UFC 316: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison -625 O/U 4.5
The co-main event of UFC 316 features a highly anticipated women’s bantamweight title fight between reigning champion Julianna Peña and two-time Olympic judo gold medalist Kayla Harrison. Tonight’s bout takes place at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, and is generating major buzz due to the fighters’ contrasting backgrounds, styles, and the high stakes involved.
Fighter Profiles
- Julianna Peña (13-5, 8-3 UFC)
- Former two-time UFC bantamweight champion
- Known for her aggressive pace, pressure, and strong clinch work
- Has solid transitional grappling and effective ground striking
- Notable wins include her shocking upset over Amanda Nunes
- Kayla Harrison (18-1, 2-0 UFC)
- Two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo
- Former PFL champion with dominant grappling skills
- Steadily improving striking, particularly from her southpaw stance
- Holds wins over Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira in the UFC
Fight Breakdown
Peña enters as a significant underdog, with odds ranging from +400 to +500, while Harrison is the overwhelming favorite at -625 to -800. The betting lines suggest that Harrison is expected to dominate, particularly in the grappling exchanges.
Peña’s best chance lies in making the fight a brawl, as Harrison has acknowledged that chaotic exchanges could favor the champion. However, Harrison’s superior clinch work and takedown ability make it unlikely that Peña will be able to dictate the fight’s pace.
Harrison’s most probable path to victory is through her grappling dominance. She has a strong positional game, particularly from half guard, and has shown an ability to control opponents with relentless pressure. Peña, while tough and resilient, has struggled against elite grapplers in the past, but she hasn’t been submitted since 2020.
Prediction
I liked Pena’s resilience that she has shown over the past few years against Amanda Nunes. While she will not win the striking or grappling battle, she can last the full five rounds and has proved it over her last four fights. I think that Harrison probably gets the win, but at the same time, she has only finished one out of her last four opponents. Harrison wins by decision more often than not, but let’s take the safe rout over 4.5 rounds.
Over 4.5 rounds +154 – 1 star
Bonus Play: Ariane De Silva +425 – 1 star – Ariane Da Silva (formerly Ariane Lipsky) came in a whopping six pounds overweight. I have to assume that she didn’t even really try to cut that much, and will have the weight advantage during this fight. Cong Wang mistakenly accepted the fight even though she will be smaller individule. Da Silva has a huge strength of opponent advantage over Cong, and she can fight both on her feet as well as on the mat. This number is much too big to pass up.
