We have Premier League action @ 3pm EST that leads perfectly into college football kickoff. Dip out of work early and hit up a happy hour spot, we have action! The start of the season has been rather mute in regards to record and units gained. There have been a ton of late goals and bounces not going our way; but looking for that variance to even out and possibly swing the other way. It is a very long season. Clubs are starting to settle in and identities are taking shape. We travel to King Power Stadium in Leicester, England to see if the home club can find their first win of the season.
Current PL Record: 27-27 +.81 Unit
Manchester United +110 2 Units and Under 3 -130 1 Unit
Today is the day we will finally see the big transfer-signing debut of Carlos Casemiro. The world-renowned midfielder was hopeful to make his season starting debut last week against Southampton, but ended up being subbed in the 80’ minute. As it looks now based on current news and media outlets he should get his first full go today. This could be the spark this club needs to cash in on the goal production they are lacking.
Currently Manchester United has only 3 goals they have produced, and 1 own goal on the entire season. Considering they are top 5 in their shot totals per 90 minutes with match average of 14 shots indicates they are under producing. Especially since of those 14 shots, 4.50 (6th highest) are landing on target and only yielding a 0.17 goal per shot on target (5th lowest). All this leads to their G-xG (goals-expected goals) of -2.2. In short, based on their shot production they are behind the pace of expected goals they should have. With the addition of the high praised player such as Casemiro in the midfield, one would think this would only help evening out this production that has not been able to find the net.
Using the same metrics we look at Leicester City who has been over producing correlated to their shot production. LC has been able to cash in on 5 goals themselves and had the help of 1 own goal at Arsenal. LC is the 4th lowest on the table with a 10.75 Shots per 90 minutes. Of those 10.75, 3.25 (6th lowest) have been on target. This is where we see an extreme jump from being the lowest in shot production to the 5th highest of Goals per shot on target of 0.38. They are simply overproducing and yielding more goals then they should for that current pace and have a G-xG of +1.8. Look to see some regression coming.
This is where we find our under. LC has given up the 3rd highest amount of goals this season with 10. Opponents vs. LC are producing the 4th lowest shot total per 90 minutes of 10.75. Of those 10.75 shots an average of 4 shots are on target, leading to a league high .23 goal per shot. Based on the minimal total shot production per 90 minutes correlated to the high amount of goals, LC is sitting at a G-xG of +4.4 goals. Combine the fact they are due to slow down scoring offensively along with slowing down opponents to find the back of the net I like the under.
With Man U due to break through and LC to regress offensively. I am looking for the spark of Casemiro to ultimately be a deciding factor as MU takes home a close match on the road. Match prediction 1-0 MU.
