UFC 265 is here! The interim heavyweight championship is on the line as the ferocious KO power of Derrick Lewis collides with the intimidating and well-rounded Ciryl Gane. The card takes place from Houston, Lewis’ hometown, in front of what should be a raucous crowd and a fantastic card. Here are my favorite bets:
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Vincente Luque/Michael Chiesa Does NOT Go the Distance (-105), 1.5 units: This should be a really great battle between two evenly matched fighters (it’s virtually a pick-em for a reason). And even though it’s only 3 rounds, my money’s on the fight NOT going the distance. Vincente Luque has thrived in the UFC. His only losses over the last 5 years were to Leon Edwards and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson– certainly nothing for any fighter to hang their head over. Carrying a 13-3 welterweight record into UFC 265, Luque has won 18 of his 20 professional fights before the final bell. That’s pretty astounding. Whether it by TKO/KO punches/kicks or whether it’s by a sneaky submission, Luque has a unique arsenal of ways that he can beat you. The longer and bigger fighter is no doubt Michael Chiesa. His move up to the 170 pound division in 2018 has proven successful, especially after 2 dominant decision wins against Rafael dos Santos and Neil Magny. I like the fight to end early for one simple reason– Luque aggressively pushes the pace on offense but lacks defensive prowess (although that often doesn’t seem to matter, the man has a steel chin). Chiesa has a distinct size advantage reminiscent of Wonderboy and the cardio to surprise even the most gifted fighters if they get too close. Luque will control the pace (which will be rapid, no doubt) and Chiesa won’t be shy to respond. One way or the other, I don’t foresee these two fighters expression any sort of caution. I’m on the distance.
Pedro Munhoz (-108), 1.5 units: I’m going to cut this one short and sweet because I’ve been up writing/researching since 5:30am and I’m (expletive) exhausted. Jose Aldo looks good at bantamweight but I just wasn’t very impressed by his victory over Marlon Vera. Munhoz has been around longer in this division and he’s faced considerably better opponents. Aldo may look to land precision kicks and punches early, which is his modus operandi, but he’ll be more cautious against Munhoz and I don’t think it’ll bode well for him in the long run. Munhoz has a “well-rounded offense, sporting five knockouts and eight submissions in 19 wins, (and) Munhoz is also one of the more durable bantamweights in the division, with all five losses coming by way of decision.” (MMAMania.com) After two straight losses to two of the best in the division in Frankie Edgar and Aljamain Sterling, Munhoz’s last win against Jimmy Rivera was the redemption he needed. I think he keeps that momentum going into this fight and steals a victory from Aldo in the later rounds.
Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO (+300), 2 units: If the “Black Beast” is going to win this fight and lay claim to the interim heavyweight belt, it’s going to be by TKO/KO (okay, he had 1 submission win earlier in his career but come on, let’s be real). This is an absurd number on a knockout master and that’s why I’m putting more than my usual unit-allocation on it– it’s simply an opportunity I can’t pass up. Lewis has been ascending the heavyweight ranks for quite some time now. After tough losses to Junior Dos Santos and Daniel Cormier back in 2018/2019, Lewis has now won 4 bouts in a row. He also beat the current #1 heavyweight in Francis Ngannou (albeit probably a different version of Ngannou but still, that’s impressive). Ciryl Gane has put together an impressive history of wins, too. Having never lost in his professional career (9-0-0), Gane has laid waste to names like Volkov, Dos Santos, Rozenstruik, and Boser. His terrifying size and power is complimented by an agile and clever approach– he has a distinct way of avoiding big shots while he picks apart his opponents with his long reach and exceptional movement. As skilled as Gane is, his chin has never really been tested.
If you’ve followed Lewis’ career you know he’s as tough as it gets. Unless you submit or knockout the Black Beast, it’s unlikely you’ll secure a victory. In this way I think Gane has a style that could favor Lewis. Gane will look to keep his distance and survey the bigger cage; Lewis will be marching forward with ferocity. In front of a home crowd and apparently after his best training camp yet, I have to believe that Lewis will be the best version of himself tonight. Over 5 rounds, I’m willing to lay 2 units that Derrick will catch the undefeated Gane in a spot the younger contender isn’t expecting and that’ll be all – she – wrote. My money is on Lewis in H-Town!
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