The U.S.A. takes home Gold in the Olympics, as Xander Schauffele wins the Olympics with a -18. Rory Sabatini took Silver with a final round of -10, to shoot a 61, and claim a medal for his adopted country of Slovakia. We have a seven man playoff for third where C.T. Pan of Taiwan would outlast the competition and take home the Bronze Medal. There is 19 golfers in the field this week who played in the Olympics, and will have to adjust to the 14 hour time difference.
We’re onto our final World Golf Classic Event of the season at TPC Southwind. The FedEx St. Jude Classic was first played in 1958 but, has been hosted at TPC Southwind’s from 1989 to 2018. During that time the World Golf Classic- NEC/Bridgestone Invitational was hosted at Firestone CC. In 2018, Bridgestone opted out of their sponsorship and in 2019, the FedEx St. Jude Classic and WGC-Bridgestone merged into the current event. So, when you see the previous winners prior to 2018, it’s for the St. Jude Classic as is was hosted at TPC Southwind’s during that time.
This is a no cut event, which means a guaranteed pay day for the players in this tournament. Because of this, it has drawn a lot of big names, including 9 of the top 10 golfers in the FedExCup Standings. In order to qualify to play in WGC Event, you need to be ranked in the top 50 golfers in the world (WGR). However, The WGC- St. Jude Invitational has a field capacity of 66, with the remaining entrants gaining eligibility based on WGR and other tournament winners. In 2020, the field capacity was increased to 78, due to the playing time missed caused by the pandemic.
Bryson Dechambeau is back after a positive COVID-19 test, which held out of the Olympics. While Jon Rahm who suffered a similar fate, is still out. Brooks Koepka, who chose to decline the invitation to the Olympics after Bryson’s forced withdraw, has had some great success here. In the two years that TPC Southwind has hosted the WGC- St. Jude Invitational, he finished 1st and T2nd. Other players that are in the field, who have had success prior here include Daniel Berger and Dustin Johnson.
Some notable withdraws are: Jon Rahm (COVID-19), Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Tournament Information:
- Dates: August 5, 2021- August 8, 2021
- Location: Memphis, Tennessee, United States
- Course: TPC Southwind
- Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
- Length: 7,233 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 66 Players | No Cut
- Greens: Champion Bermuda
- Fairways: Meyer Zoysiagrass
- Purse: $10,500,000 / Winner $1.82 Million
- FedEx Cup Points: 550
- Stimpmeter: 11-12.5 feet
- Avg. Green Size: 4,300 sq. ft.
- Water Hazards: 11
- Bunkers/ Rough: 75 bunkers/ Rough-Bermuda 2.5″
- Stroke Average:
- 2020: 69.554 (-0.446)
- 2019: 69.504 (-0.496)
Course History:
TPC Southwind is a member of the PGA Tour’s Tournament Players Club. These courses are fairly forgiving, with the main goal of providing the average golfer a chance to play the course’s they watch on TV.
The course opened in 1988 and was designed by Ron Prichard, in consultation with former PGA Tour Pro’s Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller. The course hosted it’s first PGA Tour event in 1989, the FedEx St. Jude Classic. This event was hosted at Colonial Country Club prior. The course has added over 200 yards in length since its first event and has played at roughly the same distance as it currently stands since 2005.
Course Guide:
TPC Southwind’s will be playing 44 yards shorter than in 2020, due to the Par-3 13th being cut back in distance. The course is a technical track with tight fairways and limited scoring opportunities. The players will have to be careful when deciding which holes to attack and when. The two-Par 5’s will offer eagle opportunities for most player’s, which are critical to take advantage of. The course also features 8 par 4’s that are between 450-500 yards. The heat will also play a factor here, just as it did in Tokyo.
Tournament Trends:
- The last 9 WGC Stroke Play events have been won by Major Champions
- The last 24 of 26 WGC Stroke Play events have been won by Major Champions
- The last 5 out of 5 winners at TPC Southwind are from the Southern United States
- The last 4 out of 5 winners at TPC Southwind were 1st in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- The last 4 out of 5 winners at TPC Southwind were inside the top 5 for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- The last 4 out of 5 winners at TPC Southwind were inside the top 10 for Green in Regulation
In-Play/ Live Betting Angles:
Beware of the water!!! This course historically sees more balls hit in the water than any other course on the PGA Tour. If you’re live betting this week this is crucial to know, that 11 holes have water on them. I would stay away from placing any bets on these individual holes this week as things can go south (no pun intended) very quickly. Holes 5, 7, 12, 14, 17, and 18 are some of the most difficult holes on the course with the highest bogey percentages. Hole #14 is a long Par 3 that consistently ranks as one of the toughest Par 3’s on the PGA Tour.
Now that you know what to avoid, one key stat to pay attention to is driving accuracy. The ability to put yourself in a good position off the tee on this course is critical. Even though this is a Par 70 course, it is probably the toughest Pat 70 on Tour. Greens in Regulation % is also another stat to pay attention to with the GIR % at TPC Southwind being 59%, as compared to the PGA Tour average of 65%.
If you’re looking to back some one Sunday or In-Play, I would recommend it being one of the more elite players. Historically this has been an event, that these players have dominated and if you can find one of them a shot or two back on Sunday at a decent price, I would do so.
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
Architect: Ron Prichard (1987)
Renovation/ Re-design: 2004
Comparable Courses:
- TPC Sawgrass
- Innisbrook Resort
- Sea Island Golf Course
- Pebble Beach
- Memorial Park
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, August 5, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 12:00 PM –5:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, August 6, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 12:00 PM – 5:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, August 7, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM ET
- CBS** – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, August 8, 2021
- Golf Channel* – 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM ET
- CBS** – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
Weather:
- Thursday: Mostly Sunny 79 F, 5 mp/h NNE, 52% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Partly Cloudy 81 F, 7 mp/h SSW, 55% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Mostly Sunny 83 F, 10 mp/h SSW, 58% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Partly Cloudy 86 F, 12 mp/h SSW, 62% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (combination of SG: OTT and SG: APP)
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
- Driving Accuracy
- Greens in Regulation %
- Par 4s Gained: 450-500 yards
- Opportunities Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
Average Key Stats (previous 2 winners – WGC FexEx St. Jude Invitational):
- 2020: Justin Thomas (-13)
- SG Off the Tee: 16th, SG Approach: 2nd, SG Around the Green: 4th, SG Tee to Green: 1st, SG Putting: 55th.
- 2019: Brooks Koepka (-16)
- SG Off the Tee: 5th, SG Approach: 11th, SG Around the Green: 54th, SG Tee to Green: 6th, SG Putting: 1st.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
WGC FexEx St. Jude Invitational
- 2020: Justin Thomas, -13 (12/1)
- 2019: Brooks Koepka, -16 (11/1)
St. Jude Classic
- 2018: Dustin Johnson, -19 (7/1)
- 2017: Daniel Berger, -10 (28/1)
- 2016: Daniel Berger, -13 (33/1)
- 2015: Fabian Gomez, -13 (400/1)
- 2014: Ben Crane, -10 (175/1)
Picks (Outright):
- Brooks Koepka (+1200) – William Hill
- Risk: 0.65 to win 7.80 Units
- Colin Morikawa (+1400) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.55 to win 7.70 Units
- Scottie Scheffler (+3100) – FanDuel
- Risk: 0.25 to win 7.75 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.45 Units
Picks (Top 10):
- Patrick Cantlay (+240)
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.20 Units
Total Risk on Top 10: 0.50 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Harris English (+145)
- Risk 1.0 to win 1.45 Units
- Kevin Na (+310)
- Risk 0.50 to win 1.55 Units
Total Risk on Top 20: 1.50 Units
Picks (Matchups):
- Brian Harman (+100) over Jason Kokrak
- Risk 1.0 to win 1.0 Units
Total Risk on Matchups: 1.0 Unit
Total Risk on The WGC- St. Jude Invitational: 4.45 Units
Year to Date (PGA): +1.63 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
