in two. If players do decide to layup short of the green, two fairway bunkers do come into play. The green is slightly elevated and guarded by deep bunkers on the left and right.
Featured Holes: 9, 15, 17, 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Scrambling
- Proximity: 200-225 Yards
- Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards
- Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
- Event/ Comparable Course History
The Field/ Odds:
The odds for this event are different from any other tournament as they have the starting position factored in. Also, another thing to keep an eye out for when placing a bet this week is to verify if the odds are including/ not including starting strokes. The odds are significantly different as you can imagine, and may mess up your bet if you choose the wrong option. For all of my bets this week, I will be placing them WITH starting strokes included.
There are 29 players in the field out of the possible 30 that have qualified for the final event in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Scottie Scheffler (+250), will start at East Lake in the lead this week. He’s won four PGA Tour events this season headlined by his victory at Augusta National. Last week at Wilmington Country Club he finished T3. Scheffler has played at East Lake Golf Club twice before. In 2020, he had the 2nd best 72-hole score (w/o starting strokes) and in 2021, he had the 17th best.
Patrick Cantlay (+400), won the FedEx Cup at East Lake last season after starting in the lead (-10). He’s coming off a victory at the BMW Championship and will start in 2nd place (-8) this week. Before that win, he had six top-15 finishes in his last seven starts on Tour.
Xander Schauffele (+700), will start in 4th place this week at East Lake (-6). He has three wins on Tour this season including the Travelers Championship and Genesis Scottish Open. Last week he struggled on Sunday at Wilmington Country Club to finish T3. Xander won this event in 2017 and finished with the best 72-hole score (w/o starting strokes) in 2020.
Will Zalatoris (+1200), will start in 3rd place this week at East Lake (-7). This will be the first time that he’s played in the TOUR Championship. Zalatoris won his first PGA Tour event two weeks ago at TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude Championship). Last week, he withdrew from the BMW Championship after tweaking his back. He’s expected to play this week but it’s unsure if he’ll be 100%.
Previous Winners in the field (Tour Championship); Patrick Cantlay (’21), Rory McIlroy (’19, ’16), Xander Schauffele (’17), Jordan Spieth (’15), Billy Horschel (’14), Henrik Stenson (’13)
Notable Withdraws: Will Zalatoris (back)
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Previous Winners/ Scores:
- 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-21)*
- Price: 4-1
- Starting Strokes/ Position: -10 (1)
- 2020: Dustin Johnson (-18)*
- Price: 15-8
- Starting Strokes/ Position: -10 (1)
- 2019: Rory McIlroy (-18)*
- Price: 9-1
- Starting Strokes/ Position: -5 (5)
- 2018: Tiger Woods (-11)
- Price: 14-1
- 2017: Xander Schauffele (-12)
- Price: 100-1
(* In 2019, the staggered stroke play format was introduced.)
Picks (Outrights) (WITH STARTING STROKES):
- Scottie Scheffler (+260) – DraftKings
- Risk 1.00 to win 2.60 Units
Before I get into my reasoning, I know this event is awful in terms of odds. It’s one of my least favorite events to bet, so I’m going to keep the card light for a reason. There is some value out there but, it’s far and few between.
I’m going with a solo outright this week. If we look at the past three winners since the staggered-start format has been introduced, two of the three winners started in the lead. There’s no doubt that giving Scheffler a two-stroke lead over the field provides him with a significant advantage. He’s been the best player on Tour this season amassing four wins, more than any other player.
Scottie has played at East Lake Golf Club twice before. He had the 2nd best 72-hole score (w/o starting strokes) in 2020 and the 17th best 72-hole score (w/o starting strokes) last season.
In terms of recent form, Scheffler has struggled a bit missing the cut in two of his last four starts on Tour. However, we saw him play well last week at Wilmington Country Club finishing T3. He only lost strokes in one category (Around the Green) and gained strokes putting for the first time in his last five starts. Another positive trend has been his accuracy off the tee, where he’s gained strokes over the field in his last four starts.
He’s shown he can play well here and enters this week off a solid performance in the BMW Championship. Given the lead over the rest of the field, I’ll be shocked if anyone can catch him.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.00 Units
Picks (Outrights) (WITHOUT STARTING STROKES):
I’m not placing these bets this week but here are my selections if you’re looking for some additional picks.
- Jon Rahm (+900) – DraftKings
- Risk – to win – Units
- Xander Schauffele (+1200) – Caesars
- Risk – to win – Units
- Viktor Hovland (+3000) – DraftKings
- Risk – to win – Units
Picks (Top 5) (WITH STARTING STROKES):
- Xander Schauffele (+110) – Caesars
- Risk 0.50 to win 0.55 Units
Xander Schauffele has found his game late this year winning in back-to-back weeks at the Travelers and the Genesis Scottish Open. Following those two victories, he’s finished T15/ T57/ T3. He had a shot last week at the BMW Championship but struggled Sunday shooting 1 over-par.
He’s played in TOUR Championship five times before and has finished 1/7/2/1/3 in 72-hole score w/o starting strokes. His overall game has been much better this year, especially his ball-striking. Xander does struggle a bit at times with his short game but has gained strokes around the green in six of his last nine events. Given his improved play and course history, I think he’ll do well again this week at East Lake.
- Jon Rahm (+210) – Caesars
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.05 Units
Jon Rahm comes into East Lake Golf Club in great form finishing T5 and T8 in the first two Playoff events. He’s played in TOUR Championship five times before and had the low 72-hole score w/o starting strokes last year.
In terms of course fits, Jon Rahm has to be one of the best. His ability to drive the ball long but also extremely accurate should provide him an advantage over the field. Where he gets into trouble is his play around and on the green. However, if we look at his recent play he’s gained strokes around the green in four of his last five events. His putting has also been better gaining strokes in both of his last two starts.
While Rahm hasn’t had the best of years, only winning once at the Mexico Open. He’s still one of the best players in the world and should do well this week.
Just missed T5 Placements: Rory McIlroy (+140) – Caesars, Sam Burns (+300) – Caesars
Total Risk on Top 5 Placements: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 10) (WITH STARTING STROKES):
- Justin Thomas (+110) – Caesars
- Risk 0.50 to win 0.55 Units
Justin Thomas was 7 shots back at the PGA Championship with 18 holes to go and was able to make up that ground. Now, he’ll have 72 holes to try and complete that same task. To be fair, we don’t need him to win the TOUR Championship, we just need him to finish inside the top 10.
He’s played at East Lake six times before having success in every event. In 2019, Justin Thomas started in the lead but would falter as Rory McIlroy would come from 5 shots back to win. In each of the six times he’s played here, he’s never finished worse than 9th in 72-hole score w/o starting strokes. JT isn’t in the best of form right now finishing T53/T13/T52 in his last three events. Despite that, he’s shown he can have success here and should be able to finish inside the top 10.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (+160) – Bet365
- Risk 0.50 to win 0.80 Units
Matthew Fitzpatrick won his first PGA Tour Event earlier this season at the U.S. Open. Since that victory, he’s finished T6/ T21/ T5/ T48. He struggled last week at Wilmington Country Club, especially with his irons. That was the first time all season that he lost strokes on approach. The one positive for Fitzpatrick was his putting, gaining over a stroke on the green.
This will be the first time that Matthew Fitzpatrick tee’s it up at East Lake. He starts at -3, which is T11. Despite his lack of course knowledge, he fits the course model for success. His accuracy off the tee should allow him a slight advantage as the rough can be extremely penal. Fitzpatrick is an excellent ball-striker with a putter to match so he should do well in his TOUR Championship debut.
Just missed T10 Placements: Viktor Hovland (+225) – Caesars
Total Risk on Top 10 Placements: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the Tour Championship: 3.00 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
