If you enjoy my content, give me a follow @TrustRocco on Twitter!
This will be my first article featuring NCAA-B, as well as NBA. I believe we could see some odd scores after the All-Star break, giving most of these guys a much needed week off. I will still have a small NBA play tonight, as I do see some value.
NBA: New Orleans at Toronto -6 (O/U 226)
Which leads us to the Raptors, a team many thought would be sellers instead of buyers at the trade deadline. This team still believes they can win with the current product they have. Former Spur Jakob Poeltl made quite an impact in the game leading into the break, scoring 30 points, shooting 88% and grabbing 9 boards. Toronto finally got the chance to come home and get a well needed break, after surviving their gauntlet of 10 of 12 games away from home. They were able to win 3 of the 4 home games, granted it was against inferior competition, but it was just what the doctor ordered. Confidence and rest!
Now they face a Pelican team not having the season they had hoped for, losers of 10 of 17 that featured a 10 game losing streak. Yes they did get Ingram back Jan 25th, but only going 4-7 since his emergence. The Pels are 5-14 ATS their last 19 away and are 1-10 ATS their last 11 as 3.5-9 point dogs! Clearly they don’t play the underdog roll very well. New Orleans can turn the ball over quite often, ranking 23rd offensively in turnovers and have averaged 18 per game in their last 5. Unfortunately for them, they play a scrappy Raptor squad who gets after it, forcing 16.6 TO’s per game.
I think the Raptors are too deep and have too much talent for New Orleans. Their big men will do as they want down low, averaging 12.7 offensive rebounds a game. So I will lay the points with Toronto!
Raptors -6 (FanDuel -108) 0.75 unit
NCAAB: Northwestern at Illinois -6 (O/U 136)
Many would consider this a revenge spot for the Illini after losing handily against the Wildcats 6 weeks ago. I don’t look at it that way, Illinois had beaten Northwestern 8 straight times previous to this season. More or less they have owned the Cats. Northwestern knows all the narratives, they hear it before and after each game, which begs the question. Why no love for the Wildcats?
They have won 5 straight vs quality opponents, with the last 3 being against Purdue, Indiana and Iowa. Non-the-less all as underdogs, while holding teams to 59 points per game defensively during the win streak. The Cats are 6-2 ATS away, are 9-5 ATS on three days rest, are 4-1 ATS away off a win and my favorite, 7-2 ATS as dogs of 3-7 points. This just screams Northwestern to me!
I personally don’t think Illinois has the greatest resume, they have struggled against bad teams, they have some awful losses and just don’t move the ball around enough. That will be a problem vs Northwestern’s defense tonight. Speaking of defense, the Illini don’t exactly play a lot of it. Teams are shooting 45.4% from the field and 37.4% from three in their last 5 games.
So with Illinois inability to create scoring passing the ball, relying on a lot of 1 on 1’s, and Northwestern’s ability to crash the glass(7.3 offensive boards given up a game) and play stout defense. I am all over the Cats tonight, with a small UNIT UPGRADE! We will even sprinkle in a light ML play!
Northwestern +6 (DraftKings -110) 1.25 units
Northwestern ML +210 (DraftKings) 0.50 unit
For anyone tailing, good luck and lets keep building this bankroll!
