UFC 266 Free Plays – Sports Betting

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Brian Ortega vs Alexander Volkanovski -185

Sometimes you just have to bet on ugly.   This is going to be a great featherweight main event between top contender Brian Ortega and Champion Alexander Volkanovski and I expect some fireworks.  Neither of these fighters like each other all that much and they have been taking jabs at each other over the last few months.  Let’s look at how these guys match up.  Alexander is 32 years old and 5’6 wearing hiking boots.  He has some long arms for his size at 71″ reach.  Volk is trained in Greco-Roman wrestling and kick boxing.  Brian Ortega is 30 years old and 5’9 with a 69″ reach.   He is well trained as a black belt in jiu-jitsu and has some of the best standup and ground game in his weight-class.   Now the handicap on this fight for me is about points and strikes.  Volkanovski is short and stocky with a long reach.  He averages 6 significant strakes per minute to Brian Ortega’s 4.29 respectively.  Alexander is also better at take downs 2.09 per 15 minutes to .8 for Ortega.  Now Volk has faced some of the best fighters in his class and I do not think that Ortega can get the submission that he might need to win this fight.  Vokanovski is just too good on the ground, too powerful, and he has almost no neck with a small head making it hard for fighters to submit him.  He should be able to get out of compromising situations.   I think this fight is about the points and Volkanovski has the best leg kicks in the sport.   As a fan I want Ortega to win but sometimes our pocket-book doesn’t agree.   I am going to grab the champion here and I think that there is a small chance that the belt will flip if it goes to decision.  Alexander wins ugly by points.

Alexander Volkanovski -185 – 2.5 stars

Other Plays:

Valentina Shevchenko by KO/TKO/DQ -120 1.5 star – Ok, this is another 5 round championship bout between a seasoned champion in Valentina and a gap filler in Lauren Murphy.  Lauren is a good fighter but she is no match for the best technical fighter in the sport in my opinion.  Valentina can do it all and her price says it at -1500.  Now even though Murphy has never been submitted or knocked out, I think that she will lose this fight by KO being that this is going 5 rounds and Valentina should be able to bludgeon her some.  The problem with Murphy is that she will not take this fight to the ground because it will be end up pretty bad for her as Shevchenko has the massive advantage on the mat.   I think we see a KO and if Murphy can go the distance, I am going to pay to see it.

Omar Morales -150 – 2 stars – Johnathan Pierce is coming into this fight at 10-4 with a ton of knockouts but he hasn’t faced anyone with a pulse as of yet.  Morales has went the distance with Giga Chikadze whome I think is the number 1 contender in the featherweight division.  Omar at 15-1 has the better ground game if his standup fails him and he will use it if needed.   I will grab the battle tested fighter here in the first bout of the day.

 

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Kiev O'Neil: 20+ years of sports betting experience. Podcast host since 2017. College Football since 2019 412-367-27 UP 58.7U NFL since 2018 249-228-16 up 40U UFC since 2019 82-74-5 up 34.1U I do not necessarily look at myself as being a so called “sharp” sports bettor. Instead I like to think of myself as a great compiler of information who specializes in the Big 10, but also handicaps all NFL, NCAA football, UFC, Basketball, Horse Racing and more! I encourage people to specialize in a conference or division that will help give them the greatest edge in their sports wagers. I am never against a person betting against their favorite teams when the situation is right.