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Rutgers at Minnesota +8.5 (O/U 128) 7:00pm ET
The Scarlet Knights head to Minnesota Thursday night, looking to build momentum off their 19 point comeback this past Sunday at Penn St. The Knights are 4-1 ATS vs teams under .500 this year, they have shown their defense is far too superior for the lower level squads. One of those four wins was at home vs the Gophers, where they shot a season high 60% and made 37 field goals. As well as holding Minnesota to 36% shooting, in a 25 point dominant victory.
The Knight defense has held 5 of their last 8 opponents to 58 points or less, this does not bode well for a Gopher squad with some fake confidence shooting the ball right now. Having scored 66 points a game in their L5, facing Maryland, Illinois, Nebraska, Penn St and Iowa in the process. Five teams that rank at the bottom in many defensive categories.
The Golden Gophers are 4-10-1 ATS at home this season, as well as 0-4-1 as 5-9.5 point dogs. They have given up 80 points a game in their last 4, and if Rutgers can score in bunches tonight. Look out, it could get out of hand.
Rutgers -8.5 (DraftKings -110) 1 unit
Detroit Mercy at Youngstown St -9 (O/U 156.5) 8:00pm ET
I’m not sure how they can make this number high enough tonight, I see a points bonanza being scored here. YSU starts their quest Thursday night on a Horizon league Championship, a team that can surely make some noise at the dance.
They get to face Detroit Mercy who can also score in bunches, but are arguably one of the worst defensive teams in the country. YSU averages 19.1 assists per game at home, and has averaged 49% shooting this season. YSU comes off two games, where they gave up 79 points to IUPUI and 83 to Robert Morris.
I see an up and down the court, back and forth game here, which will put me on the over!
Over 156.5 (DraftKings -110) 1 unit
LA Clippers at Golden St +4 (O/U 231.5) 10:00pm ET
The Warriors are in unfamiliar territory, they’re HOME DOGS. As good as they have been in recent years, and their astute home records it hasn’t happened often. Steph Curry has been out now just a little north of two weeks, and life without him is starting to become normal, missing 151 games over the last 6 seasons due to various injuries. Without his presence, the Warriors are 5-4 SU and 5-3-1 ATS without him these past 2.5 weeks. Quietly their on a 3 game winning streak and have shown ability to play at both ends. Draymond Green coming back vs Portland surely helped, holding Portland to 105 points on 43% shooting. The GSW offense caught fire in the 2nd half, to overcome a 17 point deficit at halftime scoring 75 second half points!
The Warriors L5 games have shot 47%, 39% from downtown with 16.4 three pointers per contest. Luckily for them, the Clippers defense has been in shreds since the All-Star break. Giving up 52% shooting in their L5. Both these teams have put up a high assist rate of 27+ and 29+ a game as of recently. The question will be, who can play enough defense to slow the other one down? Well, Golden St still ranks very high defensively in shooting % against as well as 3pt%. At 45% shooting, and 32%(1st in the league) from beyond the arc. Yet the Clippers lead the league in 3pt%, something has to break.
As I mentioned, Golden State is an underdog, a role they are 4-0 ATS this season. The Chase Center has been good to them, going 5-1 ATS in their last 6, holding opponents to 107.6 points per game. Another trend I like, they’re 10-4-1 ATS off a win at home, as opposed to 3-12-1 ATS off a win on the road. So let’s take the Warriors at home tonight for a strong UNIT UPGRADE! 2-0 on unit upgrades of 2 or more this week.
Warriors +4 (Barstool -110) 2 units
Good luck to anyone if you’re tailing, let’s build!
