UFC Vegas 51 Free Play – Sports Betting

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Vicente Luque vs Belal Muhammed +140

The main event here is where we find some value here in the welterweight class.   Vicente is ranked 5th in this stacked weight class with Belal ranking 6th, but I think that there is a bigger gap between these fighters.   This Matchup actually happened a long time ago on November 12th of 2016 when Luque knocked out Muhammed in the first round with ease.  Since then, Muhammed has went 9-1-1 and Luque went 10-2.  Both fighters fought about the same strength of schedule except, Muhammad would have had an extra loss over Edwards had he not have gotten out of that Leon Edwards fight with an accidental eye poke.   Looking at how these fighters match up, Muhammad is the wrestler who will be looking to get points through takedowns and Luque is the striker who will certainly be the aggressor.   In saying that, Luque is no stranger to the mat himself as he has finished two very good fighters in Michael Chiesa and Tyron Woodley via submission in the first round during his last two fights.   Luque is the younger fighter at 30 years old to Belal being 33.  Vicente also has the striking advantage at 5.65 significant strikes per minute to Belal at 4.55 respectively.   I am not impressed with the schedule that Belal has had since his last fight vs Luque, and I think this match should be an easy victory most likely within the distance, but the -170 makes it just fine for me to just take Vicente for the win.

Vicente Luque -170 – 2 stars

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Kiev O'Neil: 20+ years of sports betting experience. Podcast host since 2017. College Football since 2019 412-367-27 UP 58.7U NFL since 2018 249-228-16 up 40U UFC since 2019 82-74-5 up 34.1U I do not necessarily look at myself as being a so called “sharp” sports bettor. Instead I like to think of myself as a great compiler of information who specializes in the Big 10, but also handicaps all NFL, NCAA football, UFC, Basketball, Horse Racing and more! I encourage people to specialize in a conference or division that will help give them the greatest edge in their sports wagers. I am never against a person betting against their favorite teams when the situation is right.