I know I know, everyone loves Leon Edwards. I do too, I promise. According to many experts, Leon is the most underrated and dangerous commodity in the UFC. He enters tonight on an 8 fight win streak and he’s defeated some of the best Welterweights in the world: Rafael dos Anjos, Gunnar Nelson, and a younger Donald Cerrone. His only loss since 2015? Kamaru Usman. Usman will be a UFC Hall of Famer and may be one of the best UFC fighters of all time when the dust settles. Not a bad loss for Leon. Still, I like the underdog tonight. Why? In short, I’m worried that Edwards’ long layoff might hurt him and he may underestimate Muhammad. Hence, I see value on the dog. And we like value.
Posting the same record as Edwards at 18-3 overall, Belal Muhammad is on a tear right now and at age 32, it’s obvious he’s in his prime. He’s also HUNGRY. The sunglass wearing “Remember the Name” Muhammad just fought a month ago, dominating Dhiego Lima, a skilled striker who had a significant reach advantage and came into UFC 258 on a 3-fight win streak. Many thought he would be solid competition for Muhammad. Not so much. Belal made Lima look silly. Belal maintained a suffocating distance, showed great defensive tactics, and hit on 136 significant strikes. His attack was constant. Muhammad fights at a relentless pace akin to Max Holloway and he’s as skilled a grappler as he is a striker. It’s reasonable to say that Leon Edwards hasn’t seen a fighter quite like Muhammad.
In my heart, I want Leon Edward to win. He’s still one of the hottest prospects in the UFC and he deserves to reassert himself as one of the Welterweight’s top contenders. The long layoff and cancelled fights weren’t his fault. I would also love an Edwards/Usman rematch. But if we’re talking smart wagering and finding value, it lies with Muhammad. There’s a reason the total on this fight going the distance is set at -190. Historically, both fighters let their battles go to the score cards, though Belal was awfully aggressive in his last fight. Edwards likes to pick his spots and methodically beat his opponents. If anything, a bet on Muhammad within distance has a higher chance of hitting, and those odds are +500.
In summation, I love taking an underrated fighter at + money who’s hungry and coming with a ton of momentum. Edwards better not take Muhammad lightly.
Bet: Muhammad wins (+220)
