Thursday May 25th, 2023. Churchill Downs
First Post: 5:00 pm ET
Best Bet: Race 8 #8 Doubly Blessed
Value Bet: Race 3 #6 East Shore
Favorite I’m Against: Race 5 #1 Whisper Not
Race 1: SKIP
Race 2: #5 Cassius Win-Place
We have a salty 2yo MSW here, but the good news is NO WESLEY WARD. There are many ways to go, but I have landed on #5 Cassius, trained by Rey Hernandez. A smaller Midwest guy, not a household name, but 13 winners out of 81 races this year at 16%. It looks like he has a nice colt here. A 100k Fasig-Tipton purchase last October out of Classic Empire whose progeny have done fairly well so far and have found success winning debut. The dam Prosperity is out of Tapit, who is out of Distorted Humor who have had excellent success winning debut as well. Combine all this with a 36.4 gate drill 3/34 April 27th, and a 48.4 gate drill 3/38 on May 11th, it looks like we might have a horse ready to fire. We should get some value here with his FTS% being at 7%, hence the 12-1 ML. Small play on the 5 here.
*Careful with this race, don’t go crazy here as these 2yo races are usually tough.*
Race 3: #6 East Shore WIN
This is an intriguing N2L for fillies going two turns. I have come up with #6 East Shore. One of my stronger plays on the card. She gets back to a level I think she can win, and possibly wins easily. Her maiden score at CD last October was rather impressive. She didn’t break sharp, Martin rushed her up near the leaders, sat right off the pace most of the race, took the lead turning for home and drew clear. The connections thought a little too highly of her, went into a stakes race running in the back of the pack, but was won by Kentucky Oaks runner up Hoosier Philly. After two poor efforts in a OC100k/n1x, they now drop her in for 30 and face a cheap, small field. Draws a perfect outside post with tactical speed. Not to mention Romans has been hot as a pistol. Let’s hope these connections strike twice today! Singling the 6.
DD 6-5
50c Pick 3: 6/ALL/3,6=$8.00
20c Derby City 6: 6/ALL/3,6/8/3,4/1,3,5,9=$25.60
Race 4: Pass, use the #5 or ALL for multi race bets
By far the toughest race on the card, I’m either hitting the all button here or singling the 5. He’s on a 2 year layoff and drops in for 10k. Tons of red flags for a horse who was on the up and up. The works are respectable, and even if he is 50-60% of what he used to be, that should clobber or at the least beat this field. I don’t trust him enough though to bet on him here straight. No Plays here.
DD 5-3
50c Pick 3: ALL/3,6/8=$8.00
50c Pick 5: ALL/3/8/3,4/1,3,5,9=$32.00
Race 5: #3 Easy Time WIN, #6 Legal Attack
There are some fast older horses here, but Cherie DeVaux has a 5yo out of Not This Time making his 2nd start off the layoff and 3rd start with blinkers, #3 Easy Time. Hernandez Jr. made a gigantic move on the turn last month at Keeneland, then hung late and caught by Vivar who exploded deep in the stretch. The cutback to 1 mile from 1 mile and 1/16 should hit him right in the head. Also throw in the #6 Legal Attack, who won his debut in the states going 6F in 109.4. Stretches out today to a distance he was successful at in Europe as a 2 and 3yo. 3-6 here.
DD 3-8, 6-8
50c Pick 3: 3,6/8/3,4=$2.00
50c Pick 4: 3,6/8/3,4/ALL=$20.00
Race 6: #8 Doubly Blessed WIN *Best Bet*
This will be my best bet of the day, #8 Doubly Blessed. Trainer David Vance claimed this 6yo off of Micheal Maker last July for 62.5k and was forced to put him on the shelf until this past February. In his 1st start this year, he ran in the slop going 6F a distance that’s a little too short for him, then was off a step slow to boot. In his 2nd start ready to roll, Bowen pushed him to the lead, got pressed all the way around and fought 8 time winning machine Allege all the way to the wire. The cutback to 7F is right up his alley, his record will show 2 starts off the board at this distance, but one was in a Hcp20000s, and the other the G1 Forego. If he can match his 1 mile race two back, I think he’s the winner today. There is a ton of early speed in this race, but this horse is fast enough early to not be too far back, and Corey Lanerie loves to save horse. We should get an honest price with there being many ways to go. Single the 8 here.
DD 8-3, 8-4
50c Pick 3: 8/3,4/1,3,5,9=$4.00
Race 7: #3 Cancel This WIN, #4 Code For Success
My top pick #3 Cancel This, appears to be too fast for them here. She has lethal early speed since they added the blinkers two back, yes she quit badly but she was out of condition facing a n2x field. Her last start in the correct condition she ran a tough 2nd in the slop, until quitting badly late, including drifting out. The cutback to 6.5 furlongs should be short enough for her to hold on. I believe the only filly that will be moving up late, is Vicky Oliver trained #4 Code For Success. Be sure not to leave her off of your multi-race tickets as she could hit at a monster price. Hopefully this is a Romans/Garcia double today! 3-4 here.
DD 3,4/1,3,5,9
Race 8: #1 Icarus Win-Place, #3 Search Engine Win-Place, #5 Trident Hit, #9 Creative Minister
This is the strongest race on the card, but I want to take a shot with a price here, #1 Icarus. This 4yo gelding drew away from Barbers Road this past March at Oaklawn, who was an impressive next out winner. Was also his lone start going 9 furlongs. The next two starts he had to face Speed Bias and Seize The Night, then run in a 150k stakes race. I think this horse relishes the extra distance, draws the rail in a field with zero early speed, and has a fairly aggressive jockey early on. He should be near the lead and be able to sit a perfect trip. Be sure to include #3 Search Engine. Who has had some time off, been gelded since his last race and has had strong works. Also his one start at this level and distance were his career best. He could surprise here at a GIGANTIC price. For bigger tickets, include #5 Trident Hit and #9 Creative Minister. 1-3-5-9 in the nightcap.
*As always make these plays at your own risk, and make them for whatever amounts are suitable for you, this is how I would play them. Again good luck and have fun!
