Anthony Smith vs Jimmy Crute -200
There is a good chance we will se a submission this fight. Jimmy Crute is a young and hungry 28 year old and his 11 wins were by 5Kos, 4 Submissions and 3 decisions. He only has 1 loss by submission. Anthony Smith is a seasoned fighter at 32 years old with 34 wins and 16 losses. He only went to decision 5 times in his career or 1/8 of his fights. Smith loses mainly by KO at 9 times in his career, but he also has been submitted 4 times himself. When Smith wins its 18 Kos and 13 submissions and only 2 decisions. Both of these fighters have a good ground game but Crute is the better technical fighter landing 4.36 significant strikes per minute to Allen’s 2.94. Crute also will take you down at 4.33 take downs per 15 minutes to Allen’s .49. Now some of these stats are skewed due to Allen being in the UFC much longer since 2016 but the deviation here is still significant. The Odds slightly say at -145 that the fight isn’t going to go to decision, but if it happens to go to decision I think Crute wins due to his technical fighting and take down advantage for scoring points. Anthony Smith hasn’t knocked anyone out since 2018 and has went 6 fights since then. I think if he wins, it would definitely be by submission. Smith could win this fight if he catches Crute in a compromising situation. I think the best play is to take Crute for the win but also take both fighters to win by submission at +700 each for a total of about 2/5ths of your Crute bet. This way, you are up 1 unit if Smith wins by Submission and you are up 4.5 Units if Crute wins by submission. If Crute just wins by decison or KO/TKO/DQ, then it is a wash. It Smith wins this fight by KO or Decision then I will tip my cap and eat the 3 units.
Anthony Smith by submission +700 – .5 star
Jimmy Crute by submission +700 – .5 star
Anthony Crute to win at -200 – 2 stars
Rose Namajunas vs Weili Zhang -210
This fight is interesting to me because I actually think that Rose Namajunas is underrated. Let’s face it, Weili has pretty much OWNED the straw weight class at an amazing 20-1 record. The only fight that she has ever lost was her first one back in China in 2013 which we really can not count against her. The interesting thing to me is that even though fighters of this weight usually go to decision, both of these fighters fights usually end before that. Out of Weile’s 21 fights, there has only been 4 decisions and there has been 5 decisions out of 13 fights for Rose’s bouts. In saying this, I really do not see a ton of weakness for Weili and she usually controls all of her fights. I think Weili wins but I also think that it very much could be within the distance. I’ll grab Zhang within the distance at +195
Zhang within the distance +195 – 1 star
Karl Roberson vs Brendan Allen -155
This fight is another interesting one to me because it also has submission written all over it. Karl Roberson is 9-3 and his only losses where him getting submitted 3 times. He seems to get caught rather easily. Most of his wins were by submission as well but I think he is stepping up to a better fighter in Brendan Allen. Allen is 15-4 with 5 KOs, 8 Submissions and 2 decisions. I am going to take a shot that Allen catches Roberson in the ground game wide open. The odds kinda tell you that it is quite plausible being only +175
Brendon Allen to win by Submission +175 – 1 star premium shared
