Alexander Volkov vs Alistair Overeem +170
It’s the main event and we have two very seasoned heavyweights here who have been through all out wars. Overeem is the elder at 40 years of age and Volkov is still in his prime at 32. Overeem is 47-18 with 25 KOs, 17 Submissions and 5 decision while Volkov is 32-8 with 21 KOs, 3 submissions and 8 decisions. Volkov is a very tall man at 6’7 265 and Overeem is 6’4 252. Both of these fighters are strikers looking for the knockout and that is why you see it juiced to within the distance. The key thing that sticks out to me is that both fighters have beaten some of the best in the business and both fighters just could not get to the next level of champion. For me this fight is all about the price. Volkov over his last 5 fights has 3 good wins and 2 losses to great competition in Curtis Blaydes and Derek Lewis Overeem has 4 wins and 2 loss in his last 6 to Jairzinho Rozenstruik which is completely acceptable and also Curtis Blaydes. This fight to me is about the price. I think that these fighters are closely matched but the age factor is what pushed Overeem up to +170. I watched Alistair’s last fight vs an up and coming Augusto Sakai and I was impressed on how he was able to get him to the ground when needed. Can he do that vs Volkov? His take down game is definitely better at 1.44 per 15 minutes to Volkov’s .2 per 15. I think that if Overeem can get this fight to the ground then he will have the advantage. If Volkov can keep him at bay using his height as leverage then he will win the fight. I think the price of this fight should be +120 for Overeem to -140 for Volkov. I’ll take the dog here.
Alistair Overeem +170 – 1 star
Clay Guida vs Michael Johnson -220
These two fighters are squaring off here and like the main event, both of them have a lot of history. Michael Johnson is just an average fighter at 19-16. He is 3-11 in his last 11 fights and it feels to me like he is just in it for a paycheck even at 34 years old. Clay Guida is also a pretty average fighter who has been around forever at 39 years old and he is still going strong. Clay is 35-20 and somehow is able to go the distance against a lot of good fighters. The key thing for me in this bout is that both of these fighters have good jaws with only two KO losses a piece in all of those fights. The other thing that sticks out to me is that these fighters haven’t summitted anyone since 2 presidents ago. What this tells me is that this fight should easily go 3 rounds and I am not afraid to lay a few at -180 to see it happen.’
Fight goes the distance -180 – 2 stars
