Cyril Gane vs Francis Ngannou +125 O/U 2.5 rounds
The fight of the decade is finally upon us and and the winner becomes the baddest man on this planet. Let’s take a look at these two. Starting with Francis. What else can I say about him? Every time he fights, I have to have some sort of bet on him because he wins. His record might be perfect had he not had a bit of a back injury when he lost by decision to Derek Lewis and Stipe Miocic back in 2018. Since then, Francis hasn’t even went past 1.5 rounds with his opponents. This is where I see some value by the way and it’s not what you think. Now Francis is a little bit older at 35 years but I would not say that he is past his prime. He has 12 KO’s 4 submissions and his only losses were 3 decisions. Cyril Gane on the other hand came in with a lot of hype and has lived up to it. He is every bit as tall as Francis at 6’4 but he weighs about 10 LBs less at 247 lbs to 257 lbs for Francis and has a 2 inch reach disadvantage. Gane is undefeated at 10-0 and his last two fights with Lewis and Volkov showed that he’s a true contender. Now the fighting styles of both of these guys are pretty similar except for the fact that Gane is the better technical fighter and sometimes waits for his opponents to come in where he can counter punch and do a lot of damage. Ngannou is more of a bull but that somewhat plays into Gane’s hands and that is why he is a -155 favorite. Now the one thing that I mentioned earlier is that Francis finishes his fights fast, but I had not mentioned that Gane doesn’t finish fast and is more Methodical. Cyril likes to stick and move while counter punching gaining points and in no hurry to finish a fight. This is why his fight with Volkov went 5 rounds and his fight with Lewis went over 2.5 rounds. Let’s face it, Francis isn’t stupid and he knows all too well that he could get knocked out by Gane, and I do not think he will be in any hurry to rush in early until later in the fight where he could be desperate. There is so much on the table for this fight and I think that Gane wins, but the value is now gone past the -150. Instead I like the over 2.5 rounds at -110.
Over 2.5 Rounds – 1.5 stars
Bonus Play – Cody Stamann +170 – 1.5 stars – Said Nurmogomedov at 14-2 is coming in with too much hype. He has only fought 4 UFC fights and pretty much all tier 3 guys. Cody Stamann’s strength of schedule at 19-4-1 is much better fighting many top 10 guys and even taking Yadong Song to a draw. Don’t be fooled by the name Nurmogomedov and take the value with Cody at +170.
