UFC Fight Night 189 Free Plays – Sports Betting

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Ilir latifi vs Tanner Boser -190

I am looking forward to this fight due to the contrast of styles.   Tanner Boser looks like he just came out of the Rusty Spur Saloon looking for a bar fight while Ilir Latifi looks like a Nose Tackle for San Diego State.  Boser is a Stand up fighter who is 29 years old with a 19-7 record.  He only beats his opponents by decision or KOs.  Latifi is all about the ground game at 37 years old.  Latifi will occasionally KO someone but hasn’t done that since 2016.   I see value in the derivative market here.  If Tanner Boser wins, I think that it means he knocked out Latifi who has been susceptible to it.   The price is at -190 for a straight win but +210 for the KO/TKO/DQ.  If Latifi wins this fight, it most likely means that this fight went the distance being that Boser has never been submitted.   I think Latifi tries to get points and win a strategic fight.  The price on Latifi by decision is a nice +350.   Gonna play both sides here and hope for the bigger price to come through.

Ilir Latifi by decison +350 – 1 star

Tanner Boser by KO/TKO/DQ +210 – 1 star

Augusto Sakai vs Jairzinho Rosenstruik -120

This should be a great main event.  Sakai is an up and coming fighter who has done extremely well at the heavyweight division.  His only UFC loss was his last fight vs Alistair Overeem and I think that he was winning that fight until he got rolled to the ground in the 5th round.  That fight was Sakai’s only loss by KO and he has an amazing 15-2-1 MMA record at 30 years old.   Jairzinho Rosenstruik is one of my favorite fighters because he has a fantastic stand up game and seems to take out the trash when he goes against tier 2 fighters, but something changed with him since he got KO’d in 20 seconds vs Francis Ngannou.  Rosenstruik recently fought a top contender in Cyril Gane and decided to play possum the whole match and eventually lost by the points.  Jairzinho can knock out anyone, but he is now fighting with a bit more care and is worried about his jaw.  Being that Jairzinho is now a bit more timid, and he knows that this fight is 5 rounds, I think there is a very legitimate chance that this fight goes past round 3.  Sakai has a great jaw and I expect him to respect Rosenstruik’s stand up.   I am taking the over 2.5 rounds

Over 2.5 rounds -105 – 2.5 stars

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Kiev O'Neil: 20+ years of sports betting experience. Podcast host since 2017. College Football since 2019 412-367-27 UP 58.7U NFL since 2018 249-228-16 up 40U UFC since 2019 82-74-5 up 34.1U I do not necessarily look at myself as being a so called “sharp” sports bettor. Instead I like to think of myself as a great compiler of information who specializes in the Big 10, but also handicaps all NFL, NCAA football, UFC, Basketball, Horse Racing and more! I encourage people to specialize in a conference or division that will help give them the greatest edge in their sports wagers. I am never against a person betting against their favorite teams when the situation is right.

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