UFC 258 presents a decent card Saturday night and I’m here to set you up with what I think is some of the best value bets. Plenty of opportunity- Good luck!
Brian Kelleher (+195): Ricky Simon is fun to watch. He fights with reckless abandon and can fool his opponent into thinking he’s not technically sound, yet just over 3 weeks ago he showed his range with a dominant 2nd round win by submission over Gaetano Pirrello. Simon is relentless, intense, and does not retreat. Brian Kelleher fights with a more calculated aggression. Kelleher suffered a set-back loss last June against Cody Stamann but then got back in the win column against Ray Rodriguez in September. For my money, Kelleher is still underrated. With a pro record of 22-11, 35% by KO/TKO and 45% by submission, Kelleher can beat you in a lot of different ways. A complete fighter like the underdog Saturday night, who’s tactical but as fearless as the favorite, spells value to me. I’ll be on Kelleher to win.
Polyana Viana (+120): I’m not sure if I’ll bet this but there’s inherent value in Viana since this is an evenly matched contest. Mallory Martin, the favorite, is a young prospect in the UFC Women’s strawweight division. Viana has gone 1-3 in her UFC career, with her last victory coming by quick submission. Martin beat a struggling Hannah Cifers in her last fight, so I’m not sure how seriously I should take that win. Viana has the reach advantage and both fighters last fought in August 2020. If the always scrappy Viana can get this fight to the ground and look for a submission, she can win this fight.
Ian Heinisch (+180): Kelvin Gastelum has been through some wars. At his best we’ve seen him defeat the likes of Tim Kennedy and Michael Bisping, and he’s gone the distance with UFC stars Darren Till and Israel Adesanya. His last fight might’ve been his poorest performance. Jack Hermansson is a beast but Gastelum looked unmotivated and overwhelmed, losing the fight within 90 seconds of the first round. Ian Heinisch is a formidable opponent, capable of going the distance (50% of his fights have) and he has powerful striking ability, as we saw in his impressive 1st round TKO over Gerald Meerschaert last June. There’s an intangible about Heinisch that’s hard to describe, too. The Denver native trains out of Thailand, survived addiction and a stay at Riker’s Island in a previous life, and apparently tells every opponent he fights, “you just fought a future UFC champion.” There’s a toughness and resilience to Heinisch that I might be pretentiously overstating, or perhaps the young man is poised for a run. If Gastelum isn’t as desperate as he should be, I like Ian’s chances.
Maycee Barber (+105): It’s hard to find plus money on the underdog anymore as Maycee Barber has been steadily taking in money. One of the biggest prospects in female MMA has been through the ringer the past year, tearing her ACL and losing to the scrappy Roxanne Modafferi last January. Now that the whole world knows Roxanne a little better this isn’t entirely shocking, but Maycee was a huge favorite in that fight and now the books are selling her value. Maybe it’s a question of the ACL and Alexa Grasso is a very solid fighter, but Barber has tremendous upside and should be supremely motivated heading into UFC 258. The fact that this fight is right before the main event speaks to Barber’s star potential. It ain’t because of Grasso, I’ll tell you that. Unless she pulls another ligament, Barber has a very real strength and athleticism advantage and should overwhelm Grasso. This is my favorite pick and I expect this line to keep reversing in her favor. Take Maycee.
Kamaru Usman to win inside distance (+215): Usman is not superhuman, but he may be the closest thing we have in the fight-game. Riding a humble 16 fight win streak, Usman is, for our money, the most complete fighter in the UFC. Gilbert Burns is a formidable opponent in the sense that he’s well rounded and capable of big knockouts, but he’s not in the same class as Usman. Usman’s reach advantage will be a healthy 5 inches Saturday and that’s bad news for Burns. The underdog would have to catch Usman making a big mistake (which literally doesn’t happen) or fight perfectly to compete with the champ. Five rounds with these two studs feels like a long time, so why not take a shot at Usman ending the main event early. Usman is surely capable.
UFC 258 Parlay- Maverick, Muhammad, Maycee Barber and Usman (1 unit to win 4.5 units): Maverick looks like she could be a a star-in-the-making after her first UFC fight ended in an impressive stoppage win. Her opponent, Gillian Robertson, is a solid fighter but hasn’t been as active nor does she have the upside of Maverick. The young gun should take advantage of her position. Belal Muhammad is a -500 for a reason. He’s the far better fighter and his opponent hasn’t fought for 16 months. Take Muhammad with confidence. Check out my write-ups above on Barber and Usman for more intel on why they’re ideal parlay additions, too.
