Raulian Paiva vs Sergey Morozov -150
Buying low is the way to go, and you can see that this bamtam weight fight line tells a story when Morozov is 1-2 in the UFC as a 60% favorite against Paiva who is 3-3. Sergey Morozov is a 33 year old Russian that knows how to win fights both standing on his feet and on the mat. He has eight wins by KO, three submissions and six decisions. Sergey’s three UFC fights were certainly no cakewalk with a loss vs Umar Nurmagomedov who is a -1000 favorite tonight (cousins with Khabib). A win vs a tier two Khalid Taha, and then a loss back in February by a very seasoned tier 1 fighter in Douglas Silva De Andrade who is 28-4. Raulian Paiva is a 26 year old contender who is two inches taller than Sergey with a very nice fight record at 21-4. Raulian is quick on his feet and likes to stick and move. His wins are 4 by KO, 3 by submission, and 14 decisions. Two of his three UFC wins were to tier 3/4 fighters and his one tier two win vs Kyler Phillips by decision was a total farce as what most fight fans would say being that the judges got it completely wrong. This is why there is value in this fight and Sergey isn’t a larger favorite. Paiva has speed and a great volume of punches and kicks, but there really isn’t much power behind them being that he goes to decision so often. Sergey Morozov is the much more accurate striker landing 58% of them compared to Raulian’s 45% and most of Sergey’s wins are by knockout. Morozov has a massive take down advantage at 3.28 per 15 minutes to .58 for Raulian so that will help him if the going gets tough. Three out of four of Raulian’s losses came inside the distance and his last fight vs Sean O’Malley got him knocked out in the first. Raulian has been living off winning by the cards for a long time now, but I think that time will come to an end tonight. Even if this fight doesn’t get finished inside the distance, I think that Morozov gets the job done accumulating ground and pound damage and will show that he is the stronger fighter and the price says so.
Morozov -150 – 2 stars
Bonus Play:
Durden to win ITD +300 – .5 stars
JP Buys to win ITD +200 – .5 stars – These two fighters have only went to the cards 6 times out of 29 fights. I think this one does not go the distance and you can get +125 betting it like this.
