The U.S. Open – Preview & Picks

The season’s third Major is here, the U.S. Open. This will be the 123rd edition of this event and the first time that it’s been held at Los Angeles Country Club. The last time the U.S. Open was held in the Los Angeles area was in back 1948, 75 years ago. This is the 86th USGA Championship held in California, the second most of any state (Pennsylvania, 90). Out of those eighty-six events, fifteen were U.S. Opens. Before this year, the most recent first-time U.S. Open venue was Erin Hills in 2017 and Chambers Bay in 2015. Neither of those courses is on the list to host another U.S. Open but LA CC is slated to host again in 2039.

The last time a USGA championship was held at Los Angeles Country Club was the 2017 Walker Cup where the US defeated Great Britain & Ireland 19-7. For those unfamiliar with the Walker Cup, it’s a similar format to the Ryder Cup that pits the best amateurs from the USA and the United Kingdom against each other. Several notable names were on the United States team including Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris, Maverick McNealy, Cameron Champ, Doug Ghim, and Doc Redman. Collin Morikawa was incredible as he was one of three Americans to win all four of his matches.

In addition to the 2017 Walker Cup, Los Angeles Country Club has also hosted the 1930 United States Women’s Amateur Golf Championship and the 1954 U.S. Junior Amateur Golf Championship.

Let’s get into this week’s storylines…

The biggest story in golf history, the “merger” of the PGA Tour, LIV Tour, and DP World Tour will be the main topic. I won’t say anything further on this topic but stay tuned for a podcast on Wednesday.

Matt Fitzpatrick will look to defend his U.S. Open title after winning last year at the Country Club. He became the 13th player to have won both the U.S. Amateur and U.S. Open. Following that victory, he has only won once since then which was at the RBC Heritage earlier this season when he defeated Jordan Spieth in a playoff. His play dipped a little this year as he was struggling with a neck injury but comes into this event with some hope after finishing tied for ninth at the Memorial Tournament.

Several players have California ties through their college careers which includes Patrick Cantlay (UCLA), Justin Suh (USC), Collin Morikawa (CAL), Max Homa (CAL), Xander Schauffele (SDSU), and Sahith Theegala (Pepperdine). Numerous players were also born in California including Bryson Dechambeau (Modesto, California), Rickie Fowler (Murrieta, California), Collin Morikawa (Los Angeles, California), Max Homa (Burbank, California), and Sahith Theegala (Orange, California).

Out of those groups, the two standouts with significant ties to California with a correlated record of success are Collin Morikawa and Max Homa. Morikawa won the 2020 PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park (San Francisco, California). Most recently he withdrew at the Memorial Tournament due to back spasms so it’ll be something to monitor this week. Homa has already won twice in the state of California this year and has ties to Los Angeles Country Club. Back in 2013, he won the Pac-12 Championship which was held at this course. In addition to that, Max Homa holds the competitive course record at LA CC as well.

Scottie Scheffler, six-time PGA tour winner, and current World No. 1 enters the U.S. Open in great form with four consecutive top 5 finishes. He’s already won twice on the Tour this year (WM Pheonix Open & THE PLAYERS). Last year he was able to win his first Major Championship at Augusta National. Since then, he has finished runner-up in two of the last five Majors including the 2022 U.S. Open and 2023 PGA Championship.

World No. 2, Jon Rahm won the first Major Championship of the season, the Masters. He now has two Major Championships including the 2021 U.S. Open which was held at Torrey Pines. Rahm has also had success in California this season winning The American Express and The Genesis Invitational. If he’s able to win this week, he’ll become the seventh player to have won the Masters and U.S. Open in the same year.

There are also a few top players in the world that are looking for their first Major championship. Patrick Cantlay, current World No. 4, had his best finish in a major at the 2019 PGA Championship with a T3 finish. Viktor Hovland, current World No. 5, finished tied for second at the PGA Championship last month. He’s now finished inside the top 10 in each of his last three Major Championship appearances. Xander Schauffele, current World No. 6, has had several runner-up finishes in Major championships but has failed to break through yet. Max Homa, current World No. 7, is also looking for his first Major Championship. Those four players have combined for 25 PGA TOUR titles and have all won at least twice since the start of the 2021-22 season.

Lastly, there are fourteen players from the LIV Tour competing in this year’s U.S. Open. Headlining the list of players include Brooks Koepka, the 2023 PGA Championship winner, and Cameron Smith, the defending Open Championship winner. Dustin Johnson is another player to mention as he won the 2016 U.S. Open. Phil Mickelson is also in the field this week and can complete the career Grand Slam if he’s able to win.

Also, before I break down this tournament I just wanted to wish all of the dads out there a Happy Father’s Day!

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: June 15th, 2023 – June 18th 2023
• Location: Los Angeles, California, United States
• Course: Los Angeles Country Club (North)
• Course Type: Classical/ Technical
• Par: 70 (5x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,421 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Pure Distinction Creeping Bentgrass
• Fairways: Tifway 2 bermudagrass .375″
• Rough: Tifway 2 / Bandera bermudagrass 3-4″
• Bunkers: 66
• Water Hazard(s): 0 (In-Play on 0 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 6,500 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 13 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: TBA
• FedEx Cup Points: 600
• Field/ Cut: 156 Pros | Top 60 and Ties – 36 Holes

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, June 15th, 2023
  • Peacock – 9:40 AM – 1:00 PM ET
  • USA – 1:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
  • NBC – 8:00 PM – 11:00 PM ET
• Round 2: Friday, June 16th, 2023
  • Peacock – 9:40 AM – 1:00 PM ET
  • USA – 1:00 PM – 8:00 PM ET
  • NBC – 8:00 PM – 11:00 PM ET
• Round 3: Saturday, June 17th, 2023
  • NBC – 1:00 PM – 11:00 PM ET
• Round 4: Sunday, June 18th, 2023
  • Peacock – 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET
  • NBC – 1:00 PM – 11:00 PM ET

 

Weather:

• Thursday: AM Clouds/ PM Sun 70 F, 6 mp/h SSW, 72% Humidity, 11% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Partly Cloudy 72 F, 6 mp/h SW, 68% Humidity, 6% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Mostly Sunny 74 F, 7 mp/h SSW, 67% Humidity, 4% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Partly Cloudy 74 F, 7 mp/h SSW, 65% Humidity, 5% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The United States Open Championship, also known as the US Open, is the annual open national championship of golf in the United States. It’s the third of four major championships.

The first U.S. Open was played in 1895 on a nine-hole course at the Newport Country Club in Newport, RI. Back then it was a single-day 36-hole competition. The first American-born player to win the U.S. Open was John J. McDermott in 1911.

Until 2017, the U.S. Open retained a full 18-hole playoff on the following day. However, since 2018, the USGA adopted a two-hole aggregate playoff format. The format will switch to sudden death if the playoff is still tied after two holes.

Winners of the U.S. Open will not only take home the prize money but will also receive a five-year exemption on the PGA Tour, are invited to play in the three other majors for the next five years, and are exempt from qualifying for the U.S. Open itself for 10 years.

In 1987, several residents of Los Angeles, led by Joseph Sartoni and Edwards Tufts organized an association to further the golf in the area. They leased a 16-acre lot at the corner of Pico and Alvarado streets for a nine-hole golf course called “The Windmill Links.” The name came from the makeshift clubhouse that was crafted from the bottom of an abandoned windmill. After the club had outgrown several locations, Los Angeles Country Club moved to its current location bordering Beverly Hills and opened on May 30, 1911. The original 18-hole golf course was designed by Sartoni, Tufts, Norman Macbeth, and Charles Orr.

In the 1920s, club member and famed gold architect George C. Thomas Jr. redesigned the North Course. The latest renovation was in 2010 and took nearly five years to complete led by Gil Hanse to restore Thomas’ 1928 layout.

In 2015, the historic 106-year-old clubhouse underwent a renovation to restore its original grandeur. The reopening in 2016 included the rededication of the Regan Terrance in honor of Ronald Regan, the 40th president of the United States and member of LA CC.

In that same year, Hanse renovated the club’s South Course which opened in July of 2016.

The first edition of the Los Angeles Open, now known as The Genesis Invitational, was held at LACC (North) in 1926, and the event has been held there a total of five times (1926, 1934, 1935, 1936, 1940). The last major championship played in the Los Angeles area was the 1995 PGA Championship, held at The Riviera Country Club, the host venue of The Genesis Invitational

• Most Tournament Wins (U.S. Open):
  • 4 – Willie Anderson 1901, 1903–1905; Bobby Jones 1923, 1926, 1929–30; Ben Hogan 1948, 1950–51, 1953; Jack Nicklaus 1962, 1967, 1972, 1980

• 72-Hole Record:
  • 268 – Rory McIlroy (2011 at Congressional CC)

• 18-Hole Record:
  • 63 – Johnny Miller (4th round, 1973 at Oakmont), Tom Weiskopf (1st round, 1980 at Baltusrol), Jack Nicklaus (1st round, 1980 at Baltusrol), Vijay Singh (2nd round, 2003 at Olympia Fields), Justin Thomas (3rd round, 2017 at Erin Hills), Tommy Fleetwood (4th round, 2018 at Shinnecock Hills)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

In terms of length, Los Angeles Country Club is one of the longest courses on Tour measuring 7,421 yards. It’s the fifth-longest course players will face this season.

The fairways are on the wider side, ranking 5th (widest) of 46, with the average fairway width being 43.0 yards. This is also the first U.S. Open with Bermuda grass rough since 2005 at Pinehurst No. 2.

The average green size is roughly 6,500 square feet which is on the larger side when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour. The greens are Bentgrass which is something we don’t traditionally see in California. Torrey Pines (North) in California is the only course on Tour that features Bentgrass greens.

There are 66 bunkers which is the 15th fewest out of 46 courses.

The five Par 3’s, No. 4, No. 7, No. 9, No. 11, & No. 15, range between 124 yards and 290 yards. This is one of the more unique layouts we’ve seen on Tour and one of the only courses to have this many Par 3s.

No. 7, 284 yards, Par 3: This is a long, challenging par 3. However, players do not necessarily need to aim for the green as they can run the ball up along the left side of the fairway. Most players will likely take this approach as there is a large bunker that protects the green along the right side.

No. 9, 171 yards, Par 3: This is an elevated par 3 with the green playing approximately 15-20 feet above the tee box. The green itself is one of the narrowest on the course but is the deepest. Three bunkers surround the green on the left, right, and front so a precise iron is required. Players will likely try to aim for the back of the green and use the slope depending on the pin location.

No. 11, 290 yards, Par 3: This is the longest par 3 at Los Angeles Country Club and second longest Par 3 in U.S. Open history (No. 8 – Oakmont).

The majority of the ten Par 4’s are longer than 450 yards. Three of the Par 4’s are longer than 500 yards. No. 6 is the shortest listed at 330 yards with the longest being No. 16, playing 542 yards.

No. 5, 480 Yards, Par 4: A fairly open Par 4 off the tee but players will look to favor the left side of the fairway as the right side slopes toward the right rough. The green itself is the second largest on the property at 8,055 sq. ft and is protected by bunkers on the front and right side.

No. 6, 330 yards, Par 4: This is one of the more interesting holes on the course as this short Par 4 is driveable off the tee. However, it is a blind shot so players will have to factor that in. Most players will likely layup as the green is one of the smallest on the course and is protected by bunkers in the front and fescue in the back.

No. 13, 507 Yards, Par 4: Off the tee, players will need to aim towards the left side of the fairway to avoid the pronounced left-to-right slope that will likely feed the ball into the rough and will result in a blind second shot. The majority of the green is surrounded by closely mown turf that will allow players to play a variety of recovery shots should they miss the green.

🚨☠️ The right side of the fairway is dead at LACC’s par-4 13th… #USOpen2023

pic.twitter.com/bWTDczeJTn

— NUCLR GOLF (@NUCLRGOLF) June 12, 2023

The three Par 5’s are No. 1, No. 8  & No. 14. This is the first time a Par 5 will be the opening hole in a U.S. Open since 2017 at Erin Hills. No. 14 is the longest of the Par 5’s listed at 623 yards. Given the difficulty of the course, players will need to take advantage of these holes.

No. 1, 578 yards, Par 5: This is one of the easier holes on the course. Off the tee, players will look to avoid two fairway bunkers on either side. If they’re able to do so, they should have a chance to reach the green in two shots. On their approach, they’ll only have to worry about a bunker short left of this elevated green. The green itself slopes off the back so if they do hit it long, it could create some issues.

No. 8, 547 yards, Par 5: This is another hole that provides a good chance at birdie as it’s the shortest Par 5 on the course. Off the tee, players will aim along the left side of the fairway as the drive zone pitches severely from left to right toward the barranca. From there, players will have a semi-blind approach shot into the green which is reachable for most players in two. Players will not necessarily need to aim for the green as they can land short and allow the ball to run up. Anything right or left of the green can mean trouble as it’s protected by sand on either side.

No. 14, 623 yards, Par 5: This is the longest hole on the course which can play longer depending on the breeze. Off the tee, players will try to avoid the fairway bunkers on the right side. Players will likely choose to layup as the hole narrows towards the extremely small green.

Hole	Yards	Par		Hole	Yards	Par
1	578	5		10	409	4
2	497	4		11	290	3
3	419	4		12	380	4
4	228	3		13	507	4
5	480	4		14	623	5
6	330	4		15	124	3
7	284	3		16	542	4
8	547	5		17	520	4
9	171	3		18	492	4
Out	3,534	35		In	3,887	35
				Total	7,421	70

 

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 11

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Driving Accuracy
• Scrambling
• Bogey Avoidance
• Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards (x3)
• Par 4 Scoring: 500+ Yards (x3)
• Par 3 Scoring: 225 – 300 Yards (x3)
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
• Major History
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 156 players competing in this year’s U.S. Open. All of the world’s top 10 ranked players are in the field this week. A few notable absences this week are Will Zalatoris, Daniel Berger, Talor Gooch, and Tiger Woods. This is also the third event of the year that LIV Tour players have been invited to. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:

• Scottie Scheffler (+700) enters the U.S. Open in great form with four consecutive top 5 finishes. He’s been terrific in the first two Major Championships of the year finishing T10 at the Masters and T2 at the PGA Championship. His last and only Major victory was last year at Augusta National. While his kryptonite has always been his play on the green, it’s been even worse as of late as he’s lost strokes putting in five of his last six starts.
• Jon Rahm (+1000) has the most wins on the PGA Tour with four. One of those wins was at the first Major Championship of the year, the Masters. In the most recent Major, he struggled at Oak Hill finishing T50 at the PGA Championship. He’s already won the U.S. Open back in 2021 when it was at Torrey Pines. With a win this week, Rahm would become the first player to win five times in a season since Justin Thomas in 2016-17 and the first to win multiple majors in the same year since Jordan Spieth in 2015 (Masters,
  U.S. Open).
• Brooks Koepka (+1100) won the U.S. Open in back-to-back years from 2017 to 2018. Since then, he’s finished inside the top 5 in two of his last three appearances at this event. He’s been terrific in Major Championships this year winning the PGA Championship and finishing T2 at the Masters. In his last start on the LIV Tour, he finished 14th at LIV DC.
• Rory McIlroy (+1400) won the 2011 U.S. Open at Congressional but has not won this event since then. However, he has finished inside the top 10 in each of his last four appearances at the U.S. Open. He won the CJ Cup in South Carolina earlier this season and enters in good form. In his last three starts on the PGA Tour, he’s finished T7/ T7/ T9. McIlroy has won four majors (2011 U.S. Open, 2012 PGA Championship, 2014 Open Championship, 2014 PGA Championship) but none since the start of the 2014-15
  season. He has 18 top-10s in majors since his most recent title, the most of any player in that span. McIlroy is making his 48th start in a major and 33rd since winning the 2014 PGA Championship.
• Patrick Cantlay (+1400) has played in seven U.S. Opens but has never finished inside the top 10. In his last two appearances at this event, he’s finished T15 and T14. He’s still looking for his first Major Championship with his best finish coming at the 2019 PGA Championship (T3). Cantlay has yet to win on the PGA Tour this season but does have ten top-20 finishes in fourteen starts.

 

• Previous Winners in the Field:
  • Matt Fitzpatrick (’22), Jon Rahm (’21), Bryson DeChambeau (’20), Gary Woodland (’19), Brooks Koepka (’18, ’17), Dustin Johnson (’16), Jordan Spieth (’15), Martin Kaymer (’14), Justin Rose (’13), Webb Simpson (’12), Rory McIlroy (’11)

• LIV Players in the field (14):
  • Abraham Ancer, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, Joaquin Niemann, Mito Pereira, Thomas Pieters, Patrick Reed, Cameron Smith, Carlos Ortiz, Sergio Garcia, Martin Kaymer, Sebastian Munoz,

• Notable Withdraws:
  • None

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

[U.S Open Results – No previous results from Los Angeles Country Club]

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

Xander Schauffele

T14

T7

5

T3

T6

T5

Brooks Koepka

55

T4

2

1

1

T13

T18

T4

MC

Collin Morikawa

T5

T4

MC

T35

Scottie Scheffler

T2

T7

MC

T27

MC

Rory McIlroy

T5

T7

T8

T9

MC

MC

MC

T9

T23

T41

MC

1

Hideki Matsuyama

4

T26

T17

T21

T16

T2

MC

T18

T35

T10

Patrick Reed

T49

T19

T13

T32

4

T13

MC

T14

T35

Jon Rahm

T12

1

T23

T3

MC

MC

T23

Dustin Johnson

T24

T19

T6

T35

3

MC

1

T2

T4

55

MC

T23

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a specific course/tournament.

[U.S Open Results – No previous results from Los Angeles Country Club]

	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
Luke List	MC			MC	MC
Corey Conners	MC	MC	MC			MC
Cameron Young	MC	MC		MC
Victor Perez	MC	MC	MC
Sahith Theegala		MC				MC
Kurt Kitayama	MC		MC
Justin Suh		MC					MC
Paul Barjon		MC	MC
Mito Pereira	MC			MC
Wyndham Clark	MC	MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Matthew Fitzpatrick (-6) – The Country Club (Composite)
  • Price: 30-1
• 2021: Jon Rahm (-6) – Torrey Pines (South)
  • Price: 10-1
• 2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6) – Winged Foot (West)
  • Price:25-1
• 2019: Gary Woodland (-13) – Pebble Beach
  • Price: 80-1
• 2018: Brooks Koepka (+1) – Shinnecock Hills
  • Price: 25-1
• 2017: Brooks Koepka (-16) – Erin Hills
  • Price: 50-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Jon Rahm (+1100) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.73 to win 8.03 Units

• Xander Schauffele (+2100) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.39 to win 8.19 Units

• Jordan Spieth (+3200) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.25 to win 8.00 Units

• Cameron Smith (+3300) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.63 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Tyrrell Hatton (+120) – BetMGM
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units

Total Risk on Top 20s: 1.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 30):

• Rickie Fowler (+100) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

• Corey Conners (+115) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units

• Mito Pereira (+145) – FanDuel
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units

Total Risk on Top 30s: 3.00 Units

 

Matchups:

• Matthew Fitzpatrick (-120) over Dustin Johnson – DraftKings
• Cameron Smith (-110) over Max Homa – DraftKings

 

Total Risk on the U.S. Open: 5.63 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.