What an amazing card for this Saturday’s UFC 259! You better believe it’ll be streaming it on my big-screen. Here are my best value bets for this momentous event:
Dominick Cruz (+105): “The Dominator” used to own the bantamweight division but after a long layoff and then a recent loss to Henry Cejudo, which is certainly nothing to be ashamed of, Cruz hasn’t won since 2016. Make no mistake about it, Cruz is poised to return to his old ways. He’s beaten legends of the octagon like Uriah Faber, TJ Dillashaw, and Demetrius “Mighty Mouse” Johnson. This line is begging you to take Kenny at a reduced underdog price for Cruz. It’s sneaky. Casey Kenny is a reputable fighter worthy of being a slight favorite Saturday night. He’s on a nice little 3 fight win streak, but his wins aren’t against any martial artists worth celebrating. Dominick Cruz has sensational lateral movement, elite timing, and moves at a pace that Kenny hasn’t seen before. This is a great price on a legendary fighter who still has the wind and moxie to win. Bet “The Dominator.”
Joseph Benavidez (+110): Benavidez was one of my favorite betting picks before his gruesome losses to Deiveson Figueiredo. Deemed by multiple announcers and fighters as one of the nicest guys in UFC, Benavidez has an unbelievable gas tank that’s been virtually unmatched until those two losses to the current flyweight champ. Askar Askarov is a gifted fighter with a great ground game, but I don’t think he’s as dominant as it seems. Benavidez has feasted on the Askarov archetype and I think it’s a great matchup for him to get back in the win column. Reluctant to start thinking about retirement, it’s obvious Benavidez still has the gusto to keep his future title chances alive. Bet on my boy Joseph.
Petr Yan (-120): I’m a big Petr Yan guy and I think this is a crazy low price for his first title defense. The Russian native has compiled a 7-0 record in the UFC and brings his 10-fight winning streak on the line when he defends his bantamweight title on Saturday. Aljamain Sterling is a great fighter and even better submission artist. He deserves this title fight after a long journey, but I can’t step in front of Yan here. Yan is a very complete fighter who overwhelms his opponents with pace. He has landed 284 more significant strikes than his foes through his 7 UFC fights, has a striking differential of +3.07, which is 1st among all bantamweights in UFC history, and also ranks 2nd in knockdown average. He hides his ability to submit and grapple but it’s there– he won by guillotine choke in his 3rd professional bout in 2015. He’ll be ready for Sterling. It may seem like I’m undermining and underestimating Sterling. I’m not, and he’s surely capable of dominating Yan on the ground. Petr Yan just gives us no reason to question him. He’s been an absolutely dominate fighter since arriving at the UFC and I don’t think Sterling is dynamic enough to stop him. Unless it’s against Henry Cejudo, I’m not sure if anyone can dethrone Yan for a long time. I think we’re looking at a true hall of famer in Yan and that’ll be on full display Saturday.
Megan Anderson (+650) and Anderson/Nunes over 1.5 rounds (-120): Is it likely that Megan Anderson will beat Amanda Nunes? Hell no. Assuming you know who Nunes is, who most experts call the greatest female UFC fighter of all time, that answer is always “no,” regardless of who her opponent is. But are there reasons to believe Anderson can pull it off? Yes. We won’t review Nunes in detail because we know about the “Lioness.” Megan Anderson is a complete fighter and she’ll have a true size advantage Saturday, one Nunes has never faced. She stands at 6 feet tall (Nunes is 5’8″) and she’ll own a 3.5 inch reach advantage. I also think she’s the hardest hitter Nunes has ever faced. With respect to Cris Cyborg, Anderson’s big frame and background in kickboxing/boxing bring a serious amount of striking skill to the octagon. There’s a ton of power coming behind those shots. Lastly and not to be overlooked– I really like how gritty Anderson is. She fights with fire and ferocity and I doubt she’ll be intimidated by Nunes. Her battle against Holly Holms 2 years ago was a good foreshadowing, as she very nearly beat the world-champion boxer and walked her down throughout the contest. Remember when Holly Holmes knocked out the untouchable Ronda Rousey? Holms approached that fight with the same calculated confidence and she was a similarly priced underdog (I think Holms was at +800). Everyone thought her winning was impossible, too. This line is just too juicy to not take a shot. Nunes is a lioness, not a goddess.
We’re taking the over 1.5 rounds because it’s a misnomer that Nunes ends most of her fights in TKO fashion. Sure, some of her most famous bouts have ended that way (her less than one minute TKO of Ronda Rousey sticks out), but Nunes’ fights routinely go beyond 2 rounds. In fact, her last two fights went the entire 5 rounds. Both fighters should approach each other cautiously out of respect for the other’s knockout capability. The over makes the most sense at a cheap price.
Jan Blachowicz wins (+190): This pick is all about pure polish power. Anyone who’s fought in any sort of boxing or MMA competition knows that Eastern Europeans just hit different (I have a ton of EE in my blood and I box, so yea maybe I’m a homer here). Jan Blachowicz is a great story. In 2017, after losing 4 of his first 6 UFC Fights, Jan turned his career around with steady improvements and won 8/9 of his next battles. That included 5 stoppages. Fast forward to his show-down with Dominick Reyes last year, where Jan crushed Reyes and ended the bout in a second round TKO, earning the title of light heavyweight champion and solidifying this huge showdown against Israel at UFC 259. Israel Adesanya is a mega star at this point, obliterating everyone in his path in the Middleweight Division. He’s bested names like Whittaker, Costa, Brunson, Romero, and the Anderson Silva. If he wins Saturday night, he would overtake Connor McGregor as the youngest champ-champ ever. It’s hard not to love Israel. He’s entertaining, well-spoken, and at times seems like a real-life untouchable ninja. He made Paulo Costa look silly in his last main event. So why do I like Jan? Blachowicz will weigh in at 205 but he’ll be much bigger than Israel when the first bell rings. And what people don’t know about the polish puncher is he’s also really skilled at takedowns and grappling. He has a ton of wins by submission and he’s a skilled take-down artist. The combination of his unique arsenal and assertive physical presence will, in my opinion, give him opportunities that Israel has never had to defend before. And as we all know, it only takes one good landing from the Polish powerhouse to get a knockout win. Israel is a world class martial artist but fighting in a different weight class is no joke. Connor learned the hard way the first time he switched and I think Adesanya does, too. I’ll take the dynamic, more imposing fighter for + money.
