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Wichita St at Tulane -6.5 (O/U 154.5)
3:00pm Eastern Start
The Shockers come off a home loss vs Memphis, where they led for most of the game. Memphis shot 54.7%, a category Wichita has been fairly successful this season. A top 25 defense in shooting %, at 40.3% per game, that number drops to a vigorous 39.9 on the road.
The Shockers will look to avenge an OT loss just a month ago at home vs the Green Wave, a game where they led by 16 at one point and a 5 point lead late in the contest. Tulane is a team who shoots at a high % and runs at a fast pace, Wichita St will try to counter that slowing the pace down, and limiting Tulane’s possessions. Luckily for the Shockers, Tulane averages a rock bottom 4.8 offensive rebounds a game, and has given up 10.2 steals a game in their L5.
Wichita St will need to shoot the ball well at points in this game to stay with Tulane, in their L5 games they are well over their season average of 44.0%, shooting at 50.8% a game in those five. The Shockers go on the road as dogs, and play the role well. They’re 8-0-1 ATS away, 8-4-1 ATS as dogs, 5-0-1 away vs teams over .500 and are 8-4 ATS away off of a loss.
I’ll be taking the Shockers in this spot, off of a loss and on the road they are 6-0 ATS! So let’s make this a UNIT UPGRADE!
Wichita St +6.5 (PointsBet -110) 1.25 units
Now let’s head to the NBA!
Toronto at Cleveland -7.5 (O/U 218)
6:00pm Eastern Start
The Raptors are 2-0 SU after the break, granted against lower levels of competition, but I beleive this team can hang with the higher ranks in the East. Toronto looks to sweep the season series vs the Cavs, being victorious in all three meetings this season. They come off a defensive victory vs the Pistons, where they only shot 37.5% from the field and 26.9% from three. Defense has been a focal point for this aggressive group, averaging 16.6 turnovers a game.
On ZERO days rest, the Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6, winning 4 outright all by 9+ points. They play this dog role well, they are 9-2 ATS as dogs of 3-7 points. Toronto has used its size to its advantage, averaging 29 free throw attempts per game in their L5. A category they can beat the Cavs with tonight.
The Cavs come into this affair on a bit of a down slide, losers of three straight. As well as going 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Why do I mention 5 instead of the last 4? Well that’s when things seemed to turn. They came off a dominant victory vs the Pelicans February 10th, and since then have struggled. They played the Bulls at home and were behind most of the game, they stumbled against San Antonio just getting by. Then they got outplayed in Philly, followed by blowing a big lead vs the Nuggets, followed up by giving up 59% shooting to Atlanta. More importantly, they have an overall good defense, but have given up 51% shooting and 43.6% from three in their last 5 games.
So this will be a strong UNIT UPGRADE for me on Toronto, as well we will sprinkle in a light ML play!
Raptors +7.5 (DraftKings -110) 1.75 units
Raptors ML +250 (DraftKings) 0.25 unit
Minnesota at Golden State -2.5 (O/U 233.5)
7:30pm Eastern Start
These two teams come into this contest shooting the ball very well, the T’Wolves averaging 50.1% in their L5 and the Warriors shooting almost 40% from three in their L5. Defense? Both teams in the bottom 1/3rd in quite a few categories, the one that stands out for Minnesota, they give up 12.6 offensive rebounds per game. Just showing undiscipline, now were going to give the Warriors extra possessions? Look out!
Both teams have a high assist rate of 30.0 and 26.8 per game, which in layman’s terms, leads to easy buckets. The T’Wolves come into this game, averaging 38.6% from three in their L5. Unfortunately for the Warriors giving up the 3 has been a problem recently, with teams shooting 41.6% from downtown.
This series has a tendency of going over, with a record of 8-1 to the over in the L9. Ironically the Warriors on 1 day rest, the over is 21-6-3. Like I said a few days ago, I will be betting over in the 1st half, since Minnesota has a tendency to slow down late. As well as, these two teams average 62.6 and 64.6 points per 1st half.
1H: over 120 (FanDuel -106) 1 unit
For anyone tailing, good luck and let’s rebound(literally and physically)!
