Viktor Hovland comes through for us at the BMW Championship as we cash an 18-1 winner! He went absolutely nuclear on Sunday posting a 61 which bested the previous course record set by Max Homa on Friday. In addition to Hovland, we also caught Corey Conners (+105) Top 20.
Let’s get into this week’s storylines…
The final event of the PGA Tour Season is upon us, the TOUR Championship. The top thirty players in the FedEx Cup Standings will compete in this week’s unusual event. Based on their current ranking they start with a current number of strokes.
Scottie Scheffler almost won last week at the BMW Championship but came up short finishing T2. He’ll look for redemption at the TOUR Championship after he suffered a similar fate losing to Rory McIlroy late Sunday afternoon.
Rory McIlroy won his third FedEx Cup last season and is looking for his record fourth FedExCup title. This is his highest position entering the TOUR Championship since the FedExCup Starting Strokes format was introduced in 2019.
There will be five players making their TOUR Championship debut including Adam Schenk, Nick Taylor, Wyndham Clark, Tom Kim, and Taylor Moore.
With the top six for U.S. Team now confirmed (Scheffler, Clark, Harman, Cantlay, Homa, Schauffele), the remaining six captain’s picks will come at the conclusion of the TOUR Championship. There are several players teeing it up this week at East Lake who are certainly in contention for one of those captain’s picks including Lucas Glover, Patrick Cantlay, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Speith, and Sam Burns.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: August 24th, 2023 – August 27th, 2023
- Location: Atlanta, Georgia, United States
- Course: East Lake Golf Club
- Course Type: Tree-lined Parkland
- Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
- Length: 7,346 Yards
- Format: 72-hole stroke play (Staggered Start/ Starting Strokes)
- Greens: MiniVerde ultradwarf bermuda
- Fairways: Meyer zoysiagrass .400”
- Rough: Tifway 419 bermudagrass 2.5”
- Bunkers: 74
- Water Hazard(s): 5 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 5,619 sq. ft.
- Stimpmeter: 12.5 ft.
- Purse/ Winner: $75,000,000 /$18,000,000
- FedEx Cup Points: The winner receives the FedExCup
- Field/ Cut: 30 Pros | No Cut
- Playoff Holes/ Format: 18, 18, 15, 16, 17, 18/ Sudden Death
- Course Scoring Average:
- 2022: 67.91 (-2.10), Rank 44 of 50
- 2021: 68.81 (-1.19), Rank 37 of 51
- 2020: 68.92 (-1.08), Rank 24 of 41
- Historic Cut Line:
- N/A
Course Architect:
- Course Architect: Tom Bendelow (1904)
- Renovations: Donald Ross (1913), Rees Jones (1994, 2008, 2016)
Comparable Courses & Greens:
- Comparable Courses:
- Designer Link (Tom Bendelow):
- Medinah Country Club – Tom Bendelow (1925) – 2019 BMW Championship
- Designer Link (Donald Ross):
- Detroit Golf Club – Donald Ross (1916) – Rocket Mortgage Classic
- Sedgefield Country Club – Donald Ross (1926) – Wyndham Championship
- Oak Hill Country Club (East) – Donald Ross (1926) – 2023 PGA Championship
- Designer Link (Rees Jones):
- Torrey Pines (South) – Rees Jones (2001, 2019) – Farmers Insurance Open
- Comparable Location (Atlanta, Georgia):
- Sea Island Golf Club – St. Simons Island, Georgia – The RSM Classic
- Augusta National Golf Club – Augusta, Georgia – Masters Tournament
- Comparable Yardage (7,346 Yards):
- Riviera Country Club – 7,322 Yards – The Genesis Invitational
- Keene Trace Golf Club – 7,328 Yards – Barbasol Championship
- Olympia Fields Country Club – 7,366 Yards – BMW Championship
- Detroit Golf Club – 7,370 Yards – Rocket Mortgage Classic
- Comparable Greens (MiniVerde ultradwarf bermuda):
- Memorial Park GC – MiniVerde bermudagrass .100” – Cadence Bank Houston Open
- Comparable Average Green Size (5,619 sq. ft.):
- Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – 5,500 sq. ft. – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
- TPC Sawgrass – 5,500 sq. ft. – THE PLAYERS Championship
- TPC Deere Run – 5,500 sq. ft. – John Deere Classic
- Innisbrook Resort – 5,822 sq. ft. – Valspar Championship
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, August 24th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, August 25th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, August 26th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET
- CBS – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, August 27th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM ET
- CBS – 1:30 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Thursday: Mostly Sunny 95 F, 5 mp/h SW, 58% Humidity, 7% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Sunny 99 F, 8 mp/h WNW, 50% Humidity, 8% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Mostly Sunny 98 F, 8 mp/h NW, 48% Humidity, 8% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Partly Cloudy 89 F, 9 mp/h NE, 60% Humidity, 15% Chance of Rain
FedEx Cup Playoff Format:
In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedEx Cup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.
You can click the following link to see the current FedExCup Standings.
| Seed | Player | Starting Score |
| 1 | Scottie Scheffler | -10 |
| 2 | Viktor Hovland | -8 |
| 3 | Rory McIlroy | -7 |
| 4 | Jon Rahm | -6 |
| 5 | Lucas Glover | -5 |
| 6 | Max Homa | -4 |
| 7 | Patrick Cantlay | -4 |
| 8 | Brian Harman | -4 |
| 9 | Wyndham Clark* | -4 |
| 10 | Matt Fitzpatrick | -4 |
| 11 | Tommy Fleetwood | -3 |
| 12 | Russell Henley | -3 |
| 13 | Keegan Bradley | -3 |
| 14 | Rickie Fowler | -3 |
| 15 | Xander Schauffele | -3 |
| 16 | Tom Kim* | -2 |
| 17 | Sungjae Im | -2 |
| 18 | Tony Finau | -2 |
| 19 | Corey Conners | -2 |
| 20 | Si Woo Kim | -2 |
| 21 | Taylor Moore* | -1 |
| 22 | Nick Taylor* | -1 |
| 23 | Adam Schenk* | -1 |
| 24 | Collin Morikawa | -1 |
| 25 | Jason Day | -1 |
| 26 | Sam Burns | E |
| 27 | Emiliano Grillo | E |
| 28 | Tyrrell Hatton | E |
| 29 | Jordan Spieth | E |
| 30 | Sepp Straka | E |
* Players making their TOUR Championship debut
Course/ Tournament History:
In 2007, the TOUR Championship was introduced. Back then, it was the final event of the four-tournament FedEx Cup Playoffs. Starting in 2019, the FedEx Cup was reduced to three events. With that change, the TOUR Championship was moved up in the schedule to late August from mid-September.
From 1997 to 2003, this event alternated between the Champions Golf Club and East Lake Golf Club. Starting in 2005, East Lake become the permanent home for the final tournament in the PGA TOUR Playoffs.
East Lake Golf Club was established in 1904 and is the oldest golf course in the city of Atlanta. The first course was built from 1906-07 before renowned golf architect Donald Ross redesigned the course in 1913. Since then, the course has undergone several renovations overseen by Rees Jones, the son of Robert Trent Jones.
The winner of the TOUR Championship will receive a 5-year PGA Tour exemption. This is a recent change made in 2019 as the exemption was only 3 years from 1998-2018.
- 72-Hole Record:
- 257, Tiger Woods (2007)
- 18-Hole Record:
- 60, Zach Johnson (3rd round, 2007)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
East Lake Golf Club was originally designed by Tom Bendelow and underwent renovations by both Donald Ross and Rees Jones. It is on the longer side measuring 7,346 yards. It ranks 7th out of 46 courses in terms of length. The fairways are on the narrower side, ranking 1st of 46, with the average fairway width being 24.5 yards. The average green size is roughly 5,619 square feet which is on the smaller side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. There are 74 bunkers that rank as the 21st fewest out of the 46 courses.
The four Par 3’s range between 197 yards and 235 yards. In terms of stats, two of the four Par 3’s range between 200-225 yards.
No. 9, Par 3, 235 Yards: “Depending on the wind, players could use anything from a fairway wood to a long iron on this demanding par 3. Deep bunkers left and right of the two-tiered green leave little room for error. Any player leaving the ball above the pin must take extra care, facing one of East Lake’s most difficult putts. Sunday afternoon drama awaits.”
No. 15, Par 3, 211 Yards: “This 209-yard par 3 is an intimidator, especially with the prevailing wind pushing the ball toward the water right of the green. The only bail-out is a bunker on the left which provides another terrifying shot. The most challenging hole location is front right, but back left, behind the bunker, is also tough.”
The majority of the twelve Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 12 is the shortest listed at 389 with the longest being No. 14, playing 520 yards.
No. 1, Par 4, 469 Yards: “A par 5 that has been shortened to play as a par 4 for the TOUR Championship, this hole requires that the tee shot be long and to the left side of the fairway to allow players to see the putting surface. The second shot will be a mid-to long-iron into a fairly large green. The green slopes severely from back right to front left, making lag putting from the back a real chore.”
No. 8, Par 4, 455 Yards: “Two bunkers lie to the right of the fairway landing area on this par 4 at East Lake. The approach is played to a large, undulating green that is flanked by a big bunker to the right and one short to the left. A dominant ridge crosses the center of this green, making it tough to get the ball close to back hole locations.”
No. 14, Par 4, 520 Yards: “The second of two par 5s that have been shortened to play as par 4s for the TOUR Championship, this 520-yard hole will play much shorter than the yardage as the drive will pitch forward on the downslope of the fairway. The second shot will be a long iron from a downhill lie making it tough to get to tight hole locations.”
The two Par 5’s, No. 6 and No. 18 are both relatively short when compared to PGA Tour standards. Players will need to take advantage of this scoring opportunity if they want to have success here.
No. 6, Par 5, 525 Yards: “Three tall pines on the right side of the fairway force players to hit a fade to the best position in the fairway. With a good drive, players can reach this short par 5 in two. A well-bunkered green poses problems if missed long or short. One of the easiest holes at East Lake, a par here will drop a shot to the field.”
No. 18, Par 5, 590 Yards: “A long drive provides an opportunity to reach this green in two, especially if the hole plays downwind. The second shot will be either a mid- to long-iron layup short of a fairway bunker on the left or a fairway wood try for the green in two. The green is guarded in front by deep bunkers, and anything long will be a difficult up-and-down.”
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15, 18
You can click the following link for a hole-by-hole overview of the course.
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
- Scrambling
- Proximity: 200-225 Yards
- Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards (x2)
- Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x5)
- Event/ Comparable Course History
The Field/ Odds:
The odds for this event are different from any other tournament as they have the starting position factored in. Also, another thing to keep an eye out for when placing a bet this week is to verify if the odds are including/ not including starting strokes. The odds are significantly different as you can imagine and may mess up your bet if you choose the wrong option.
There will be 30 players competing in this year’s TOUR Championship. Here are the current favorites (with starting strokes) in this week’s event:
Scottie Scheffler (+140) will start in the lead at the TOUR Championship for the second year in a row (-10). Last year, he went into Sunday with the lead but after a charge from Rory McIlroy, he would finish T2. Scottie is coming off another blown lead at the BMW Championship where he finished T2 as well. He has two wins on the PGA Tour this season but it feels like he should have a lot more based on his statistics. His poor putting has been the main reason for his woes this year. Scheffler has only gained strokes putting in eight of his twenty-one starts on Tour this season. Scheffler also won the East Lake Cup back in 2016 which is a collegiate tournament that is played at this venue.
Rory McIlroy (+330) will look to defend his title at the TOUR Championship. In addition to last year, he’s won this event two other times. He started at -6 last year in this event but will start at -7 this year, only three shots back. This is his highest position entering the TOUR Championship since the FedExCup Starting Strokes format was introduced in 2019. McIlroy has two wins on Tour this season and has not finished outside the top 10 in his last nine starts.
Viktor Hovland (+500) is coming off a win at the BMW Championship where he shot a 61 on Sunday to win by two strokes. It was the lowest final-round score by a winner in a FedExCup Playoffs event. With that win, Hovland now has three wins on Tour this year which is the best season of his career. He’s played at East Lake three times before only cracking the top 5 once (2021). Hovland also won the East Lake Cup back in 2018. He’ll start at -8 which is just two shots back of the first seed.
Jon Rahm (+800) has the most wins out of any player on the PGA Tour this season with 4. However, his last win was in April (the Masters), and in his nine starts since then, he only has three top-10 finishes. He’s coming off a T31 and T37 finish so he’ll need to turn things around if he hopes to win his first FedEx Cup. Rahm has played in this event six times before with his best finish coming in 2021 (2nd). He’ll start at -6 which is four shots back of the first seed.
- Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
- Rory McIlroy (’22, ’19, ’16), Patrick Cantlay (’21), Xander Schauffele (’17), Jordan Spieth (’15)
- Injury Concerns:
- Tom Kim (Wrist / Ankle)
- Jason Day (Vertigo)
- Notable Withdraws:
- None
You can click the following link to see the most up-to-date odds.
You can click the following link to see the full field for this event and how they qualified.
Horses for Courses (East Lake Golf Club w/o Starting Strokes):
| TOUR Championship | TOUR Championship | TOUR Championship | TOUR Championship | |
| East Lake Golf Club | East Lake Golf Club | East Lake Golf Club | East Lake Golf Club | |
| 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | |
| Xander Schauffele | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Rory McIlroy | 1 | 14 | 7 | 1 |
| Max Homa | 3 | |||
| Sepp Straka | 5 | |||
| Tyrrell Hatton | 6 |
Donkeys for Courses (East Lake Golf Club w/o Starting Strokes):
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.
| TOUR Championship | TOUR Championship | TOUR Championship | TOUR Championship | |
| East Lake Golf Club | East Lake Golf Club | East Lake Golf Club | East Lake Golf Club | |
| 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | |
| Sam Burns | T25 | T17 | ||
| Corey Conners | T25 | T17 | 23 |
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2022: Rory McIlroy (-21)*
- Price: 12-1
- Starting Strokes/ Position: -4 (T6)
- 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-21)*
- Price: 4-1
- Starting Strokes/ Position: -10 (1)
- 2020: Dustin Johnson (-18)*
- Price: 15-8
- Starting Strokes/ Position: -10 (1)
- 2019: Rory McIlroy (-18)*
- Price: 9-1
- Starting Strokes/ Position: -5 (5)
- 2018: Tiger Woods (-11)
- Price: 14-1
(* In 2019, the staggered stroke play format was introduced.)
Picks (Outrights WITHOUT Starting Strokes):
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2500) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Unit
- Sungjae Im (+3500) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Unit
- Russell Henley (+3500) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Unit
- Jordan Spieth (+3500) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Unit
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.01 Units
Picks (Top 5 WITH Starting Strokes):
- Max Homa (+160) – BetMGM
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units
- Xander Schauffele (+170) – BetMGM
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.70 Units
Total Risk on Top 5: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 10 WITH Starting Strokes):
- Sungjae Im (+160) – BetMGM
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Unit
- Tom Kim (+200) – BetMGM
- Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
Total Risk on Top 10: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the TOUR Championship: 5.01 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative, is always encouraged.
