What’s up team! Please see some updates below.
NBA, April 5:
- Sixers 1Q -4, 1.5 units
- This line isn’t out yet but when it is, hit it! Look at any recent Pacers game and they all show the same routine – the Pacers get blown out in the 1st quarter, they’re feisty in the 2nd quarter, and they’re harder to predict in a full game line. Let’s take the Sixers in the 1Q, who still have plenty to play for as they chase the #1 seed, to blow Indiana out of the water.
- Cavs -8.5, 1.5 units
- You know what team should have NO issue with motivation? The Cavaliers. Currently they sit in the 7th spot but the Bulls are spiraling and spiraling fast – there’s a decent chance that Chicago falls into that 7th seed by the time the playoffs start. Cleveland’s remaining schedule is really tough, but if they got a shot at the 6th seed, they NEED to win this contest. Wendall Carter Jr. may be out of this game, too, and he’s really the only player who should give the Cavs substantial issues here. Apparently there’s also a shot that Allen and Mobley return as well. All CLE for me. I wouldn’t take this beyond -8.5.
- Nets 1H -9.5 or less, 1.5 units This is canceled since it opened -10.
- Here we go with these first half lines but this one makes too much sense. I’m not sure if it’s a guarantee that Brooklyn wants to win every remaining game; it’s certainly not essential since they’re locked into the play-in tournament. I’m betting that Brooklyn is motivated in the first half, though, since lately they don’t have much to celebrate and they’re showing a worrisome lack of defensive prowess and all-around chemistry. The Rockets are the perfect team to take advantage of in a fast-paced, high-output contest. No bet here if it’s 10 or more.
- Bucks -4, 2 units
- Speaking of Chicago spiraling, this is a very bad spot for the Bulls, mostly because of the kind of Bucks team I expect to see. As long as all of Milwaukee’s stars play, and right now it looks like they will, the Bucks should be ultra motivated after their loss to the Mavericks. Momentum is a thing before the playoffs, and stumbling into it isn’t what any team wants. Milwaukee still has a shot at the #1 seed, and the Bulls could be without Caruso here, too. I’ll confidently take the Bucks. No bet here if it’s 5.5 or more.
- Blazers/Thunder over 223, 2 units
- These two squads scored 235 points before they reached OT a few days ago and games between bad teams with nothing to play for are going over routinely. Sort of a blind bet, but the reasoning is solid – why would ANYONE want to play defense here? Exactly.
- NEW: Timberwolves 1H -7 and 1H TT over 64.5 points, both 1 unit each
- Minnesota has NO reason to not go balls to the wall from the start of this contest, and they’re going up against one of the worst defenses in the NBA right now. Washington’s porous front court defense should allow plenty of points and margin by the end of the first half.
- Spurs +6, 1 unit
- This is +6.5 at some places but we’ll keep it at 6 so we can all get it. The Spurs have a lot to play for, i.e. survival, and I’m not sure if Denver will be equally motivated here. This is only a 1 unit play since my power ratings have this exactly where the line is, but the added narrative for San Antonio has me pulling the trigger. The Spurs’ remaining schedule is brutal, so this is probably one they circled as a possible win. No bet here if it drops under 6 for you.
- 4-Leg Parlay: 1.5 units to win 2.45 units
- Cavs + Sixers + T-Wolves + Bucks moneylines
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
