Sam Burns defeated Cameron Young to win the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event. With that victory, Burns captured his fifth career PGA Tour victory. Cameron Young has now finished second in seven events in the past two seasons failing to record a single Tour win during that span. Scottie and Rory battled it out in the consolation match with Rory ending up victorious winning 2&1.
Matt Wallace also earned his maiden PGA Tour title at the Corales Puntacana Championship. He’s now fully exempt on Tour through 2025.
The PGA stays in Texas for one last event before heading to Augusta, Georgia. The winner of the Valero Texas Open will be the final person to stamp his ticket to the Masters. Last year, we saw J.J. Spaun win his first PGA Tour event. It’s been an event that longshots have dominated as of late with three of the last four winners having odds of 200-1. Jordan Speith was the only outlier during that span winning in 2021 but will skip the Valero Texas Open this year in preparation for the Masters. While it’s not the most glamorous event and certainly gets overshadowed, it is another week for potential winners so let’s break down Valero Texas Open.
- Dates: March 30th, 2023 – April 2nd, 2023
- Location: San Antonio, Texas, United States
- Course: TPC San Antonio – Oaks Course
- Course Type: Texas/Southwest
- Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
- Length: 7,438 yards
- Format: 72-hole stroke play
- Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed .110” (all grass areas are on Bermuda base)
- Fairways: Perennial rye/fescue .400”
- Rough: Perennial rye/fescue 2.25”
- Bunkers: 64
- Water Hazard(s): 3 (In-Play on 3 Holes)
- Average Green Size: 6,400 sq. ft.
- Stimpmeter: 11 ft.
- Purse/ Winner: $8,900,000 /$1,602,000
- FedEx Cup Points: 500
- Field/ Cut: 144 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
- Historic Cut Line:
- 2022: -1
- 2021: +2
- 2019: -1
- Course Scoring Average:
- 2022: 71.76 (-0.24), Rank 18 of 50
- 2021: 72.48 (+0.48), Rank 15 of 51
- 2019: 71.24 (-0.76), Rank 28 of 49
Course Architect:
- Course Architect: Greg Norman (2010)
- Renovations: Bunkers updated in 2021
Comparable Courses & Greens:
- Comparable Courses:
- Designer Link (Greg Norman):
- El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba – WWT Championship at Mayakoba
- Tiburón Golf Club – QBE Shootout
- Vidanta Vallarta – Mexico Open at Vidanta
- Comparable Location (San Antonio, Texas):
- Austin Country Club – Austin, Texas – WGC – Dell Technologies Match Play
- TPC Craig Ranch – McKinney, Texas – AT&T Byron Nelson
- Colonial Country Club – Fort Worth, Texas – Charles Schwab Challenge
- Memorial Park Golf Course – Houston, Texas – Cadence Bank Houston Open
- Comparable Yardage (7,438 Yards):
- TPC Louisiana – 7,425 Yards – Zurich Classic of New Orleans
- Vidanta Vallarta – 7,456 Yards – Mexico Open at Vidanta
- The Country Club of Jackson – 7,461 Yards – Sanderson Farms Championship
- Comparable Greens (Poa Trivialis overseed .110”):
- TPC Sawgrass – TifEagle bermuda o/s w/ Poa Trivialis .100” – THE PLAYERS
- TPC Louisiana – TifEagle bermuda o/s w/ Poa Trivialis .100” – Zurich Classic
- Harbour Town – TifEagle bermuda o/s w/ Poa Trivialis .100” – RBC Heritage
- Comparable Average Green Size (6,400 sq. ft.):
- Augusta National Golf Club – 6,486 sq. ft. – Masters Tournament
- TPC Twin Cities – 6,500 sq. ft. – 3M Open
- Grand Reserve Golf Club – 6,500 sq. ft. – Puerto Rico Open
TV Information:
- Round 1: Thursday, March 30th, 2023
- Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 2: Friday, March 31st, 2023
- Golf Channel – 4:00 PM – 7:00 PM ET
- Round 3: Saturday, April 1st, 2023
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:30 PM ET
- NBC – 3:30 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Round 4: Sunday, April 2nd, 2023
- Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM ET
- NBC – 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM ET
- Thursday: Scattered Thunderstorms 79 F, 13 mp/h SE, 87% Humidity, 59% Chance of Rain
- Friday: Isolated Thunderstorms 87 F, 13 mp/h S, 75% Humidity, 33% Chance of Rain
- Saturday: Partly Cloudy 82 F, 11 mp/h NE, 45% Humidity, 22% Chance of Rain
- Sunday: Mostly Cloudy 87 F, 11 mp/h SE, 63% Humidity, 13% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
- Most Tournament Wins:
- 3, Arnold Palmer (1960, 1961, 1962) & Justin Leonard (2000, 2001, 2007)
- 72-Hole Record (TPC San Antonio):
- 268, Corey Conners (2019)
- 18-Hole Record (TPC San Antonio):
- 62, Trey Mullinax (3rd round, 2018)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC San Antonio is one of the tougher courses on Tour ranking 18th of the 50th courses players faced last season. Over the past five years, the scoring average has been above par three times. In 2022, only four holes (No. 11, No. 12, No. 16, & No. 17) played under par outside of the four par 5’s (No. 2, No. 8, No. 14, & No. 18).
In terms of length, TPC San Antonio is slightly above average measuring 7,438 yards. The course ranks 20th out of 46 courses in distance. The fairways are on the narrower side, with the average fairway width being 30.0 yards. This ranks as the 12th narrowest course on the Tour so Strokes Gained Off the Tee will be a key category this week. Even with the narrow fairways, the rough this week is relatively short so missing the fairway won’t be as costly. However, most of the fairways are tree-lined which means wayward drives will lead to trouble. The average green size is roughly 6,400 square feet which is on the larger side of things when compared to the other courses on the PGA Tour.
The four Par 3’s range between 171 yards and 241 yards. The only par 3 to play under par last year was No. 16 (-0.009). No. 7 and No. 14 are two of the more challenging holes as they had more bogeys than birdies recorded on them in last year’s tournament.
Most of the twelve Par 4’s range between 400-500 yards. No. 17 is the shortest listed at 347 yards with the longest being No. 4, playing 481 yards.
The four Par 5’s are No. 2, No. 8, No. 14, & No. 18. While they all played under par last season, they are some of the more challenging par 5’s on Tour given their distance. All of these par 5’s are over 590 yards with two listed at 600+ yards.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16 – 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
- Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards (x5)
- Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x2)
- Proximity: 250+ Yards
- Scrambling
- Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
There will be 144 players in the field at this year’s Valero Texas Open. Only one of the world’s top twenty players will be in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s event:
- Tyrrell Hatton (+1200) failed to make it out of the group stage at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event last week. He went 0-3 in his group matches struggling with a hand injury. It’s unsure if he’s 100% this week so that’s something to monitor. Before that, he was in great form finishing 2nd at THE PLAYERS Championship and T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’ll be making his debut at the Valero Texas Open, so we have no course history on him.
- Rickie Fowler (+1600) failed to make it out of the group stage at last week’s WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event despite beating World No. 2 Jon Rahm in his first matchup. Despite a disappointing result at Austin Country Club, Rickie has certainly turned his game around. In his last five starts on Tour (excluding last week), he has finished inside the top 20 four times. While he’s still inconsistent off the tee, his approach play has been much improved from last year. His putting has also been a strong point for him gaining strokes in each of his last three starts. Last year at the Valero Texas Open he missed the cut but in 2021 and 2019 he finished T17. If he hopes to make it to Augusta next weekend, he’ll need to win here in San Antonio.
- Corey Conners (+2000) failed to make it out of the group stage at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event last week going 2-1 in his three matches. His lone loss was to Cameron Young who would make it to the final. Before that, he missed the cut for the second time this year at THE PLAYERS Championship. Conners had had success at TPC San Antonio before winning this event back in 2019. Outside of that, he has finished T26-T14-T35 in his three other appearances at the Valero Texas Open.
- Si Woo Kim (+2200) failed to make it out of the group stage at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event last week going 2-1 in his three matches. In his eleven other starts on the PGA Tour this season, Si Woo has never missed a cut. The highlight of his year so far was his victory at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He’s played in the Valero Texas Open six times before finishing MC-T22-T45-T4-T23-T13.
- Hideki Matsuyama (+2200) withdrew after his second match at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event last week. It’s unsure if he’s 100% this week given his neck/back injury so that’s something to monitor. Before that, he finished 5th at THE PLAYERS Championship but missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Genesis Invitational. Last year at the Valero Texas Open he withdrew and in 2021 he finished T30.
- Previous Winners in the field:
- J.J. Spaun (’22), Corey Conners (’19), Andrew Landry (’18), Kevin Chappell (’17), Charley Hoffman (’16), Jimmy Walker (’15), and Martin Laird (’13)
- Notable Withdraws:
- Keith Mitchell (Undisclosed), Stephan Jaeger (Undisclosed), Anders Albertson (back), Robert Streb (W/D), Davis Thompson (W/D), Brian Gay (Undisclosed)
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
- Corey Conners: T26/ 1/ T14/ T35
- Charley Hoffman: T8/ T11/ T70/ T9/ T13/ T2/ T13/ T3/ T11/ T11/ 1/ T40/ T64/ 2/ 2/ MC
- Lucas Glover: T52/ MC/ T14/ 4/ T18
- Dylan Frittelli: T20/ T42/ T8
- Ryan Moore: T53/ T8/ T18/ 7/ 3/ 76
- Kevin Streelman: T19/ T15/ T13/ T37/ T53/ T8/ 6/ T18
Keith Mitchell: T26/ T17
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
- Kramer Hickok: MC/ MC/ MC
- Jason Dufner: MC/ MC/ MC
- Jonathan Byrd: MC/ MC/ MC
Stephan Jaeger: MC/ MC/ MC- Michael Gligic: MC/ MC
- Harry Higgs: MC/ MC
- Patrick Rodgers: MC/ MC/ MC/ T58
- Austin Cook: T30/ MC/ MC/ MC
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
- 2022: J.J. Spaun (-13)
- Price: 200-1
- 2021: Jordan Spieth (-18)
- Price: 16-1
- 2020: Cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
- Price: N/A
- 2019: Corey Conners (-20)
- Price: 200-1
- 2018: Andrew Landry (-17)
- Price: 200-1
Picks (Outrights):
Given the unpredictable nature of this event, I’ll be going with a smaller card. In terms of outright, I’ve gone with a higher volume approach. The Master’s is next week so my card will be larger than normal.
- Taylor Montgomery (+2800) – BetMGM
- Risk 0.29 to win 8.12 Units
- Matt Kuchar (+3300) – BetMGM
- Risk 0.25 to win 8.25 Units
- Thomas Detry (+5000) – BetMGM
- Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
- Aaron Rai (+5500) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
- Kevin Chappell (+18000) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.05 to win 9.00 Units
- Nate Lashley (+18000) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.05 to win 9.00 Units
- Lucas Glover (+18000) – DraftKings
- Risk 0.05 to win 9.00 Units
- Austin Smotherman (+21000) – FanDuel
- Risk 0.04 to win 8.40 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.04 Units
Picks (Top 10):
- Rickie Fowler (+230) – FanDuel
- Risk 1.00 to win 2.30 Units
Total Risk on Top 10s: 1.00 Units
Picks (Top 20):
- Si Woo Kim (+115) – DraftKings
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.15 Units
- Corey Conners (+120) – DraftKings
- Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Valero Texas Open: 4.04 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
