Dustin Poirier vs Connor McGregor +110
Ahhhhh Macgleggga. Why are you such a showman? Or is it a clown after trying to kick DP in the press conference? And why are you ranked 5th in the lightweight class when Dustin ranked 1st? The odds certainly don’t show it this way. Let’s be honest. We never go by UFC rankings for odds unless we are using them to try and fade a favorite, but I think that this fight has some betting potential. Let’s look at the facts here. Connor McGregor is a legend and there are only few fighters that were better than him throughout his career. He has been the best for some of time but Khabib eventually put the lid on that and then went sailing into the sunset in his prime. Connor beat Dustin in the first round back in 2014 and that was part of the reason that McGregor was a massive -320 favorite vs Dustin when he lost to him just this past January. Well the tables have turned right now, and DP has obviously become a much better fighter, but what does that mean about this line? Dustin is a short favorite as I am typing this and I expect it to even out once again getting closer to the fight time. My biggest concern for McGregor is his jaw. Even at 32 years of age, he seemed venerable after Poirier struck him somewhat softly a few times and then finished him on the ground. It was Connor’s first knockout. In saying that, Dustin has been knocked out himself a few times but you have to go way back to 2016 for that. Let’s cut to the chase here. No reason to go over stats too much. Let’s just point out that both fighters have outstanding stand-ups landing around 5.5 significant strikes per minute, but Dustin has the better ground game with 7 all time submissions. I do not think that grappling will be much of a factor being that Dustin hasn’t submitted anyone since 2017. Due to this, I think that the under 2.5 rounds is certainly the prop that I am looking at being that time won’t be wasted on the ground. In their last 2 fights, neither of them even got to the 3rd round. In Dustin’s last 8 fights, 4 of them went under 2.5 round and in Connor’s last 11 fights, 9 of them didn’t get past the 2.5 rounds. Dustin is poised and ready to strike when he sees an opening and Connor is very emotional and will try and go for the kill early. I think that Dustin knows this and might even use that against Connor and that is why I will be waiting for a better number to bet on Dustin Poirier a few hours before the fight. In the mean time, grab the under 2.5 rounds.
Under 2.5 rounds -125 – 2 stars
Wait for a better number on Dustin. At least -115 for 1 star or pass.
Yana Kunitskaya vs Irene Aldana -115
This matchup is in the Bantamweight class of 135 lbs. I am really looking forward to this fight. Yana is a very motivated fighter who seems to be getting better and better after every bought. She has won 4 of her last 5 fights which is impressive. Yana is 31 years old and is 14-5 throughout her MMA career. Her opponent in Irene Aldana is an up and coming fighter from Mexico. She is 33 years old at 12-6, and her last fight was against a different blond in Holly Holm. Irene lost that fight by decision but there is certainly is no shame in losing to Holly being that she would beat both of these fighters any day of the week and twice on Sunday, but what I see in Yana is a more experienced fighter with a better price here. Kunitzkaya has mainly legit losses going all the way back to Tonya Evinger back in 2017 and she also has the better accuracy in her punches at an amazing 73% SSLPM to 43% for Aldana. Yana is also better at take downs at 1.62 per 15 minutes to Irene’s .23. I think that the wrong fighter is favored here. Grab Yana.
Yana Kunitskaya -105 – 1.5 star
Driscus Du Plessis vs Trevin Giles -105
This fight stuck out to me just due the fact that the odds are almost even and the fact that there is a prop angle that stands out. Driscus Du Plessis is 15-2 in MMA but has only 1 UFC fight so far while Trevin Giles is 14-2 in MMA and 5-2 in the UFC. Both Fighters are young at 28 and 27 years old respectively. Now Driscus is an in-your-face fighter who rarley gets to the 3rd round while Giles seems to live in the 3rd round with 6 of his last 7 fights getting there. The interesting thing to me is that Trevin’s only 2 losses have been by submission and most of Driscus’s wins have been by submission with 9 of them and 6 KOs. None were decision. I think it is worth taking a shot at Driscus by submission here for a half unit.
Driscus Du Plessis to win by submission +500 – .5 stars
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