Valspar Championship – Preview & Picks

What a lackluster finish at THE PLAYERS Championship. Scottie Scheffler at 10-1 wins it, capturing his second victory on Tour this season. His five-stroke victory was the largest on Tour this year. Scheffler now joins Jon Rahm and Max Homa as the only players to have won multiple events this season. With that victory, Scheffler has now returned to No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking. He’s also the defending champion at two of the four upcoming events which is also something to keep an eye on.

The PGA stays in Florida for one last event before heading to Texas. The Valspar Championship takes place this week at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor Florida. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is interesting as it doesn’t necessarily play like a typical Florida-type course. It features a lot of elevation changes and tree-lined fairways which is something you don’t see too often in the Sunshine state. Given it’s not a ‘designated vent’ we still have a decent field this week with five of the Top 10 golfers in the world participating. Sam Burns is going for a three-peat at the Valspar Championship this week. If he’s able to do so, he’ll be the first player since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic from 2009-11.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: March 16th, 2023 – March 19th, 2023
• Location: Palm Harbor, Florida, United States
• Course: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
• Course Type: Carolina-type
• Par: 71 (5x 3’s / 9x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
• Length: 7,340 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Poa Trivialis overseed .120” (all grass areas are on Bermuda base)
• Fairways: Ryegrass overseed .450”
• Rough: Ryegrass overseed 3.75” (Increased from last year’s height of 3.00″)
• Bunkers: 74
• Water Hazard(s): 8 (In-Play on 9 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,822 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $8,100,000/$1,458,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 144 Pros | Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: -3
  • 2021: -1
  • 2019: +1
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 70.23 (-0.77), Rank 29 of 50
  • 2021: 70.96 (-0.04), Rank 20 of 51
  • 2019: 71.98 (+0.98), Rank 6 of 49

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, March 16th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 2: Friday, March 17th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, March 18th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • NBC – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, March 19th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 1:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • NBC – 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Sunny 77 F, 9 mp/h ESE, 52% Humidity, 4% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Partly Cloudy 80 F, 17 mp/h S, 62% Humidity, 11% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Thunderstorms 77 F, 17 mp/h SW, 79% Humidity, 86% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Mostly Cloudy 65 F, 15 mp/h NNE, 60% Humidity, 24% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

In 2020 along with several other tournaments, this event was not held due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, it returned in 2021 when Sam Burns captured his second consecutive victory on the Copperhead course at Innisbrook.

Innisbrook Resort has four courses: Copperhead, North, South, and Island. The Valspar Championship takes place on the Copperhead Course which was the second course built at Innisbrook. It’s the longest course at the resort and the most difficult by far.

The 2015 renovation was overseen by the Wadsworth Golf Construction Company who was also part of the original design. The greens were reseeded with TifEagle Bermuda Grass with a few being restored to their original size allowing for more pin placements. The fairways were replaced with Celebration Bermuda grass to provide a much more consistent hitting surface. In addition to the surface changes, most bunkers were reshaped. The tee boxes were also reshaped and expanded as well.

This is one of the newer events on Tour making its debut in 2000. It was originally known as the Tampa Bay Classic and was an alternate event that took place in autumn and late summer. From 2003 to 2006 this tournament was held in autumn before moving to March in 2007. During that period, it was known as the Chrysler Championship. In addition to the schedule change in 2007, a new sponsor also took over. From 2007 to 2008 it was the PODS Championship. This tournament has struggled to hold down a permeant sponsor but in 2014 the Valspar Corporation took over and has been the presenting sponsor since then.

• Most Tournament Wins:
  • 2, K.J. Choi (’02, ’06), Retief Goosen (’03, ’09), Paul Casey (’18, ’19), Sam Burns (’21, ’22)
• 72-Hole Record:
  • 266, Vijay Singh (2004)
• 18-Hole Record:
  • 61, Padraig Harrington (1st round, 2012)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Just like we’ve seen in the past few weeks with PGA National, TPC Sawgrass, and Bay Hill, this is one of the tougher courses on Tour. Last year, only seven holes played under par which included the four Par 5’s. The only other holes that played under par were No. 10, 12, and 17.

The Copperhead course at Innisbrook isn’t your typical Florida course. It features a lot of elevation changes and tree-lined fairways. Many players will not play driver on most holes as it has the fifth-lowest average driving distance on the PGA Tour. Accuracy off the tee is especially crucial this week given the rough has grown out from 3.00″ to 3.75″.

There are five Par 3’s on the course with four of the five measuring over 200 yards in length. The toughest Par 3 on the course is Hole No. 8 which played just 0.083 strokes under par last year. The easiest Par 3 at Innisbrook is Hole No. 17 which played 0.025 strokes under par.

The four Par 5’s are some of the longest on Tour with the shortest playing 560 yards and the longest playing 605 yards. Out of all of the Par 5’s, Hole No. 1 is the shortest measuring 560 yards while Hole No. 5 is the longest playing 605 yards.

The majority of the Par 4’s play between 400-450 yards. The shortest Par 4 at Innisbrook is Hole No. 12 which is only 380 yards but played 0.051 strokes over par last year. The longest Par 4 is Hole No. 16 which is listed at 475 yards and is the start of “The Snake Pit.” The most famous stretch of holes here is “The Snake Pit” which is Holes 16 through 18.

Hole No. 16: ‘Moccasin’, is one of the toughest scoring Holes on the PGA Tour. Players will tee off with water in play all along the right side of the fairway with trees bordering the fairway on the left. It’s a very narrow fairway so most will look to try and play a controlled fade here. The green is surrounded by bunkers on the left and right side so a great drive is key here to allow players an easier approach shot.

Hole No. 17: ‘The Rattler’, is a Par 3, that plays 215 yards, tied for the longest Par 3 on the course with Hole No. 15. If players somehow hit it short and right, the water is in play but it’s not the main concern here. The green is very narrow with bunkers and trees protecting it on every side.

Hole No. 18: ‘The Copperhead’, is a relatively short distance wise only playing 445 yards. It features a narrow fairway that’s lined with bunkers and trees. Just like the fairways, the green is surrounded by bunkers.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16 – 18

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
• Par 3 Scoring: 200 – 225 Yards (x3)
• Par 4 Scoring: 400 – 450 Yards (x5)
• Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards (x3)
• Proximity: 250+ Yards
• Scrambling
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

There will be 144 players in the field at this year’s Valspar Championship. Only four of the world’s top fifteen players will be in the field. Here are the current favorites in this week’s field:

• Justin Thomas (+1100) has four top-20 finishes in his five appearances at Innisbrook Resort. His best finish during that span was last year when he finished T3. Last week at the PLAYERS, he had his worst finish of the year (T60) losing 1.11 strokes on the green. He has yet to win an event this season but has six top-25 finishes in his eight starts on Tour this year.
• Jordan Spieth (+1200) will make his first start at Innisbrook Resort since 2018 when he missed the cut. Outside of that year, he has been great at this event winning in 2015. Spieth has had his struggles his season but has turned it around as of late finishing T4 and T19 in his last two starts on Tour.
• Sam Burns (+1600) has now won the Valspar in back-to-back years. However, his recent play has been sub-par as he has missed the cut in two of his last three starts on Tour. Last week at the PLAYERS, he finished T35 gaining strokes in nearly every category.
• Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1800) has had an up-and-down season to start the year. He’s competed in eight events finishing top-15 in four of them and missing the cut in three. Fitzpatrick made his debut at the Valspar in 2018 where he missed the cut. In his only other appearance at Innisbrook, he finished T5.

 

• Previous Winners in the field:
  • Sam Burns (’22, ’21), Adam Hadwin (’17), Jordan Spieth (’15), Kevin Streelman (’13), Luke Donald (’12), Gary Woodland (’11)

• Notable Withdraws:
  • Callum Tarren, Taylor Montgomery, Anders Albertson, Aaron Rai

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

• Sam Burns: T12/ T30/ 1/ 1
• Matthew NeSmith: T21/ T3
• Justin Thomas: T10/ T18/ MC/ T13/ T3
• Jordan Spieth: T7/ T20/ 1/ T18/ MC

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.

• Zac Blair: MC/ MC/ MC
• Martin Trainer: MC/ MC/ MC
• Kevin Tway: MC/ MC/ MC
• Cody Gribble: MC/ MC
• Sam Ryder: T68/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Peter Malnati: MC/ MC/ MC/ T60/ MC/ MC
• Patrick Rodgers: MC/ MC/ T59/ MC/ MC
• Michael Kim: MC/ T52/ MC/ MC/ MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Sam Burns (-17)
  • Price: 25-1
• 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • Price: 80-1
• 2020: Cancelled after the first round due to the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Price: N/A
• 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • Price: 25-1
• 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • Price: 25-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Keegan Bradley (+2500) – DraftKings (Keegan WD on Wednesday)
  • Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
• Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) – DraftKings (Replacing Keegan Bradley)
  • 0.37 to win 8.14 Units

• Davis Riley (+3500) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

• Wyndham Clark (+4000) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

• Gary Woodland (+4000) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

• Taylor Moore (+7000) – DraftKings
  • Risk 0.12 to win 8.40 Units

• Nate Lashley (+9000) – Pointsbet
  • Risk 0.09 to win 8.10 Units

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.16 Units (Update 1.21 Units)

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Adam Hadwin (+130) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

Hadwin started off the season strong making the cut in each of his nine starts before failing to make the weekend at Bay Hill. He followed that missed cut up with a T13 finish at the PLAYERS last week gaining strokes in every category outside of putting. Hadwin has some interesting course history at Innisbrook. He won the Valspar Championship in 2017 and followed that up with a T12 finish in 2018. In the following two appearances here, he missed the cut. However, last year he put together a much better performance finishing T7. He’s not long off the tee ranking 135th but given the narrow fairways accuracy is more important this week where he ranks 24th. His approach play has also improved this season ranking 36th in strokes gained. Given his recent form and course history, Hadwin seems like he should be able to grab his second consecutive top-20 finish at Innisbrook.

• Justin Rose (+130) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

Justin Rose captured his first PGA TOUR win early this season at Pebble Beach since the 2019 Farmers Insurance Open. Following that victory, he fell into a rut missing the cut in each of his next two starts. Last week, he seemed to figure things out off the tee at the PLAYERS finishing T6. His approach play has also been fantastic this season gaining strokes in each of his last five starts. The last time he played in the Valspar Championship was back in 2021 when he missed the cut for just his second time here. Out of his eleven appearances at Innisbrook, Rose has finished inside the top 20 six times. He seems to be in great form and given his extensive course knowledge, Rose seems primed for another great finish.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Ben Griffin (+100) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

After missing the cut at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Griffin has been playing some great golf finishing T21, T14, and T35 in his last three starts. He’ll be making his debut at Innisbrook. Griffin ranks 30th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 17th in SG: Around-the-Green, and 64th in SG: Approach. Last week, at TPC Sawgrass which has a similar green complex, he gained strokes on green, so I’m not too concerned about his putting. Despite the rookie making his debut at the Valspar, he seems like a great course fit.

• Brandon Wu (+110) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.10 Units

Brandon Wu has been on a hot streak finishing T14 and T19 in his last two starts. Last week at the PLAYERS, he gained 1.88 strokes putting which is a great sign as we head to Innisbrook this week which has a similar green complex. Last year at the Valspar Championship, he finished T33 gaining strokes in every category besides around the green. He ranks 57th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 49th in Driving Accuracy both of which are key stats this week. Wu should be able to continue his great form at the Valspar Championship and finish inside the top 40.

Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the Valspar Championship: 5.17 Units 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.