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Virginia at Louisville 3:30 pm
Pick: Louisville +3.5/Lean
I like Louisville in this spot. UVA coming off of a blowout win at home against Duke. A very misleading score of 48-14. Duke had 5 turnovers, 3 of those lost fumbles while putting together drives. UVA only outgained Duke by 57 and only outrushed them by 22 and Duke is not a really good run team outside of their dual threat QB. Louisville will bring more of a threat on the ground with the #22 run attack. UVA got out rushed by 174 at Notre Dame. They were out gained at home by ODU by 26.
Louisville is not a good defensive team but Virginia is not a good offensive team. I hear a lot about how good UVA QB Perkins is. He completed 50 % of his passes and had zero TD passes out of those 48 points that UVA scored vs Duke. He has an 8/7 TD/INT ratio on the season. UVA does not run the ball well. Taulapapa leads the team in rushing with 287 yds in 7 games. Louisville struggles vs teams that can run the ball. They are not good vs pass either but running teams kill them. Virginia doesn’t do either very well.
Louisville has the #27 offense, Virginia is prone to turn the ball over. UVA is 1-3-1 ATS on the road. Louisville has taken 3 of the last 4 meetings, the loss being last season when the Cardinals were really down. I like Louisville in this one.
