Isaac Villanueva vs Marcin Prachnio -200
This fight really stuck out to me. This is the light heavyweight class so you know the sparks will by flying. Marcin Prachnio is 32 years old and 14-5 with 10 KOs, 1 Submission and 3 decisions while Isaac Villanueva is 37 years old, 18-11 with 15 KOs and 3 decisions. What’s obvious is that Prachnio is a 1-2 paying favorite here and will most likely win this fight. In Marcin’s last 9 fights, 7 of them did not get past the first round. This is due to his bulldog type fighting style where is isn’t afraid to sacrifice his jaw to try and get an early knockout. When Marcin stepped up in competition, he was KO’d by borderline tier 1 / tier 2 fighters. Marcin is a tier 2 fighter himself. Isaac Villanueva has been KO’d by worse fighters and that is why he is the dog. Isaac has a straight up fighting style and has never submitted anyone in his career. As a matter of fact, Isaac’s last 7 fights were all KOs that didn’t make it half way through the fight. I think what I am getting at should be quite obvious by now. Marcin towers over Ike in significant strikes landed per minute at 5.4 to 3.6 respectively. The question is, can I trust Marcin’s jaw at -200? Not at that price but I will take that juicy plus money on the under 1.5 rounds.
Under 1.5 rounds +135 – 2.5 star
Raoni Barcelos vs Timur Valiev +180
15-2 Timur Valiev’s nickname is “lucky” which he was very lucky in his first UFC debut 2 fights ago when he knock knocked out hard by Trevin Jones only for the fight to be called a no contest due to a failed marijuana drug test afterwards from Jones. Timur is actually a weight class above Bamtam but decided to cut weight to try this weight class for the first time. Timur’s only UFC win was from beating Martin Day who really didn’t belong. Raoni Barcelos is a very up and coming fighter even at age 34. He has 16 wins and only 1 loss a long time ago in the beginning of his career. Raoni is 5-0 in UFC contention. Now both fighters have pretty equal stats when it comes to take downs and strikes but I believe that Raoni faced the stiffer competition being in the UFC longer. Looking at the way that these fighters fight, I have to give the edge to Raoni Barcelos who is also a very strong favorite but I also think that this fight does go the distance. 6 of Timur’s last 9 fights have went to decision while Raoni’s last 2 fights went to decision and he should have a tougher time knocking out Timur being that Timur “technically” has never been knocked out. Over 2.5 rounds in this fight is -225 and that makes me comfortable taking the Barcelos to win by decision at +125 rather than the fight in general at -225.
Barcelos to win by decision at +125 – 2 stars
