We have a new world number 1 as Scottie Scheffler wins the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play defeating Kevin Kisner. Scheffler has now won three of his last five starts after going winless in his first 72 starts. He is absolutely lights out right now just playing some incredible golf. He’s not in this weeks event as he takes a deserved rest before the Masters next week. We we’re pretty solid this week gaining 1.7 units which brings our total to +24.52 Units in the last eight weeks.
This week we finish off the “Texas Swing” with the Valero Texas Open. This is mainly a prep tournament before the Masters next week. UT grad and Texas native Jordan Spieth won this event last year shooting 18 under par. It’s not a great field as most of the worlds best players will rest since this isn’t a major tournament. However, this tournament does mean a lot to a ton of players as this is the last event to qualify for the Masters.
Three of the past four winners captured their first win on the PGA Tour so we’re going with a large card with some bigger odds. Let’s get into the Valero Texas Open and breakdown this interesting field.
Tournament Information:
- Dates: March 31st, 2022- April 3rd, 2022
- Location: San Antonio, Texas, United States
- Course: TPC San Antonio – Oaks Course
- Course Type: Texas/Southwest
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,438 yards
- Format: 72 hole stroke play
- Field/ Cut: 144 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
- Greens: Champion Bermudagrass overseeded w/ Poa Trivialis
- Fairways: Bermudagrass, Rye/ Fescue
- Rough: Bermudagrass 2″
- Stimpmeter: 11.0 ft. (Slow)
- Purse: $8,600,000 / Winner $1.548 Million
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
- Bunkers: 64
- Water Hazards: – (In-Play on 2 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 6,400 sq. ft.
- Scoring Average:
- 2021: 72.48 (+0.48), Rank 15 of 51
- 2019: 71.24 (-0.76), Rank 28 of 49
- 2018: 72.37 (+0.37), Rank 12 of 51
- Historic Cut Lines:
- 2021: +2
- 2019: -1
- 2018: +1
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
- Course Architect: Greg Norman & Sergio Garcia (2010)
- Renovations: N/A
- Comparable Courses:
- Round 1: Thursday, March 31st, 2022
- Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, April 1st, 2022
- Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, April 2nd, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:30 PM ET
- NBC – 3:30 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, April 3rd, 2022
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM ET
- NBC – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Thursday: Sunny 68 F, 8 mp/h ENE, 33% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Partly Cloudy 73 F, 15 mp/h SE, 38% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Partly Cloudy 74 F, 9 mp/h NNE, 51% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Partly Cloudy 76 F, 12 mp/h ESE, 46% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
- Stroked Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Driving Distance
- Par 4 Scoring: 400-450, 450-500
- Scrambling
The Field/ Odds:
Rory McIlroy is the favorite for this weeks event going off around 7/8-1 this week on most major books. He didn’t play the past two weeks so he’ll be well rested coming into the Valero. His last appearance at the Valero Texas Open was back in 2013 where he finished 2nd.
Last years winner and Texas native, Jordan Spieth is next in line in terms of odds around 14-1. Spieth struggled last week not making it out of the group stage last week in the WGC Match play event. Prior to that event, he missed the cut at THE PLAYERS so he’s not coming into this tournament in great form. That being said, Jordan has had success here before in addition to his win, finishing 2nd in 2015 and 10th in 2014.
Corey Conners is the third favorite this week with 18-1 odds on most major books. He won this event back in 2019 and finished 14th here at TPC San Antonio in 2021. Conners’ enters this tournament in great form finishing 3rd at THE PLAYERS.
Hideki Matsuyama is next up in terms of odds going off at 20-1. Matsuyama finished 30th at TPC San Antonio last year in his tournament debut. He hasn’t played since the Arnold Palmer Invitation where he finished T20 so we’ll see if he can return to form. Matsuyama does have a win this year back at the ZOZO Championship which was held in his native country Japan.
Rounding out the favorites this week is everyone’s favorite golfer, Bryson Dechambeau. Bryson’s listed at 22-1 on most books and hasn’t played in this event since 2017. In his two appearances at this event, he’s missed the cut both times. Last week Bryson struggled at Austin Country Club so we’ll see how he fares heading into the Masters.
A very popular play this week will be Charley Hoffman who has had a ton of success here. Starting with 2021 these have been his finishing positions; 2-2-64-40-1-11-11-3-13-2. However, he has missed the cut in his past two events so we’ll see if he can stay hot at his favorite course.
Other previous winners in the field include; Andrew Landry (’18), Kevin Chappell (’17), Charley Hoffman (’16), Jimmy Walker (’15), Martin Laird (’13), Brendan Steele (’11), and Zach Johnson (’09,’08).
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2021: Jordan Spieth (-18)
- Price: 16-1
- 2020: Cancelled after the first round due to the COVID-19 pandemic
- Price: N/A
- 2019: Corey Conners (-20)
- Price: 200-1
- 2018: Andrew Landry (-17)
- Price: 200-1
- 2017: Kevin Chappell (-12)
- Price: 33-1
Picks (Outright) – I told you I was going with a big card this week:
Given that it’s a larger card, I just don’t have the time to do a full write up on every guy. It’s the week before the Master’s I took a flyer on a bunch (nine to be exact) of guys to capture their first win here. I mentioned this before that three of the past four winners have been first time PGA Tour winners. My strategy here was to look at the historical strokes gained data and take some of the top guys in that category so we’ll see how it pans out. I’m not risking a lot this week so I can place allocate some more funds next week given the volatility of this event.
- Maverick McNealy (+3500) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
- Doug Ghim (+8000) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
- Denny McCarthy (+8000) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
- Matthew NeSmith (+10000) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
- Beau Hossler (+12500) – Caesars
- Risk 0.07 to win 8.75 Units
- Wyndham Clark (+16000) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.05 to win 8.00 Units
- Hank Lebioda (+20000) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.04 to win 8.00 Units
- Joseph Bramlett (+21000) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.04 to win 8.40 Units
- Trey Mullinax (+32000) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.03 to win 9.60 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 0.74 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Gary Woodland (+175) – DraftKings
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
Gary Woodland finished 6th at the Valero Texas Open last year. He’s took the last few weeks off but finished 21st at the Valspar in his last tournament. Prior to that he missed the cut at THE PLAYERS but had back to back 5th place finishes at the API and Honda Classic. Woodland ranks 44th in SG: APP, 44th in SG: Putting, and 45th in SG: T2G. He’s also one of the longest players on Tour off the tee which should provide an additional advantage.
- Adam Hadwin (+175) – DraftKings
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
Adam Hadwin has back to back top 10 finishes at the Valspar Championship and THE PLAYERS. Last year he finished 23rd at this event. Hadwin is one of the best players on Tour in terms of approach ranking 25th in SG: APP. He also ranks well in SG:ATG, SG:Putting, and SG:T2G. Additionally, Hadwin is one of the best players in terms of Par 4 Scoring Average ranking 31st.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
- Kevin Streelman (+100) – DraftKings
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Kevin Streelman has had some success here in the past finishing 6th in 2019 and 8th in 2018. He enters this tournament in great form finishing 7th at the Valspar and 22nd at THE PLAYERS. Streelman has been solid this year ranking 47th SG:OTT, 54th in SG:ATG, and 66th in SG:T2G. In terms of Par 4 Scoring he ranks 66th which is a great especially for this event. In his last four events, he has finished in the Top 40 three of four and in his last six appearances at the Valero Texas Open he’s finished inside the Top 40 five of six. This is also a value play as most other books have him around -110/-115.
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the Valero Texas Open: 3.74 Units
SG Data at the Valero Texas Open since 2016: Source
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
