Tonight we forget March Madness for UFC Madness with 3 title fights!!!
Megan Anderson vs Amanda Nunez -1200
I’ve been betting Amanda Nunez since she was about +250 vs Miesha Tate and Rhonda Rousey back in 2016 but those wonderful numbers are long gone. I haven’t seen any fighter live up to the matchup vs Amanda Nunez since then except for maybe Valentina Shevshenko. Megan Anderson is a nice fighter at 11-4 but Nunez has her in significant strikes per minute at 4.44 to 1.82 as well as take down average at 2.5 to .56. The price on this fight is just too high. You can possibly take a shot at Nunez by KO at +100 or Nunez wins by submission at +200 ish or decision at +450 and I have a premium play on that. One thing that I will say for Megan Anderson is that she has never been knocked out. Nunez in her past 2 fights has been more careful and more calculated. She went to decision in both of them. If Megan is smart, she stays away from Nunez as much as possible. 3 of Nunez’s last 5 fights have went to 3 round decisions. I think that this fight won’t end before round 3 and I will take the over 1.5 rounds.
Over 1.5 rounds (-130) – 2 stars
Israel Adesanya -230 vs Jan Blachowicz +195
This is going to be a great Main event. Israel Adesanya is fighting to be a double champion in weight classes Light Heavyweight to go with his Middle weight crown. Now there is a 20lb difference from middle weight to light heavyweight from 185 to 205 and I think that is a pretty big difference in my opinion. Israel is an awesome fighter. He uses his speed and skill to confuse his opponents. He is very slippery on the ground making it hard for fighters to keep hold of him. One thing that his doesn’t do in his 20 wins and 0 losses is win by submission. Adesanye has 15 KO/TKOs and 5 decisions. Four of his last seven fights actually went to decision. Three of them were five round fights. Jan Blachowicz is strong and he has really made a move to greatness since his loss in early 2019 to Thiago Santos. People were surprised that he beat Dominic Reyes like he did in the second round. Adesanya is the better striker at 4.1 SSLPM to 3.6 but Blachowicz has the better take down average at 1.1 to Adesanya is stepping up in weight class which makes me concerned for him here but I still think that Jan is going to give a max effort to keep his title. As of right now, I think that the best look is the over 2.5 rounds at -140. I think that Jan is smart enough not to get into a stand up fight with Israel and and I could see this fight going to the ground. out of Jan’s 35 fights, 15 of them have went to decision. From a price perspective on this fight, I think that Israel is getting expensive for such a big move up in weight. If this thing gets to +220 or better, I will play Jan Blachowicz.
Over 2.5 rounds -140 – 2 stars
Aljamain Sterling vs Petyr Yan -120
I looked hard at this fight and I really think it is pretty evenly matched. Yan just got his title by beating up Jose Aldo last summer in July and he should be very motivated to keep his title. Sterling definitely deserves the number 1 contender designation here being that he has beaten some of the best and hasn’t lost since catching a knee to the jaw in 2017 vs Marlon Moraes. The thing for me here is that even though this is a 5 round title fight, I do not think either of these fighters will win within the distance. Both of them are smart with a great ground game. From a side perspective, I think that Yan has the slight advantage landing 6.3 significant strikes per minute to 4.3. Both have great floor games. I also think that Sterling can be a little more unpredictable and erratic. I like this fight going to decision and I also like Yan getting the W here.
Fight goes to decision +120 – 1.5 stars
Yan wins the fight -120 – 1 star
