Adding two more, like them too much not to. Lowering unit size to proceed with caution.
Celtics +1 (-112), to win 1 unit
- This line has moved too much
- Best team in the NBA getting value
- They’ve handled their business in tough spots
- The Suns are very good defensively at home, but can any team totally limit Boston right now?
- I still have Boston favored by 2 points in this– too much value not to take
Kings/Bucks under 235.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
- Another huge total and even though the Kings routinely hit these, we should only bet overs on totals this big in unique situations
- The Bucks are healthier than they’ve ever been all season
- Giannis and Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday can clamp onto the Kings’ stars and limit their production
- Sabonis, in particularly, has a very difficult matchup against Lopez/Giannis tonight
- I think Milwaukee sees stopping the Kings’ offense as a personal challenge– UNDER
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Hornets +10 (-110), to win 1 unit
- This is too many points, period
- The Hornets have been playing better, keeping games close against elite teams like the Bucks, Clippers, Wizards, and solid wins against the Timberwolves and 76ers
- Charlotte seems to finally have more an identity– a try hard, more cohesive unit and plays over their heads because, well, they need to in order to keep up. They’re not turning it over, they’re collecting offensive boards, and their ball movement is cleaner
- I grade the Nets as slightly better than an average team, and the Hornets as 4 points worse than an average team right now
- Nets only have a +0.7 point differential
- Charlotte is -5.8, but most of that is b/c of their losing stretch in November, where they were murdered by teams over and over while they incurred myriad injuries
- Two eastern conference teams, it means something to Charlotte
- The Nets are capable of blowing out a team like the Hornets but they rarely do, and their lack of team chemistry (b/c of their selfish stars) is a more frequent factor
- I have Nets -6.5, that’s enough value for me.
- On an ordinary day, this would be a 1.5 unit play. Because of the way our bets are going lately, we’ll keep it at 1 unit
Bulls -5 (-110), to win 1 unit
- The Wizards will be without Bradley Beal for at least 3 games
- Now they’ll have to head on the road for a tough against a Chicago team that needs a win, although their three straight losses were all against formidable teams
- It might take a second for the Wizards to function at a high level without Beal in the rotation, and it’s hardly motivation knowing it’ll only be for a short amount of time
- This is a really comfy spot for Chicago; they’re next game will be at home and it isn’t until Saturday
- This is a good spot for the Bulls after 3 straight losses to feel better
- They’re only 4 points better than the Wizards in my power ratings but the spot has me adding extra value to Chicago. Beal also adds to the equation, which would make Chicago a solid 6-6.5 points better.
Thunder/Grizzlies over 232.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
- Both teams are very proficient scoring in the paint, lots of high % shots incoming
- OKC is the fastest team in the NBA their last 3 games
- They’re also a top 10 offense who’s learned how to thrive even without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in their lineup. With him back, OKC can bring the points and the pace, like usual
- Memphis runs faster and more explosive at home
- Their offense has been clicking, even when their stars are out
- I set this at 235 – taking the over
Celtics/Suns under 232.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
- This game means more to the Suns than it does to the Celtics. Phoenix is off a loss, wanting to prove they can hang with the league’s best.
- Phoenix’s defensive ratings go way up at home, even without CP3
- Boston probably has half of their focus on the Warriors, the team that defeated them in the NBA Finals, in their lookahead rematch on Saturday.
- Boston’s offense is beyond overdue for regression and I believe we started to see some of that Monday in a more inefficient night in Toronto. They still won, b/c those sumbitches are just that good.
- But when their offense is failing them more often, Boston can always turn it up on the defensive end
- I like how Boston’s defenders match up against Phoenix, and visa versa.
- Boston is more stout and physical, but the Suns are pests and like quick little bees. Both match up equally annoying to their opponent’s offense
- I have this at 222, so we have to go for more than 1 unit- LFG
