UFC 258
Ian Heinisch vs Kelvin Gastalum -230
Kelvin Gastalum is a good fighter and has been around the block plenty of times for being only 29 years old but I feel like he has already peaked and can’t take it past that tier 2 fighter type level. Kelvin lost 4 of his last 6 fights and hasn’t really shown me anything. Ian Heinisch is also a good fighter and he might not be much better than Gastalum, but the price of this fight is what we are talking about. Ian has a nice record at 14-3 and his only 2 UFC losses were against some great competition going the distance with Derek Brunson and Omari Akhmedov. I think that both fighters can take some punches and Gastalum seems to be more susceptible to submission more than Ian is. The good news for Gastalum is that Ian doesn’t really win by submission which makes the chances of this fight increased to go the 3 round distance. Gastalum has never been knocked out but he certainly can lose at a decision. Ian has the better strike accuracy at 52% to 43% and he also has the better take down average at 1.18 per 15 minutes to .87. I think that the fight will go the distance and the -225 tells you that, but I also think that Ian can easily win this fight at the +190 price.
Ian to win the fight at +180 for 1.5 stars and take half that bet and take Ian Heinisch to win by decision at +350 at 1 star
Gilbert Burns vs Kamaru Usman -270
- If you like boring main events, well this one is for you. Kamaru Usman’s fighting style is very anti-climatic. He holds his opponents against the cage the whole fight and waits for the final bell of the last round.
- Usman at 17-1 hasn’t lost since 2013. He has an amazing reach at 76 inches even at 6 foot tall at 170 lbs. Burns is a good fighter at 19-3 and he is fighting very well with 6 wins in a row, but he isn’t a match for Usman. Burns won’t be able to really touch Usman him due to his speed. Usman is the Floyd Mayweather of the UFC right now.
- This fight is going the distance. I know this because in Usman’s last 11 fights, 9 have went the distance. Usman is too good of a fighter to get knocked out and Gilbert Burns has only been knocked out once in his career.
- Usman likes to win but he is smart about it. He isn’t going to go for the glory and instead he is going to pin burns against the cage like he does everyone else. This will be boring fight but Usman is the best at 170.
Take the fight going the distance at -140 for 2 stars and take Usman for the win by points at 1 star.
